Saturday, December 31, 2011

2011/2012 College Bowl Games: A look at conference performance thus far

Before the bowls started, I wrote up what records Vegas and my computer expected each conference to have as a way of judging performance once the games were complete.  As I wrote then, if a conference has a great record, that doesn't necessarily mean it is a great conference if they were all games they should have won.  Similarly if a conference has a poor record, the matchups could again mean they aren't that bad.

Below is the original table I posted updated with the results through 12/30 plus the Texas A&M/Northwestern game showing the actual records thus far in the last column.  This table will be kept up to date here.

ConferenceVegasComputerMost LikelyThru 12/30
SEC7-07-05-21-0
Big-126-27-16-25-1
Sun Belt2-11-21-21-1
Mtn West3-23-23-22-3
ACC4-42-63-52-2
Independents1-11-11-11-1
MAC2-34-13-23-1
C-USA2-33-23-22-1
Big-East2-31-42-31-1
WAC1-21-21-20-3
B1G3-61-94-61-2
Pac-121-63-43-40-3

No major surprises with most conference at or around what was expected.

The WAC is finished and they went 0-3 rather than the expected 1-2, Utah State losing the 1 point game to Ohio U.  The Mountain West is also finished and they too went a game under expected, 2-3 rather than 3-2.  Both of these conferences doing slightly worse than expected confirms they are among the weaker conferences.

Since there are still a bunch of key games to play, particularly for the big conferences, it is too early to make any real statements there, but the Big-12 is right on target with 2 games to go, the Big-12 has a bunch of games to go but early is on target, and the Pac-12 needs some help to get on target.

More later.