Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Preview - Mississippi State to win and cover

The Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Mississippi State against Wake Forest. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Mississippi State is ranked #30 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 73.680 against a schedule strength of 71.293. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being against Arkansas and best game being against Mississippi. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 8-0 picking winners in their games.



Wake Forest is ranked #67 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 66.367 against a schedule strength of 66.452. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent with a few downs, their worst game being at North Carolina and best game being against Florida State. They are 4-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.



Showing how little the SEC and ACC play, the teams are not separated by 2 degrees at all and are by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Mississippi_St-->Alabama-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Arkansas-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Auburn-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Georgia-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->Mississippi-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->South_Carolina-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest
3 Mississippi_St-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt-->Wake_Forest


The spread is Mississippi State by 6.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 7.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Mississippi State -6.5 over .. Wake Forest 7.3 0.8 0.808 0.539

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.