Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 Insight Bowl Preview - Oklahoma to win, Iowa to cover

The Insight Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Iowa against Oklahoma. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Iowa is ranked #41 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 71.753 against a schedule strength of 67.308. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being against Michigan State and best game being against Michigan. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-6 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Oklahoma is ranked #7 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 83.030 against a schedule strength of 73.611. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good except for their 3 losses, their worst game being against Texas Tech and best game being at Kansas State. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Iowa State and 3 degrees as follows:


2 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Indiana-->Ball_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Baylor-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Kansas-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Kansas_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Missouri-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Oklahoma_St-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Texas_A&M-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Texas-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Iowa_St-->Texas_Tech-->Oklahoma
3 Iowa-->Louisiana-Monroe-->Florida_St-->Oklahoma


Against Iowa State, Iowa lost 44-41 on the road and Oklahoma won 26-6.

The spread is Oklahoma by 14 and the computer agrees but not by as much picking them by 11.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Iowa +14.0 over *. Oklahoma 11.3 2.7 0.873 0.609

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.