Saturday, December 17, 2011

2011 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Preview

The R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl will take place on 12/17 pitting San Diego State against Louisiana-Lafayette.  A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

San Diego State is ranked #60 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 67.927 against a schedule strength of 63.764.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretyt good early but fell a bit and finished consistently around their current rating, their worst game being against Wyoming and best game being at Air Force.  They are 2-5-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-2 picking winners in their games.



Louisiana-Lafayette is ranked #95 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 61.578 against a schedule strength of 58.527.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were moderately consistent apart from 3 poor games, their worst game being against Florida Atlantic and best game being against North Texas.  They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-2 picking their games against the spread and 5-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees in only 1 way as follows:


3 San_Diego_St-->TCU-->Louisiana-Monroe-->Louisiana-Lafayette


The spread is San Diego State by 5 and the computer agrees picking them to cover.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

 *San Diego State          -5.0 over ..  Louisiana-Lafayette  6.3  1.3 0.827 0.580

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team.  The * denotes the pick to win the game.  The . is just a place holder.  The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports.  The team on the left is the pick against the spread.  The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by.  The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction.  The next column is the confidence of my pick to win.  The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.