Thursday, December 31, 2009

Midway point bowl game review

With just over half of the bowls now played, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the computer has done and how the conferences have done against expectations thus far.  As a reminder, I posted a conference summary preview a few weeks ago and that is what I'll be comparing the records thus far against.

As far as the computer goes, through the Navy/Missouri game, it is 12-6 against the spread and 9-9 picking winners.  That probably sounds backwards, but from what I can tell all the experts are mostly under 0.500 picking winners this season and Vegas is only 7-11 so I consider the 9-9 very good.  Here are the details:
  • Wyoming vs Fresno State - Picked Wyoming plus the points but didn't pick the upset.  1-0 and 0-1
  • Rutgers vs Central Florida - Picked Rutgers minus the points and got it and the win.  2-0 and 1-1
  • Southern Miss vs MTSU - Picked MTSU plus the points but not to win.  3-0 and 1-2
  • BYU vs Oregon State - Picked OSU minus the points and missed on both.  3-1 and 1-3
  • Utah vs California - Picked Utah in the upset and got it.  4-1 and 2-3
  • SMU vs Nevada - Picked SMU plus the points but not the upset.  5-1 and 2-4
  • Marshall vs Ohio U. - Picked Marshall plus the points but not the upset.  6-1 and 2-5
  • UNC vs Pitt - Picked Pitt by 2.2 and they won by 2 nailing it.  7-1 and 3-5
  • BC vs USC - Picked BC plus the points but USC to win.  7-2 and 4-5
  • Clemson vs Kentucky - Picked UK plus the points but not quite enough points.  7-3 and 5-5
  • TAMU vs Georgia - Picked TAMU plus the points and missed.  7-4 and 6-5
  • Temple vs UCLA - Picked UCLA minus the points and got it.  8-4 and 7-5
  • Miami vs Wisconsin - Picked Miami minus the points and missed.  8-5 and 7-6
  • Bowling Green vs Idaho - Picked BG minus the points and missed. 8-6 and 7-7
  • Nebraska vs Arizona - Picked Nebraska minus the points and got it.  9-6 and 8-7
  • Air Force vs Houston - Picked AF plus the points but not the upset.  10-6 and 8-8
  • Stanford vs Oklahoma - Picked Stanford plus the points and got it.  11-6 and 9-8
  • Missouri vs Navy - Picked Navy plus the points but not the upset.  12-6 and 9-9
As far as the conferences go, here is what was predicted and how they've done thus far:
  • SEC - 8-2 predicted and 1-1 thus far
  • Big-12 - 4-4 and 2-2
  • Pac-10 - 4-3 and 2-4
  • Big-Televen - 1-6 and 1-0
  • ACC - 4-3 and 1-3
  • Big-East - 4-3 and 2-0
  • C-USA - 2-4 and 2-3
  • Mountain-West - 2-3 and 4-0
  • MAC - 3-2 and 0-3
  • WAC - 2-2 and 1-2
  • Sun-Belt - 0-2 and 1-0
  • Independent - 0-1 and 1-0
Some conferences still have a bunch of games to go, but the Pac-10 and ACC are a bit behind the predictions, the MAC is well behind and the Mountain West has made a statement thus far and if TCU can win as expected will be 3 games over the prediction.

And based on the strength of the Mountain West thus far, if I were to recalculate the ratings today TCU would actually move to #2 ahead of both Florida and Texas.  Other big movers since the bowls started include Boise State down 3 due to their past opponents doing poorly, Nebraska up 6 after their shutout, Miami down 5 after their loss and the ACC's poor showing thus far, BYU up 16 after their win and the Mountain West doing well, Stanford down 7 after their loss and the Pac-10 doing a little under expectations, and it goes on similar to that for the rest of the teams in the conferences mentioned.

Interesting stuff.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Week 9 NBA Ratings/Rankings

If you read my earlier entry, you saw I've started posting college basketball ratings and rankings, and as you might expect I'm doing it for the NBA too.

Here are the current ratings/rankings through the 27th of December.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Boston 94.498 23-6 85.081 +1, -0.030
2 Cleveland 94.052 24-8 86.474 +4, +2.264
3 LA Lakers 93.671 24-5 85.141 -2, -1.000
4 Atlanta 93.410 21-8 86.029 -1, -0.364
5 Orlando 92.691 22-8 86.458 -1, +0.043
6 Dallas 91.912 22-9 86.734 -1, +0.060
7 Denver 91.035 20-11 85.701 +1, -0.121
8 Portland 90.709 20-12 86.876 +3, +1.088
9 Phoenix 90.682 19-12 87.476 -2, -0.967
9 San Antonio 90.682 17-11 85.926 +1, +0.473
11 Houston 89.894 18-13 88.619 -2, -0.848
12 Oklahoma City 89.423 15-14 88.251 +1, +0.377
13 Utah 89.392 17-13 86.965 -1, -0.062
14 Miami 88.305 16-12 86.473 +0, +1.460
15 Toronto 85.456 15-17 87.275 +6, +0.960
16 Memphis 85.272 13-16 87.183 +2, +0.316
17 Charlotte 85.236 11-17 86.615 +0, +0.274
18 Milwaukee 85.054 12-16 85.857 -3, -0.965
19 Sacramento 84.609 13-16 86.239 +1, -0.172
20 New Orleans 84.307 13-15 87.142 -1, -0.505
21 Detroit 83.755 11-19 87.725 -5, -1.564
22 Washington 83.200 10-18 86.679 +2, +0.364
23 LA Clippers 83.090 13-17 86.260 -1, -0.373
24 New York 83.014 11-19 86.224 -1, -0.269
25 Chicago 82.190 11-17 87.617 +1, +0.063
26 Philadelphia 81.633 7-22 87.443 -1, -0.645
27 Golden State 81.625 8-21 87.284 +1, -0.045
28 Indiana 81.187 9-20 86.783 -1, -0.626
29 Minnesota 77.918 7-24 87.237 +0, +0.640
30 New Jersey 74.051 2-28 87.302 +0, -0.201

2009 Week 17 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 17 (games played thru 27-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Ten games down, 24 to go!  And with some upsets and surprises in the bowl games, there have been some changes in the ratings and rankings.

There is no change at the very top with Alabama and Florida staying #1 and #2, but behind them there is a swap with TCU moving ahead of Texas due to prior opponents Wyoming, BYU, Utah, SMU, and Clemson doing well in their games.  It really couldn't have gone much better for TCU in this regard.  Texas actually improved their rating a bit too as Wyoming was a prior opponent, but not enough to stay #3.

The computer has continued the outstanding start to the bowl season going 7-3 against the spread.  It did slow down a bit as it was 7-1 but missed the last two games narrowly.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. See the bowl game previews posted thus far and subscribe if you want to get them e-mailed to you well in advance of the games.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 92.075 13-0 72.228 +0, -0.094
2 Florida 87.273 12-1 71.321 +0, -0.096
3 TCU 87.033 12-0 66.152 +1, +1.255
4 Texas 86.689 13-0 69.736 -1, +0.208
5 Virginia Tech 82.733 9-3 72.894 +0, +0.122
6 Arkansas 81.826 7-5 72.947 +1, -0.048
7 Oregon 81.508 10-2 71.725 -1, -0.944
8 Cincinnati 81.225 12-0 66.615 +0, -0.498
9 LSU 81.030 9-3 72.535 +1, -0.174
10 Boise St 80.733 13-0 61.603 -1, -0.713
11 Oklahoma 80.682 7-5 70.887 +0, +0.418
12 Georgia Tech 80.131 11-2 72.728 +0, +0.125
13 Miami FL 79.356 9-3 71.832 +0, +0.181
14 Texas Tech 79.249 8-4 68.242 +0, +0.274
15 Clemson 78.727 9-5 71.231 +3, +0.430
16 Nebraska 78.256 9-4 69.224 +3, +0.126
17 Ohio State 78.051 10-2 65.902 +0, -0.302
18 Mississippi 78.014 8-4 70.268 +2, -0.016
19 Pittsburgh 77.707 10-3 68.846 +2, -0.118
20 Tennessee 77.578 7-5 70.814 +2, -0.221
21 Stanford 77.436 8-4 69.712 -5, -1.072
22 Brigham Young 77.371 11-2 67.671 +12, +2.704
23 Auburn 77.360 7-5 72.930 +0, -0.150
24 Penn State 76.677 10-2 64.096 +1, -0.286
25 Arizona 76.391 8-4 71.089 -1, -1.005
26 Southern Cal 76.293 9-4 70.925 +0, -0.461
27 Utah 76.057 10-3 66.851 +8, +1.532
28 Oregon St 76.033 8-5 70.345 -13, -2.823
29 Oklahoma St 76.023 9-3 68.970 -2, +0.177
30 North Carolina 75.628 8-5 69.982 -2, +0.045
31 Georgia 75.281 7-5 73.886 -1, -0.147
32 West Virginia 75.231 9-3 69.558 +0, +0.083
33 South Carolina 75.163 7-5 73.735 -2, -0.046
34 Iowa 75.154 10-2 67.568 -5, -0.354
35 Connecticut 74.802 7-5 69.057 -2, -0.171
36 Mississippi St 74.444 5-7 73.566 +1, +0.010
37 Kentucky 74.020 7-6 70.272 -1, -0.494
38 Rutgers 73.048 9-4 62.564 +1, +0.003
39 Florida St 72.947 6-6 73.465 +1, +0.260
40 Houston 72.727 10-3 64.046 +8, +0.824
41 California 72.509 8-5 70.810 -3, -1.563
42 Texas A&M 72.475 6-6 69.962 +3, +0.165
43 Missouri 72.238 8-4 68.628 +0, -0.192
44 Central Michigan 72.166 11-2 60.640 -3, -0.431
45 Air Force 72.100 7-5 64.900 +6, +0.723
46 Boston College 71.837 8-5 69.152 -4, -0.683
47 Wisconsin 71.777 9-3 65.421 -1, -0.346
48 Wake Forest 71.546 5-7 71.072 +1, -0.027
49 Washington 71.330 5-7 71.773 -5, -1.076
50 Notre Dame 71.329 6-6 69.307 -3, -0.627
51 South Florida 71.108 7-5 67.235 +1, -0.020
52 East Carolina 70.953 9-4 67.101 +2, +0.809
53 UCLA 70.572 6-6 71.724 -3, -0.844
54 Navy 70.142 9-4 65.080 +1, +0.192
55 Michigan St 69.329 6-6 66.852 +1, -0.327
56 Troy 68.815 9-3 62.694 +2, +0.106
57 Kansas 68.718 5-7 69.736 +2, +0.203
58 Arizona St 68.405 4-8 68.791 -1, -1.009
59 Middle Tennessee St 68.023 10-3 60.745 +2, +0.174
60 Nevada 67.836 8-5 64.057 -7, -2.631
61 Virginia 67.794 3-9 73.414 +1, +0.073
62 Minnesota 67.585 6-6 69.359 -2, -0.319
63 Iowa St 67.553 6-6 66.766 +0, +0.020
64 Kansas St 67.488 6-6 67.622 +0, +0.013
65 Central Florida 67.240 8-5 65.674 +4, +0.561
66 Southern Miss 66.886 7-6 63.043 +7, +0.590
67 SMU 66.738 8-5 64.703 +16, +3.208
68 Fresno St 66.673 8-5 64.704 -3, -0.617
69 Temple 66.663 9-3 60.449 -2, -0.222
70 Baylor 66.612 4-8 71.176 +0, +0.051
71 Purdue 66.570 5-7 67.446 -5, -0.339
72 Duke 66.498 5-7 68.123 -1, +0.063
73 Northwestern 66.407 8-4 62.780 -5, -0.297
74 North Carolina St 66.232 5-7 67.353 +0, -0.022
75 Bowling Green 65.650 7-5 63.673 +1, -0.152
76 Ohio U. 65.633 9-5 62.404 -4, -0.728
77 Louisiana Tech 65.441 4-8 65.002 -2, -0.652
78 Marshall 65.094 7-6 66.464 +2, +1.267
79 Syracuse 64.956 4-8 68.726 -2, -0.126
80 Wyoming 64.296 7-6 68.311 +0, +0.469
81 Northern Illinois 64.221 7-5 58.537 -3, -0.359
82 Maryland 63.872 2-10 70.720 -3, -0.086
83 Colorado 63.859 3-9 70.523 -1, +0.102
84 Alabama-Birmingham 63.621 5-7 66.088 +3, +0.778
85 Vanderbilt 63.286 2-10 71.575 +1, +0.004
86 Illinois 63.083 3-9 68.209 -2, -0.316
87 Michigan 63.026 5-7 63.951 -2, -0.322
88 Louisville 62.859 4-8 68.585 +0, +0.108
89 UNLV 62.801 5-7 66.745 +0, +0.189
90 Tulsa 62.694 5-7 63.580 +4, +0.924
91 Buffalo 62.084 5-7 62.242 -1, -0.147
92 UTEP 61.859 4-8 63.623 +4, +0.833
93 Utah St 61.817 4-8 66.037 -2, -0.371
94 Indiana 61.778 4-8 65.610 -2, -0.263
95 Idaho 61.393 7-5 63.581 -2, -0.602
96 San Diego St 61.341 4-8 65.851 +1, +0.358
97 Hawaii 60.799 6-7 62.463 -2, -0.502
98 Colorado St 60.052 3-9 67.447 +0, +0.176
99 Florida Atlantic 58.799 5-7 62.110 +1, +0.176
100 Kent St 58.717 5-7 60.127 -1, -0.241
101 Louisiana-Monroe 58.057 6-6 61.356 +1, -0.026
102 Western Michigan 57.999 5-7 60.338 -1, -0.242
103 Toledo 57.262 5-7 61.994 +0, -0.203
104 Memphis 56.996 2-10 66.576 +0, +0.659
105 Arkansas St 55.649 4-8 59.152 +1, +0.089
106 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.643 6-6 60.787 -1, +0.071
107 Army 55.486 5-7 60.346 +0, +0.111
108 Ball St 54.450 2-10 62.075 +1, -0.201
109 Tulane 54.446 3-9 65.458 +2, +0.877
110 Washington St 54.371 1-11 72.445 -2, -0.423
111 Akron 53.617 3-9 61.999 -1, -0.268
112 Miami OH 53.269 1-11 66.968 +0, -0.287
113 Rice 53.188 2-10 67.415 +4, +0.758
114 New Mexico 53.124 1-11 68.829 +1, +0.385
115 North Texas 53.122 2-10 60.942 -2, +0.021
116 Florida Int'l 52.576 3-9 64.988 +0, +0.051
117 San Jose St 52.252 2-10 66.431 -3, -0.585
118 New Mexico St 50.476 3-10 63.434 +0, -0.344
119 Western Kentucky 46.095 0-12 61.818 +0, +0.073
120 Eastern Michigan 45.457 0-12 63.153 +0, -0.204

Week 7 College Basketball Ratings/Rankings

Yes, I am now tracking college basketball!  Presently just ratings/rankings are posted but I'm working on doing predictions and projections too and hope to have a newsletter soon.  Let me know what you'd be interested in seeing by leaving a comment.

As there are many more division I college basketball teams than I-A football teams, I won't list the full rankings on the blog but will just include the top-50 here.  See the full list on the site.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Texas99.11511-077.527+0, +0.352
2Syracuse98.20312-074.595+0, -0.397
3Duke96.7759-178.763+0, -0.759
4Kansas94.97211-074.442+0, +0.820
5West Virginia94.29310-079.199+0, +1.023
6Kansas St92.44510-179.457+0, -0.727
7Purdue91.91111-074.864+0, -0.028
8Kentucky90.25813-076.170+12, +1.531
9Villanova90.13011-175.947+3, -0.315
10Georgetown DC90.0439-177.559+16, +1.665
11Temple89.7929-281.985+3, +0.272
12Minnesota89.7379-375.003+1, +0.198
13Mississippi89.56010-277.609-2, -0.950
14Clemson89.47811-276.763+4, +0.645
15Brigham Young89.47512-174.279+14, +1.461
16North Carolina89.4669-377.816+21, +2.261
17California89.2966-483.501-7, -1.494
18Mississippi St89.23810-275.737+6, +0.759
19Michigan St89.0799-377.793-3, +0.041
20Miami FL88.79111-172.443-3, -0.046
21Alabama-Birmingham88.78211-176.092+9, +0.787
22Ohio State88.75010-272.695-7, -0.633
23Connecticut88.4449-277.683+2, +0.035
24Memphis88.3298-272.433-2, -0.280
25St Mary's CA88.32610-279.064-17, -3.026
26New Mexico88.23612-177.150-17, -2.567
27Old Dominion88.2168-479.470+24, +2.325
28Wake Forest87.8418-276.797+5, +0.021
29Texas A&M87.8348-379.991-10, -0.940
30Washington87.8289-278.184+5, +0.540
31Missouri87.7699-374.257+24, +2.377
32Northwestern87.58910-174.723+6, +0.525
33Wisconsin87.54610-276.838-6, -0.603
34Gonzaga87.1307-380.935+2, -0.108
35Seton Hall86.9949-273.057+7, +0.335
36Marquette86.9929-373.283+8, +0.502
37Georgia Tech86.7889-274.774+15, +0.907
38Texas Tech86.77510-175.089+7, +0.355
39Butler86.7058-483.032+1, -0.112
40Tennessee86.4969-274.818+16, +1.122
41St John's NY86.27710-277.555-18, -2.304
42Rhode Island86.2629-177.083+5, +0.028
43Xavier OH86.1067-480.200-2, -0.644
44Dayton86.0579-278.512+14, +0.821
45Cincinnati86.0348-376.773+4, +0.078
46Pittsburgh86.01510-276.606+24, +1.445
47William & Mary85.9837-281.175-4, -0.631
48Northern Iowa85.9659-175.736+5, +0.229
49Cornell NY85.9019-281.253+22, +1.528
50Florida85.8698-375.241-29, -2.762

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Bowl Games Thus Far

The bowl games played thus far have been entertaining and there have been a few upsets, as evidenced by the computer and Vegas doing poorly picking winners, but I'm please to say that the computer is cleaning up against the spread going 7-1 thus far.

I've posted a summary for all the bowl game previews which are posted right around the start of each game, and if you want to get them sooner, subscribe to the newsletter and get the rest of the previews well in advance of the games, and also get all the details for the rest of the NFL season.

BC and USC have just started so take a look at the preview for that game here.

Friday, December 25, 2009

2009 Week 16 NFL Preview

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

With 2 weeks to go in the season, the playoff picture is coming in to focus, but there are a few teams still trying to make it in and others wanting to secure a top seed so we still have some interesting games this weekend.

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer is coming off 3 great weeks going 11-5, 12-4, and 10-6 against the spread making the season total 133-86-5.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, locks, performance charts, and more, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

In the highlighted games last week, the computer went 2-1 ATS.  Let's see how it does this week.


In what is possibly a loser out situation, certainly for the Steelers, Baltimore visits Pittsburgh with the home team favored by 3.  The computer is picking the upset here, narrowly, with Baltimore the pick by 0.6.

Two teams presently in the playoffs and wanting to stay there are Denver and Philly, and with the former visiting the latter, the Eagles have the better shot of staying there, Vegas picking them by 6.5 and the computer by 7.6.
Jacksonville is presently 7th in the AFC and does not control their own destiny, but if they were able to beat the Patriots this weekend, with Cleveland up last they have a great shot at 9-7, and with Baltimore and Denver having tough games this week, could be positioned well.  The trouble is New England is favored by 7.5 and my computer says that isn't near enough setting the margin at 11.5.



Enjoy the games.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Early Superbowl Predictions

With 2 weeks to go before we know the playoff teams for sure, we actually have a pretty good idea of who will make it and so I thought it would be interesting to plug the current projected playoff contenders into my Superbowl projections and see what popped out.

Using my computer's current projections the AFC teams are Indianaplis, San Diego, New England, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Denver, and in the NFC they are New Orleans, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona, Green Bay, and Dallas.  By going through all the permutations of who could meet who, the chance of each scenario occurring, and the chance a team wins the various games, my computer can calculate the chance that any given team gets to the Superbowl and also wins it.

With that as a lead in, let's just get to the results.  From the table below, using the week 15 ratings, it is no surprise Indianapolis and New Orleans are odds on favorites to get to the Superbowl, both at over a 50% chance.  As the Saints are rated slightly higher presently, they have a slightly better chance at getting there (57.5% to 54.2%) but interestingly the Colts have a better chance of winning the Superbowl.  This is because the rest of the NFC is a bit weaker in general than the AFC and the rest of those teams do have a 45.8% and 42.5% chance of being the opponent so that factors in.

It also isn't a surprise that the other division winners that would have home field advantage are the next 4.  Those teams that have to go on the road the first week have a pretty slim chance of getting to the Superbowl let alone winning it.

For what it's worth, last year at the end of the regular season Tennessee and Pittsburgh were virtually tied at 19.7% and 19.4% chance of winning and Arizona had only a 6% chance of even getting to the big game.  It is interesting that that is right about where Arizona is again this year!

I'll update these next week and then again at the end of the regular season.

Team
Conference
Superbowl
Indianapolis
0.542
0.319
New Orleans
0.575
0.238
San Diego
0.212
0.129
New England
0.146
0.084
Minnesota
0.180
0.067
Philadelphia
0.135
0.059
Baltimore
0.047
0.029
Cincinnati
0.033
0.023
Arizona
0.054
0.019
Denver
0.020
0.013
Green Bay
0.030
0.010
Dallas
0.026
0.010

Monday, December 21, 2009

2009 Week 15 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 15 of the NFL season is complete and with some surprising games there is some movements in the rankings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there is only 1.  But remarkably they are not ranked #1!  The Saints did drop over 1.2 ratings points but had a bit lead coming in and the Colts also dropped 0.75 leaving them still about a rating point behind.

Behind them, New England remains #3 but beyond that we finally have some changes.  Minnesota drops all the way to #8 leaving room for the Eagles, Chargers, and Dallas to move up.  In the second 10, Atlanta and the Giants both move up 6 spots while the 49ers, Broncos, and Houston all drop quite a bit.

The computer had a third straight great week against the spread going 10-6 after 12-4 and 11-5 the last 2 weeks.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
New Orleans
90.327
13-1
80.495
+0, -1.202
2
Indianapolis
89.288
14-0
80.910
+0, -0.756
3
New England
87.253
9-5
82.445
+0, +0.348
4
Philadelphia
86.598
10-4
80.609
+1, +1.212
5
San Diego
85.309
11-3
80.012
+1, +0.277
6
Dallas
85.015
9-5
81.012
+6, +2.114
7
Baltimore
84.231
8-6
79.863
+0, +0.280
8
Minnesota
83.992
11-3
78.197
-4, -2.193
9
Arizona
83.125
9-5
79.751
-1, -0.619
10
NY Jets
82.984
7-7
81.693
-1, -0.282
11
Green Bay
82.871
9-5
78.252
-1, -0.352
12
Atlanta
82.503
7-7
82.997
+6, +1.386
13
NY Giants
82.492
8-6
81.960
+6, +1.686
14
Miami
82.294
7-7
83.643
+3, +0.143
15
Houston
82.183
7-7
80.798
-4, -0.811
16
Cincinnati
82.174
9-5
79.723
+0, -0.080
17
Tennessee
82.120
7-7
82.051
-2, -0.379
18
Denver
81.970
8-6
81.314
-4, -0.650
19
San Francisco
81.481
6-8
80.895
-6, -1.189
20
Carolina
81.267
6-8
82.588
+3, +2.290
21
Pittsburgh
80.592
7-7
79.199
-1, -0.051
22
Buffalo
79.331
5-9
81.934
-1, -0.077
23
Jacksonville
78.753
7-7
80.747
-1, -0.402
24
Washington
77.696
4-10
80.396
+0, -0.514
25
Chicago
76.656
5-9
80.032
+0, -0.963
26
Tampa Bay
76.305
2-12
82.854
+3, +2.218
27
Oakland
75.490
5-9
81.563
+1, +1.240
28
Seattle
75.054
5-9
79.522
-2, -2.025
29
Cleveland
74.260
3-11
80.957
+1, +0.656
30
Kansas City
73.798
3-11
80.467
-3, -0.565
31
St Louis
71.213
1-13
80.577
+0, -0.681
32
Detroit
69.479
2-12
80.647
+0, -0.751

Continued outstanding picks against the spread

The NFL week still has one game to go and the bowl season has just started, but the computer has been doing outstanding the last few weeks picking games against the spread.

In the NFL, the last three weeks have been 11-5, 12-4, and 10-5 (with one game to play), a 33-14 record or over 70%.  Each weeks predicted winner and margin appears here.

In college, the last three weeks have been 13-4, 1-0, and 3-0 in the bowls thus far.  That is an even better 17-4 or over 80% rate.  Each weeks predicted winner and margin appears here.

But if you want more information than just the predicted winner and margin, take a look at a newsletter subscription.  Each week subscribers receive detailed information on each pick including the pick against the spread, confidence in the pick, performance charts for each team (see below for an example), and more.  And for the bowl games and NFL playoffs, game by game previews are sent out in advance of the games.  See the previews for the games thus far here.

I've included a current performance chart for Denver as it shows how they have essentially played like two different teams in their wins and losses.


2009 Week 16 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 16 (games played thru 20-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With three bowl games played and the Division II and FCS playoffs complete, the ratings have been updated a bit.

There is no change in the top 6 positions but based on Fresno State doing worse than expected, Boise State falls 2 spots to #9.  Farther down the rankings Utah moves up 2 spots based on Wyoming's win and Houston drops 5 spots based on Southern Miss's loss.

And the computer has had an outstanding start to the bowl season going 3-0 against the spread.  It isn't doing so well picking winners going 1-2 but Vegas is 1-2 as well.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this. See the bowl game previews posted thus far and subscribe if you want to get them e-mailed to you well in advance of the games.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 92.169 13-0 72.305 +0, +0.097
2 Florida 87.369 12-1 71.382 +0, +0.116
3 Texas 86.481 13-0 69.492 +0, -0.045
4 TCU 85.778 12-0 65.291 +0, +0.392
5 Virginia Tech 82.611 9-3 72.743 +0, +0.002
6 Oregon 82.452 10-2 72.541 +0, +0.020
7 Arkansas 81.874 7-5 72.995 +1, +0.118
8 Cincinnati 81.723 12-0 66.967 +1, +0.346
9 Boise St 81.446 13-0 62.125 -2, -0.383
10 LSU 81.204 9-3 72.645 +0, +0.072
11 Oklahoma 80.264 7-5 70.467 +0, -0.006
12 Georgia Tech 80.006 11-2 72.611 +0, +0.081
13 Miami FL 79.175 9-3 71.662 +0, -0.028
14 Texas Tech 78.975 8-4 67.962 +0, -0.063
15 Oregon St 78.856 8-4 70.478 +0, +0.075
16 Stanford 78.508 8-4 70.660 +0, +0.045
17 Ohio State 78.353 10-2 66.182 +0, -0.044
18 Clemson 78.297 8-5 70.916 +0, +0.203
19 Nebraska 78.130 9-4 69.104 +0, +0.051
20 Mississippi 78.030 8-4 70.201 +0, +0.052
21 Pittsburgh 77.825 9-3 68.378 +1, +0.382
22 Tennessee 77.799 7-5 70.971 -1, +0.066
23 Auburn 77.510 7-5 73.091 +0, +0.085
24 Arizona 77.396 8-4 72.006 +0, +0.038
25 Penn State 76.963 10-2 64.350 +0, -0.011
26 Southern Cal 76.754 8-4 71.872 +0, +0.032
27 Oklahoma St 75.846 9-3 68.761 +0, -0.036
28 North Carolina 75.583 8-4 69.270 +1, +0.046
29 Iowa 75.508 10-2 67.843 -1, -0.033
30 Georgia 75.428 7-5 74.041 +0, +0.078
31 South Carolina 75.209 7-5 73.780 +0, +0.126
32 West Virginia 75.148 9-3 69.458 +0, +0.343
33 Connecticut 74.973 7-5 69.210 +0, +0.373
34 Brigham Young 74.667 10-2 66.452 +1, +0.352
35 Utah 74.525 9-3 66.007 +2, +0.358
36 Kentucky 74.514 7-5 69.642 -2, +0.126
37 Mississippi St 74.434 5-7 73.559 -1, +0.170
38 California 74.072 8-4 71.215 +0, +0.062
39 Rutgers 73.045 9-4 62.572 +9, +1.510
40 Florida St 72.687 6-6 73.246 +0, +0.160
41 Central Michigan 72.597 11-2 60.985 -2, +0.023
42 Boston College 72.520 8-4 68.600 +0, +0.086
43 Missouri 72.430 8-4 68.810 -2, -0.012
44 Washington 72.406 5-7 72.735 +0, +0.027
45 Texas A&M 72.310 6-6 69.795 +0, +0.002
46 Wisconsin 72.123 9-3 65.753 +0, -0.149
47 Notre Dame 71.956 6-6 69.926 +0, +0.038
48 Houston 71.903 10-3 63.294 -5, -0.488
49 Wake Forest 71.573 5-7 71.117 +0, +0.084
50 UCLA 71.416 6-6 72.576 +0, +0.060
51 Air Force 71.377 7-5 64.304 +0, +0.362
52 South Florida 71.128 7-5 67.251 +1, +0.430
53 Nevada 70.467 8-4 64.237 -1, -0.299
54 East Carolina 70.144 9-4 66.339 +0, -0.421
55 Navy 69.950 9-4 64.892 +0, -0.040
56 Michigan St 69.656 6-6 67.176 +0, -0.026
57 Arizona St 69.414 4-8 69.656 +0, +0.074
58 Troy 68.709 9-3 62.602 +2, +0.438
59 Kansas 68.515 5-7 69.530 +0, -0.106
60 Minnesota 67.904 6-6 69.651 +2, +0.019
61 Middle Tennessee St 67.849 10-3 60.578 +10, +1.392
62 Virginia 67.721 3-9 73.262 +1, -0.028
63 Iowa St 67.533 6-6 66.748 +2, +0.030
64 Kansas St 67.475 6-6 67.588 +2, +0.061
65 Fresno St 67.290 8-5 65.252 -7, -1.567
66 Purdue 66.909 5-7 67.832 +1, -0.040
67 Temple 66.885 9-3 60.638 +1, -0.001
68 Northwestern 66.704 8-4 63.045 +1, -0.022
69 Central Florida 66.679 8-5 65.147 -8, -1.582
70 Baylor 66.561 4-8 71.105 +0, +0.036
71 Duke 66.435 5-7 68.060 +2, +0.058
72 Ohio U. 66.361 9-4 62.409 +2, +0.048
73 Southern Miss 66.296 7-6 62.482 -9, -1.368
74 North Carolina St 66.254 5-7 67.351 +1, +0.146
75 Louisiana Tech 66.093 4-8 65.535 -3, -0.356
76 Bowling Green 65.802 7-5 63.843 +0, -0.002
77 Syracuse 65.082 4-8 68.875 +0, +0.361
78 Northern Illinois 64.580 7-5 58.852 +0, -0.018
79 Maryland 63.958 2-10 70.818 +2, +0.327
80 Marshall 63.827 6-6 65.821 -1, -0.442
80 Wyoming 63.827 7-6 67.754 +12, +1.643
82 Colorado 63.757 3-9 70.420 +1, +0.250
83 SMU 63.530 7-5 63.746 -3, -0.297
84 Illinois 63.399 3-9 68.520 -2, -0.172
85 Michigan 63.348 5-7 64.253 -1, -0.052
86 Vanderbilt 63.282 2-10 71.589 +0, +0.043
87 Alabama-Birmingham 62.843 5-7 65.328 -2, -0.403
88 Louisville 62.751 4-8 68.508 +0, +0.344
89 UNLV 62.612 5-7 66.607 +2, +0.332
90 Buffalo 62.231 5-7 62.351 -1, -0.095
91 Utah St 62.188 4-8 66.225 -4, -0.275
92 Indiana 62.041 4-8 65.855 +2, -0.054
93 Duke 66.435 5-7 68.060 -20, +0.058
94 Virginia 67.721 3-9 73.262 -31, -0.028
95 Idaho 61.995 7-5 64.191 -5, -0.299
96 Washington St 54.794 1-11 73.172 +12, -0.054
97 Wisconsin 72.123 9-3 65.753 -51, -0.149
98 West Virginia 75.148 9-3 69.458 -66, +0.343
99 Wyoming 63.827 7-6 67.754 -7, +1.643
100 Louisville 62.751 4-8 68.508 -12, +0.344
101 Kentucky 74.514 7-5 69.642 -67, +0.126
102 New Mexico St 50.820 3-10 63.851 +16, -0.288
103 Texas 86.481 13-0 69.492 -100, -0.045
104 Central Florida 66.679 8-5 65.147 -43, -1.582
105 Virginia Tech 82.611 9-3 72.743 -100, +0.002
106 East Carolina 70.144 9-4 66.339 -52, -0.421
107 Cincinnati 81.723 12-0 66.967 -98, +0.346
108 TCU 85.778 12-0 65.291 -104, +0.392
109 Tulane 53.569 3-9 64.474 +1, -0.433
110 Arizona St 69.414 4-8 69.656 -53, +0.074
111 Arkansas 81.874 7-5 72.995 -103, +0.118
112 Army 55.375 5-7 60.240 -7, +0.167
113 Boise St 81.446 13-0 62.125 -106, -0.383
114 UCLA 71.416 6-6 72.576 -64, +0.060
115 Florida Int'l 52.525 3-9 64.964 +2, +0.544
116 Syracuse 65.082 4-8 68.875 -39, +0.361
117 Notre Dame 71.956 6-6 69.926 -70, +0.038
118 Pittsburgh 77.825 9-3 68.378 -96, +0.382
119 Purdue 66.909 5-7 67.832 -52, -0.040
120 Stanford 78.508 8-4 70.660 -104, +0.045
45 Texas A&M 72.310 6-6 69.795 +0, +0.002
46 Wisconsin 72.123 9-3 65.753 +0, -0.149
47 Notre Dame 71.956 6-6 69.926 +0, +0.038
48 Houston 71.903 10-3 63.294 -5, -0.488
49 Wake Forest 71.573 5-7 71.117 +0, +0.084
50 UCLA 71.416 6-6 72.576 +0, +0.060
51 Air Force 71.377 7-5 64.304 +0, +0.362
52 South Florida 71.128 7-5 67.251 +1, +0.430
53 Nevada 70.467 8-4 64.237 -1, -0.299
54 East Carolina 70.144 9-4 66.339 +0, -0.421
55 Navy 69.950 9-4 64.892 +0, -0.040
56 Michigan St 69.656 6-6 67.176 +0, -0.026
57 Arizona St 69.414 4-8 69.656 +0, +0.074
58 Troy 68.709 9-3 62.602 +2, +0.438
59 Kansas 68.515 5-7 69.530 +0, -0.106
60 Minnesota 67.904 6-6 69.651 +2, +0.019
61 Middle Tennessee St 67.849 10-3 60.578 +10, +1.392
62 Virginia 67.721 3-9 73.262 +1, -0.028
63 Iowa St 67.533 6-6 66.748 +2, +0.030
64 Kansas St 67.475 6-6 67.588 +2, +0.061
65 Fresno St 67.290 8-5 65.252 -7, -1.567
66 Purdue 66.909 5-7 67.832 +1, -0.040
67 Temple 66.885 9-3 60.638 +1, -0.001
68 Northwestern 66.704 8-4 63.045 +1, -0.022
69 Central Florida 66.679 8-5 65.147 -8, -1.582
70 Baylor 66.561 4-8 71.105 +0, +0.036
71 Duke 66.435 5-7 68.060 +2, +0.058
72 Ohio U. 66.361 9-4 62.409 +2, +0.048
73 Southern Miss 66.296 7-6 62.482 -9, -1.368
74 North Carolina St 66.254 5-7 67.351 +1, +0.146
75 Louisiana Tech 66.093 4-8 65.535 -3, -0.356
76 Bowling Green 65.802 7-5 63.843 +0, -0.002
77 Syracuse 65.082 4-8 68.875 +0, +0.361
78 Northern Illinois 64.580 7-5 58.852 +0, -0.018
79 Maryland 63.958 2-10 70.818 +2, +0.327
80 Marshall 63.827 6-6 65.821 -1, -0.442
80 Wyoming 63.827 7-6 67.754 +12, +1.643
82 Colorado 63.757 3-9 70.420 +1, +0.250
83 SMU 63.530 7-5 63.746 -3, -0.297
84 Illinois 63.399 3-9 68.520 -2, -0.172
85 Michigan 63.348 5-7 64.253 -1, -0.052
86 Vanderbilt 63.282 2-10 71.589 +0, +0.043
87 Alabama-Birmingham 62.843 5-7 65.328 -2, -0.403
88 Louisville 62.751 4-8 68.508 +0, +0.344
89 UNLV 62.612 5-7 66.607 +2, +0.332
90 Buffalo 62.231 5-7 62.351 -1, -0.095
91 Utah St 62.188 4-8 66.225 -4, -0.275
92 Indiana 62.041 4-8 65.855 +2, -0.054
93 Idaho 61.995 7-5 64.191 -3, -0.299
94 Tulsa 61.770 5-7 62.847 -1, -0.399
95 Hawaii 61.301 6-7 62.987 +0, -0.308
96 UTEP 61.026 4-8 62.855 +0, -0.353
97 San Diego St 60.983 4-8 65.381 +0, +0.337
98 Colorado St 59.876 3-9 67.069 +0, +0.376
99 Kent St 58.958 5-7 60.368 +0, +0.009
100 Florida Atlantic 58.623 5-7 61.952 +1, +0.562
101 Western Michigan 58.241 5-7 60.589 -1, -0.001
102 Louisiana-Monroe 58.083 6-6 61.399 +0, +0.548
103 Toledo 57.465 5-7 62.210 +0, +0.083
104 Memphis 56.337 2-10 66.024 +0, -0.393
105 Louisiana-Lafayette 55.572 6-6 60.733 +1, +0.509
106 Arkansas St 55.560 4-8 59.106 +1, +0.583
107 Army 55.375 5-7 60.240 -2, +0.167
108 Washington St 54.794 1-11 73.172 +0, -0.054
109 Ball St 54.651 2-10 62.287 +0, +0.076
110 Akron 53.885 3-9 62.265 +1, +0.027
111 Tulane 53.569 3-9 64.474 -1, -0.433
112 Miami OH 53.556 1-11 67.326 +0, +0.007
113 North Texas 53.101 2-10 60.958 +2, +0.489
114 San Jose St 52.837 2-10 66.974 -1, -0.309
115 New Mexico 52.739 1-11 68.127 +1, +0.300
116 Florida Int'l 52.525 3-9 64.964 +1, +0.544
117 Rice 52.430 2-10 66.626 -3, -0.430
118 New Mexico St 50.820 3-10 63.851 +0, -0.288
119 Western Kentucky 46.022 0-12 61.760 +1, +0.494
120 Eastern Michigan 45.661 0-12 63.380 -1, +0.043

Sunday, December 20, 2009

2009 Week 15 NFL Preview

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer is coming off 2 great weeks going 11-5 then 12-4 against the spread making the season total 123-80-5.  It also went 11-5 picking winners last week beating Vegas at 9-6.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, locks, performance charts, and more, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

The computer already picked the Indy game correct but missed on the Saints last night when they had a slow start, a few turnovers, and a drop in the end zone.

Today, the 49ers visit Philly with the Eagles favored by 9 but the computer picking them by 5.7.  You have to think the 49ers won't do well in the snow/cold but at least the game has been moved to the late game as the early game is usually the downfall of the west coast teams.

Green Bay visits Pittsburgh and even with the Steelers headed south and Green Bay improving, the Steelers are favored by 2.5 due to the game being in Pittsburgh.  The computer does give them a 0.4 edge but 2.5 is too many points it says.  The charts for the two teams are very telling.







And Cincinnati visits San Diego in what could be a playoff matchup preview.  Vegas likes the Chargers by 7 and the computer likes them by 5.8.  The Chargers have been improving and the Bengals faltering a bit (subscribe to see charts), so this game will really depend on if the Bengals get it back together or not.

Enjoy the games.