Sunday, December 27, 2015

2015 USTA League team winning scenario percentages - Interesting tennis league stats

A question was asked on Talk Tennis about how often a team wins a match by winning the three doubles courts while losing the two singles courts.  I calculated the answer to that (5.9%), but that naturally caused me to look at all the other scenarios a team could win a match with.

For this analysis, I looked at all 2015 championship year 18 & over and 40 & over matches that were a 2 singles and 3 doubles.

To start, there are three scores a team can win a 2 singles / 3 doubles match with: 5-0, 4-1, and 3-2.   There is only one way to win 5-0, five ways to win 4-1, and ten ways to win 3-2.

Here is a chart showing the percentage each one occurred along with what would be expected based on the number of permutations for each score.


Somewhat surprisingly, teams winning 5-0 occurs a lot more often than expected.  I've done double checking of the data and I am not including defaults or retirements, so I think it is accurate.  Even 4-1 occurs more often than expected while a 3-2 score occurs most often, but less than expected.

But what about each specific winning scenario?  There are 16 of these, and the chart below shows how often each one occurs.


The x-axis is showing the courts won in the order singles 1 and 2, then doubles 1 thru 3, e.g. 11110 is winning all courts but 3rd court doubles.

Since there are 16 potential results, if each one was equally likely, you'd expect each to be at 6.25%, but we see winning all the courts is again a lot higher, and the 5 4-1 scenarios are all over, and then all of the 3-2 scenarios are under.

I'm not sure exactly what this tells us other than close 3-2 matches are less common than you'd expect.

What do you think?  Is this consistent with what you see in your league?


Sunday, December 20, 2015

2013 - 2015 USTA League participation by year, division/league, and gender, USTA League players are aging - Interesting tennis league stats

I took a look at how participation in USTA League has changed the past three years, specifically looking at the number of unique players playing in all of the advancing 18 & over, 40 & over, 55 & over, and 65 & over divisions/leagues.  The natural next step was to look at the numbers for each division, so here goes.

First, here is the 18 & over division.


The trend here is similar to the overall trend, the drop here being just over 3% since 2013.

Here is the 40 & over division.


Interestingly, while the totals for this division are lower than the 18 & over as you might expect, the unique players in this league has grown each year!  Participation is up nearly 7% since 2013.

An explanation for this might be that as some of the 38 and 39 year olds have turned 40, they've elected to only play 40 & over and there have not been enough new under 40 year-olds joining to fill the void.  And those that turn 55 seem to continue to play 40 & over.  Also, the 40 & over division was new for 2013 so perhaps it took some a year or two to get on board with it.

Let us see if the trend continues in 55 & over.

Sure enough, the trend continues.  This group is up over 4% since 2013.  As the 53 and 54 year olds have turned 55, they keep playing at a higher rate than they get too old or injured and stop it would appear.

Given all this, it would be interesting to see what the average age of these players is.  Alas, I don't have that data, but I would hypothesize that the average age is increasing which would indicate that existing players keep playing as long as they can, but the new younger players are not joining and playing USTA League enough to replace the older players that do end up not playing at some point.

What do you think?

2013 - 2015 USTA League participation by year and gender - Interesting tennis league stats

I see comments periodically saying that participation in USTA League has been declining the past few years.  Naturally, that gave me reason to take a look.

Using the data I have from calculating Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports, I took a look at how many players have played in the 18 & over, 40 & over, 55 & over, and 65 & over Adult divisions regular season.  These number do not include players that only played Mixed, or only played in Tri-Level, Combo, Singles, or other non-advancing leagues/divisions.


First, kudos to the USTA for organizing leagues that get nearly 300K players participating.  I'm sure this is a small fraction of all the tennis players playing in the United States, but is still a good sized number.

But to answer the question about participation, there does appear to be a small but consistent decline the past few years.  It may be hard to see in the chart, but total participation was down about 4,000 from 2013 to 2014, and was down another 2,000 this year.  So just over 2% from 2013 to 2015.

And the decline is pretty consistent across genders, although men's participation almost stayed flat from 2014 to 2015.

With all data and analysis, we need to understand what we are looking at and this is looking just at participation in the advancing leagues as noted above.  It could very well be that while these have declined, the other non-advancing leagues haven't and could even have grown.

As to why there might be a decline, I can only speculate.  There could just be fewer people playing tennis, or perhaps league fees have gone up and driven a few away, or some have decided they don't want/need to play in the advancing leagues and taken their play to other leagues/divisions.

What do you think?

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Christmas Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports are back! The perfect last minute gift for the tennis nut

Once again, I am generating special PDF versions of Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports, perfect as a stocking stuffer or last minute gift for that hard to buy for USTA playing tennis friend or family member.  The PDF of the report will be provided at no extra charge and you'll still get my explanation of the report in the e-mail I send with the PDF.

Here is what the PDF will look like.


Contact me to request a report or with any questions.  And Happy Holidays!

Friday, December 18, 2015

Tracking the activity of your dog doing agility - FitBark dog activity monitor

I recently wrote about tracking my own activity when playing tennis using a Misfit Flash activity monitor.  But what precipitated it all was getting an activity monitor for our dog and that piquing my interest in tracking my own activity.

My wife and I have a very energetic Cocker Spaniel, and realized pretty early on that we needed to find something for him to do.  My wife ended up getting into agility with him, first for fun, but now competing in agility trials, and they are both doing great.

A natural question we had was how active our dog really was.  We came across an ad for pet activity monitors, and after doing some research purchased a FitBark Dog Activity Monitor.

The small bone shaped device attaches to your dog's collar and monitors his activity just like an activity monitor you would wear does.  What makes it really useful and interesting is the app you install on your smart phone that "fetches" the data from the device and displays it for you.

The data that is retrieved is turned into points, and a daily point goal is set based on the dog's breed, age, gender, weight, etc. (but it can be overridden).  In the image above, the details for the day are displayed and then a summary of the daily totals for the week.  The green line is the daily goal, which you can see the our dog is exceeding his daily goal on a regular basis and on this day was over 50% over it.

But it isn't just the total for the day, but the hourly view you get in the chart and the break-down of how much time was spent resting, active, and playing.  The hourly view is great as we can see exactly how much activity he gets when we go for a walk or go to the park to chase the ball, or in our case how many points he gets from a run through an agility course.

The app has other features to track a "pack" of dogs, compare your dog's activity with other dogs of the same or similar breeds/sizes, share the information with friends, family, or your vet, and even link it with your own activity monitor should you go running or biking with your dog.  The app has even been updated several times in the couple of months we've been using it so they continue to enhance and improve it.

And the FitBark even collects data when you aren't home, so you can see exactly how active your dog is when no one is home.  There is even a WiFi station you can get that fetches the data while you aren't there and uploads it to the cloud so you can run the app and see the up to the minute activity and points.

We have been very pleased with the FitBark and would highly recommend it to any agility dog owner, or any dog or pet owner, as it provides new insights into the activity and health of your pet.

Do you have a FitBark or other activity monitor for your dog?  I'd love to hear your comments.

Tracking your activity when playing tennis - My experience with a Misfit Flash

This post is going to deviate a bit from discussing NTRP ratings and USTA League stats, but is still about data related to tennis.

Personal activity monitors, e.g. Fitbit, Garmin Vivo, Nike Fuel, etc. have become very popular recently.  I succumbed and got one, a Misfit Flash, in part because I'd gotten a FitBark activity monitor for my dog (see more here) and also being a data junkie, getting data about my activity is a bit intriguing.

I have not used many other activity monitors, and this is not intended to be a full review of the Flash, but it is a fairly inexpensive device does provide the basics of monitoring your steps, calories, and miles.  It also accumulates points for you and measures your progress towards a daily goal.

The points it calculates are based on a variety of factors, one being the type of activity you are doing.  You are able to track a specific activity and identify what the activity type is.  You also tell it where you are wearing the device (wrist, shoe, waist), and when you do this, it calculates your points accordingly.  For example, the same activity it monitors for a period will result in more points if you tell it you were running vs walking.

But what I really care about is what it says about playing tennis, and thankfully, there is a specific activity type for tennis.  So I mark the start and end of when I play, tell it the activity was tennis, and voila, it tells me how many points I accumulated for the activity.

The image above shows the total for a day in which I played twice for a total of about 3 hours.  There was about 1.5 hours of singles and 1.5 hours of doubles.

The image to the left shows the specific activity when I played singles on this day and you see I garnered a bunch of the points from it.

I do notice that I get more points from singles than doubles.  I probably get about 900 points per hour from doubles and 1,200-1,400 per hour from singles which all makes sense.

All in all, I'm very pleased with my Misfit Flash.  I'm sure other trackers do more and have more features, and the Flash has some quirks, for example there is no display, just a dial with LED's and a single button.  But you can monitor your daily progress, start/stop an activity, and see the time with something as simple as this.

If you use an activity tracker when playing tennis, leave a comment and let me know what your experience has been.


Sunday, December 6, 2015

2015 USTA League bump percentages by level, 5.0 men and women - Interesting tennis league stats

This post continues the thread of analyzing the 2015 USTA League year-end bumps up and down.  I've already looked at bump up/down percentages by section and overall, as well as for the 3.0 men and women3.5 women and men4.0 men and women, and 4.5 women and men.  Now I take a look at the 5.0 men and women.

Here are the men.

It is no surprise there aren't many bump ups, but the number of bump downs is a bit surprising, particularly in Hawaii and New England where about half and one third were bumped down!  And a bunch of other sections had more than 15% of 5.0s bumped down.

Here are the women.

The women are similar, but Caribbean and Northern have nearly every 5.0 bumped down, but there are also very small numbers here with hardly any 5.0s in the first place.

So it seems there is definitely going to be a bunch of strong 4.5s in 2016 with all of the 5.0 bump downs.

Saturday, December 5, 2015

2015 USTA League bump percentages by level, 4.5 men and women - Interesting tennis league stats

This post continues the thread of analyzing the 2015 USTA League year-end bumps up and down.  I've already looked at bump up/down percentages by section and overall, as well as for the 3.0 men and women3.5 women and men, and 4.0 men and women, now I move on to the 4.5 women and men.


Like the 4.0 women, there are a remarkably high number of bump downs to 4.0.



The men even have more bumps down than up!  The 4.0 level is going to grow a bit.

2015 USTA League bump percentages by level, 4.0 men and women - Interesting tennis league stats

This post continues the thread of analyzing the 2015 USTA League year-end bumps up and down.  I've already looked at bump up/down percentages by section and overall, as well as for the 3.0 men and women and 3.5 women and men, now I move on to the 4.0 men and women.


Other than Caribbean again, the men look pretty normal with a few more bumps up than down.


The women is pretty interesting though with nearly every section having more bumps down than up!  Is this perhaps an adjustment in response to bumping too many up last year?  If so, was it a natural adjustment because those players couldn't do well at 4.0 or was there an adjustment the USTA did?

2015 USTA League bump percentages by level, 3.5 men and women - Interesting tennis league stats

This post continues the thread of analyzing the 2015 USTA League year-end bumps up and down.  I've already looked at bump up/down percentages by section and overall, as well as for the 3.0 men and women, now I move on to the 3.5 women and men.

As you might expect, things begin to become more balanced at 3.5, but there are still more bumps up than down.

The women have 3-5% of 3.5s being bumped down to 3.0 and 5-9% being bumped up to 4.0.


The men are similar to the women although the Caribbean really has a high percentage and makes the chart look different.

Friday, December 4, 2015

2015 USTA League bump percentages by level, 3.0 men and women - Interesting tennis league stats

This post continues the thread of analyzing the 2015 USTA League year-end bumps up and down.  I've already looked at bump up/down percentages by section and overall, now it is time to drill in and look at the same data by section and level.  To start, I'll look at the 3.0 men and women.

As you might expect, at the 3.0 level there are a lot more bumps up than down as not many players are bumped down to 2.5 from 3.0.


 Several sections had around/over 20% of their male 3.0s bumped up to 3.5, and every section had over 10% of them.  Caribbean had over 35% of their 3.0 men bumped up.


For the women, there are actually a few more players bumped down, and fewer bumped up with the top sections around 10-15%.

Are captains in USTA League typically stronger or weaker players? - Interesting tennis league stats

There was recently a question on Talk Tennis asking if captains are generally good players.  Captains are an important part of USTA League and often don't get credit for what they do, and not only handle captaining but play as well.  It seemed interesting to research if they tended to be stronger/weaker for their level, so I did.

I looked at my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for 2015 and for the 18 & over and 40 & over divisions, for each gender, what the average dynamic rating was for captains vs the average for players rostered by level and gender.  Here is what I found.

For each case, I'm showing the average rating for captains and then the average for players rostered on teams at each level.

Men 18+

3.0 - 2.78 vs 2.74
3.5 - 3.23 vs 3.24
4.0 - 3.68 vs 3.71
4.5 - 4.11 vs 4.15
5.0 - 4.52 vs 4.57

If anything, at levels other than 3.0, the captains are rated slightly lower.

Women 18+

3.0 - 2.76 vs 2.72
3.5 - 3.18 vs 3.18
4.0 - 3.59 vs 3.60
4.5 - 4.01 vs 4.01
5.0 - 4.47 vs 4.48

The gaps here are a lot smaller, other than 3.0 it is in statistical noise.

Women 40+

3.0 - 2.76 vs 2.73
3.5 - 3.19 vs 3.19
4.0 - 3.60 vs 3.61
4.5 - 4.05 vs 4.05

Very similar to the 18+, virtually the same other than 3.0.

Men 40+

3.0 - 2.78 vs 2.78
3.5 - 3.24 vs 3.26
4.0 - 3.68 vs 3.72
4.5 - 4.15 vs 4.21

Similar to 18+, higher levels the captains are a little below the average.

So if you want to look for any generalization, it would be that higher level men's teams are more likely to have captains rated lower than average.  But for women's teams and lower rated men's teams, it is a lot closer and at 3.0, captains may be stronger.

Thoughts?  What is your experience?

Thursday, December 3, 2015

2015 USTA League bump percentages by section - Interesting tennis league stats

The 2015 USTA year-end ratings are out and so analysis can begin.

I'll start with looking at bump up/down percentages by section, first overall, then for male and female.


This looks a lot different than last year (2014) when nearly every section had over 12% of players bumped up and a few were over 20%.  This year, Caribbean is the only section with a bump percentage greater than 10%.

Last year also had most every section with significantly more than twice the bumps up than down, this year the ratio is below 2.0 for most sections.

So this looks a lot more like a normal year and there is not any obvious big adjustments made by the USTA.

We can look at the same chart, but just for the men.

We see Caribbean is even more of the outlier here, nearly every section for the men is below 8% bumps up and ratios to bump down around 1.5.

For the women:


The Pacific Northwest has the highest bump up percentage here, but it is barely over 10%.



Wednesday, December 2, 2015

2015 USTA League year-end bump percentages - Interesting tennis league stats

USTA 2015 year-end NTRP rating levels are out, and now begins assessing what happened this year.

At the highest level, we can look at what percent of players stayed the same, were bumped up, or were bumped down.  Last year, more than twice as many players were bumped up than down (14.3% to 6.4%), but this year, the number of players bumped either way are down and the ratio is a bit smaller with 8.0% being bumped up and 4.7% being bumped down.

Breaking it down by section and state coming soon.

Monday, November 30, 2015

What? No way! Why? Surprised by your 2015 year-end USTA rating?

The 2015 USTA League year-end ratings are out, and many players received the year-end rating they were expecting.  In fact, it appears there were no major adjustments or surprises from what I've seen/heard so far.  But some individuals may still be surprised with where they ended up.

There are always some surprises for players.  Some may have been expecting to stay where they were but got bumped up or down, while others are expecting or hoping for a bump but didn't get it.

For those that want to understand why, they can always get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report that will help explain how it all works.  Contact me for more information.

Some initial thoughts on 2015 USTA year-end NTRP ratings

The 2015 USTA year-end NTRP ratings are out and while much more analysis is coming, here are a few quick observations.

I have not seen evidence or heard others indicating significant adjustments like was done last year.  For the most part, what I'm seeing for my club and others I know, as well as what folks are reporting to me, is in line with my expectations and what my ratings predicted.  Where my ratings have missed, it has almost always been just a few hundredths off.

One where I as farther off was a local player double bumped from 4.0 to 5.0 that played mostly 4.0 but did win a couple 4.5 matches.  They certainly should have been bumped to 4.5, but the double bump almost sounds administrative.

Then I missed on a few players on a team in Southern, but it was somewhat explained by their playoff results carrying extra weight, and the fact that the team from their section at their division/level did make the semis at Nationals and that can trickle back to local areas pulling ratings up.

More to come.

2015 USTA League year-end ratings are out!

USTA League 2015 year-end ratings have been or are being published on TennisLink.  I'll be taking a closer look to compare how my estimated dynamic ratings predicted year-end ratings, and also looking at stats and trends across all the sections, so stay tuned for more.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Happy Thanksgiving - Black Friday sale on Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports

Happy Thanksgiving to all, and especially to those tennis players anxiously awaiting their 2015 year-end NTRP rating.  This is always an important time of year for USTA League players, not just because it is Thanksgiving being spent with friends and family, but because the USTA traditionally releases year-end rating levels the week after Thanksgiving, so while eating turkey and watching football, one dreams about accomplishing a goal of being bumped up or wonders if they'll stay the same level and can still play with their team from last year.

One way to get a very good idea of where your rating will end up is to get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report.  These reports show what I estimate your dynamic NTRP rating to be, but also show a bevy of statistics for your 2015 season including a chart showing match by match how each match rated and affected your dynamic rating, plus you get a partner report showing how your matches rated when playing with your different doubles partners.


And in the spirit of giving thanks, I'd like to thank all my report customers by offering a Black Friday sale on reports from now through when the USTA publishes ratings, so likely through Monday 11/30.  New individual reports will be 25% off and new team reports 33% off.  Or if you want to get a report for you and a friend or spouse, you can buy an individual report at regular price and get the second one free!

Contact me if interested (ratings@teravation.net), and have a great Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

2015 USTA League Mixed Nationals are complete - Southern Cal takes the points chase again

The 2015 USTA League Nationals for the Mixed divisions completed last weekend with the last levels wrapping up.

I have again kept track of the champions and Southern Cal once again wins the points chase.  Coupled with their doing so at Adult Nationals as well, it is safe to say that SoCal is the king of USTA League tennis this year.

SoCal won 4 titles and garnered 19.5 points while Southern and Mid-Atlantic with 2 titles each and 17 and 14 points respectively tried to make it close, but didn't have enough.  The other title winners were Eastern, Florida, and Midwest.

We now await year-end ratings which should be published in less than a week now!

Sunday, November 15, 2015

2015 USTA League Mixed Nationals update - 18+ 2.5, 7.0, 9.0, and 40+ 6.0 and 8.0

The Nationals for Adult play (18+, 40+, 55+) finished up a couple weeks ago, but this weekend finds the Mixed Nationals in full flight.  And as of this morning the semis are about to start.

In Tucson, the 18 & over division is playing with the 2.5, 70, and 9.0 levels.

The 2.5 level had only 4 teams and one flight, and it appears Mid-Atlantic won the flight and thus the Nationals title over Southern, Caribbean, and Florida.  Congrats Mid-Atlantic!

The 7.0 level finds Midwest playing Southern and Caribbean playing Southern Cal, two of these close with Midwest beating out Middle States (both 3-1) and Southern beating out Eastern on head-to-head despite losing more courts.

At the 9.0 level, the semis find Southern Cal playing Mid-Atlantic and Missouri Valley playing Florida.  There were just 3 flights due to 15 teams being there and Florida advanced as a wildcard after finishing second to Mid-Atlantic, also losing the tie-breaker on head-to-head despite losing fewer courts.

The 40 & over division is playing in Surprise with the 6.0 and 8.0 levels.

The 6.0 finds all undefeateds from their flights Southern Cal facing Intermountain and Southern playing Pacific Northwest.

The 8.0 level also has unblemished teams in the semis with Texas playing Florida and Southern Cal facing Mid-Atlantic.

Good luck teams!

Thursday, November 12, 2015

USTA League year-end NTRP ratings will be out soon, what if I want to appeal?

The USTA League year came to a close on 11/1 when the last Adult Nationals completed play.  As players wait for year-end ratings to come out in a few weeks, a common question I get when generating reports for players is if they'll be able to appeal their 2015 year-end rating.

Interestingly, I get questions about appealing up and down.  Not everyone wants to play at the lowest level possible, some like the challenge of playing stronger players or want the validation of having the higher rating by their name.

In any case, I received a newsletter from the USTA a couple years ago outlining changes to the appeal rules.  To my knowledge, these are the rules still in effect, and give that link a read, but the short summary is that you aren't eligible to appeal down if you played in playoffs nor are you eligible to appeal down if you played more than 10 matches.  If you played less than 10 matches, there is a varying threshold used for the auto-appeals that gets smaller the more matches you play.

The idea seems to be that if you've played in playoffs, and thus been part of the benchmark calculations, the USTA feels your rating is accurate and other's ratings were based off yours, so you shouldn't be able to appeal.  And if you play enough matches, they also believe the NTRP algorithm has enough data to give you an accurate rating.

Now, if you are a player 60 or older, there are some special rules that allow you to appeal down in some cases, or even preclude you from being bumped up.  I've written how these rules could be viewed as discriminatory, but they seem to still be in place.

If anyone knows these rules are no longer accurate or that they have changed, please let me know.

Monday, November 2, 2015

2015 USTA League Adult Nationals are complete - Southern Cal takes the points chase, 4-way tie for most titles

The 2015 USTA League Nationals for the Adult divisions completed yesterday with the last 40 & over and 55 & over levels wrapping up.  The Mixed divisions are yet to have their Nationals in the next few weeks, but we can look back at the Adult divisions now.

I have kept track of the top-4 teams and champions for each level and division and doled out points for each placement, 4 points for first, 3 for second, and so on.

Overall, Southern, Florida, Caribbean, and Texas led the way each winning 4 titles.  However, Southern Cal, while winning just 3 titles, garnered the most points based on consistently making it to the semis and beat out Southern 35 points to 34.  Interestingly, third in the points race was Pacific Northwest with 30 points who didn't win any titles at all but still was consistently making the semis enough to beat out 3 of the 4 title section's point totals.

The USTA will probably be happy to know that every section did have at least one semi-finalist in the Adult divisions, although 6 sections had fewer than 10 points with Hawaii in last with just 3.  Interestingly, you'd think Caribbean would be similar to Hawaii, but the latter finished fifth overall with a whopping 22 points!

Looking at the divisions rather than overall, in the 18 & over Southern Cal had one title but a big lead with 21 points, well ahead of Southern with 16.  Florida, Northern Cal, and Pacific Northwest were tied with 12.

In the 40 & over division, it was a far more tight and balanced race with Texas leading the way with 11 points just ahead of Caribbean and Southern with 10 each.

The 55 & over division saw warm weather states in the lead with Florida, Southern Cal, Southern, and Southwest in the top-5 with Pacific Northwest spoiling the warm weather party tying for second.

Compared to last year where Texas, Southern Cal, Southern, Pacific Northwest, and Northern Cal led the way, the top teams are not all that different.  The USTA did some significant adjustments to year-end ratings last year to "punish" some of the sections that did well so if their goal was to get other sections winning more, it didn't quite work, especially for Southern Cal which went from second to first.  And Caribbean had a lot of bumps up but still came back strong this year.  It will be interesting to see if Southern Cal get adjusted significantly this year or if the USTA leaves things as is.  One can certainly see how there may be more bumps than normal for the 18 & over division there.

The end of Nationals also brings us the cut-off date for matches to count for year-end ratings.  The USTA will no be doing their calculations to arrive at year-end ratings which are typically published the Monday after Thanksgiving.  If you are impatient or want to know more than just a level, contact me and I can generate an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report for you showing you details on where your rating likely is and why.  And captains are now scouting for teams for next year, my reports can help with that too.

Congratulations to all those that went to Nationals this year, looking forward to next year already.

Saturday, October 31, 2015

2015 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Women Nationals semi-finals prediction

The semi-finals are set for the 40 & over 4.0 Women at the 2015 USTA League Nationals.

Northern California won a loaded flight 1 easily at 4-0 and 15-5 on courts, with 3 teams tied at 2-2 behind them.

Mid-Atlantic won flight 2 at 3-0 and 10-5 over Missouri Valley at 2-1 and 9-6.

Southern California won flight 3 at 3-0 and 11-5 over a 2-1 and 10-4 Florida.

And New England won flight 4 at 3-0 and 11-4 over a 2-1 and 9-6 Pacific Northwest.

With the matches from the flight taken into account, the top-8 average ratings say Northern Cal is an ever so flight favorite over Southern Cal, and New England is a similarly slight favorite over over Mid-Atlantic.  The final has Northern Cal a slightly larger favorite to beat New England.

We'll find out how it ends up tomorrow!

2015 USTA League 40+ 4.0 Men Nationals semi-finals prediction

The semi-finals are set for the 40 & over 4.0 Men at the 2015 USTA League Nationals.

Texas won flight 5 as the flight favorite there going 4-0 and 17-3 on courts, having it wrapped up before their last match.

Middle States won flight 6 going 3-0 and 12-3 on courts, almost having it wrapped up before their last match.

New England won a very tight flight 7 at 2-1 and 8-7 on courts beating out Southern Cal who was also 2-1 and 7-8 on courts.

Last, Intermountain, the favorite in their flight won flight 8 comfortably at 3-0 and 10-5.

With the results of the flight play included, Texas is favored over New England and Intermountain over Middle States, with Texas the pick to win it all.  We'll see tomorrow!

Friday, October 30, 2015

Day one of 40+ 4.0 USTA League Nationals is in the books

The first day of the last weekend of USTA League Adult Nationals is complete.

The 40+ 4.0 Women flights sees Northern Cal and Midwest leading flight 1 at 2-0.  They play tomorrow and the winner will likely win the flight.

Mid-Atlantic leads flight 2 at 2-0 and they play 0-2 Hawaii tomorrow so any win gets them to the semis, but a loss and one of the 1-1 teams will advance.

Flight 3 is led by Northern and Southern Cal, both at 1-0, and flight 4 is led with PNW and New England at 1-0.  There is a lot of tennis to go in each of these flights.

The 40+ 4.0 Men flights has Texas leading flight 5 at 2-0, but with 2 matches to play tomorrow, several teams still in it.

Middle States leads flight 6 at 2-0 and almost has it wrapped up, needing just 2 courts to advance to the semis.

Flight 7 is led by Southern Cal, but they likely need a win to advance.

And flight 8 is led by Intermountain, they get to play 0-2 Southwest in their match tomorrow to get to the semis.

Good luck to all!

The 2015 USTA League year is almost over, NTRP ratings will soon be calculated

The last weekend of USTA League Adult Nationals completes this weekend, and with that, the year ends for Adult NTRP rating purposes.  So what exactly does that mean?  It is all a bit confusing the way the USTA does it, but here is a hopefully concise explanation.

Year-end ratings are generally released the week after Thanksgiving, so they aren't really through calendar year-end, but they are still given a rating date of 12/31.  So what is the "year" they are calculated for?

Generally the year runs from November thru October, but more precisely the league year typically ends when the last Adult League Nationals finishes.  This makes sense, you'd want the matches from Nationals to count!  But this also means that matches played in other leagues that count on or before that cut-off date will also count.  This is true even if it is an early start league for the following year.

While this may seem strange that a "2016" league will count for your 2015 year-end rating, this also makes sense because the matches are played during the 2015 league year, and since some early start leagues start back in the late Spring and early Summer, it would be stranger to be including matches from May 2015 in your 2016 year-end rating.

So why, if the cut-off date is this Sunday November 1st, do ratings not come out for another 4+ weeks?  My guess is that the USTA uses this time to do all the benchmark and other year-end calculations and review and determination of if any adjustments will be made.

Note that Mixed Nationals are still to be played November 13-15 and 20-22, so while I have not confirmed this, I think the cut-off for Mixed-exclusive ratings would be November 22nd.  That means the USTA only has a week or so to turn around "M" ratings, but with the vast majority of players playing Adult league, there aren't that many M-rated players so they are able to do it.

Of course, this leads to players being in this limbo state where the matches are all done and there is nothing they can do to influence their rating, but they have to wait to find out what it is.  With many leagues start right away in January, players and captains would like to know sooner than December what their NTRP level will be so they can form teams and not be rushed to do it all during the holidays.

For those that are impatient and wanting to plan, or just curious what their rating is or how their rating has changed match by match, I can generate Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports.  These reports show what I estimate your dynamic NTRP rating to be, but also show a bevy of statistics for your 2015 season including a chart showing match by match how each match rated and affected your dynamic rating, plus you get a partner report showing how your matches rated when playing with your different doubles partners.


And while the USTA does not calculate separate singles and doubles ratings, my reports will show you how you've done in both, singles matches in green and doubles matches in blue, so you can see which you do better in.

And if you were fortunate to go to and play at Nationals this year, my reports always include all relevant matches played including playoff matches, so you can see how those rate and the impact they have on your dynamic rating.  Each phase of playoffs is noted in the chart as well, D for Districts, S for Sectionals, and N for Nationals as you can see above.

If you are interested in getting a report, contact me and I can generate a report for you or answer any questions you might have.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.0 Men Preview

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is October 30-November 1 and has the 40 & over division 4.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 4.0 Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The highest top-8 average is 4.18 and the lowest is 3.86.

Flight 5 may be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, Florida, Midwest, and Texas comprising the #2, #3, #10, #11, and #15 teams.

Flight 8 with Intermountain, Northern California, Southern, and Southwest is pretty tough with the #1, #5, #7, and #14 teams.

Flight 6 is not far behind with Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, and Pacific Northwest comprising the #4, #8, #9, and #13 teams.

Flight 7 has Missouri Valley, New England, Northern, and Southern California comprising the #6, #12, #16, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.0 Women Preview

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is October 30-November 1 and has the 40 & over division 4.0 level playing.  Here is a preview of the 4.0 Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

The top team has a top-8 average of 4.11 while the lowest rated team is at 3.84.

Flight 4 appears to be the toughest with Caribbean, Eastern, New England, and Pacific Northwest comprising the #1, #2, #5, and #16 teams.

Flight 1 is not far behind with Intermountain, Midwest, Northern California, Southern, and Texas comprising the #3, #6, #8, #9, and #15 teams.  With some traditionally strong sections, this could be very tough to advance out of.

Flight 2 with Hawaii, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, and Missouri Valley comprises the #4, #11, #12, and #13 teams.

Last, flight 3 has Florida, Northern, Southern California, and Southwest comprising the #7, #10, #14, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Congratulations to this weekend's 2015 USTA League Nationals Champions - 40+ 3.5 and 4.5+ and 55+ 6.0 and 8.0

The 2015 USTA League Nationals continued this weekend with play in the 40 & over and 55 & over divisions.

The 40 & over 3.5 Women was won by Texas with a 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest.

The 40 & over 3.5 Men had a very close final with 4 matches going to match tie-breaks and Caribbean winning 3 of them to get the 3-2 win over Pacific Northwest.

Florida won the 40 & over 4.5+ Women with a 3-2 win over Hawaii, all 3 wins in straight sets.

The Men's 40 & over 4.5+ was won by Mid-Atlantic with a 5-0 drubbing of Intermountain, all in straight sets!

The 55 & over 6.0 Women was won by Florida over Pacific Northwest 3-0.

The 55 & over 6.0 Men was won by Northern over Northern Cal 2-1, a win for each team going to a match tie-break.

Southern Cal on the 55 & over 8.0 Women beating Pacific Northwest 2-1.

And Southern beat Florida in the 55 & over 8.0 Men 2-1.

A full summary of the results from this weekend and the past 2 weeks can be seen here.


Wednesday, October 21, 2015

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.5+ Men Preview

The fourth weekend of Nationals is October 23-25 and has two more 40 & over divisions being contested.  I've already previewed the 3.5 Men and Women, and 4.5+ Women, here is a preview of the 4.5+ Men.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is another large range from top to bottom, 4.73 for a couple of teams at the top down to 4.47 for the lower rated top-8.  Yes, there are a couple of 5.0s on these rosters that inflates the average, but that is a pretty big range and high top-8 average for the top teams.

Flight 8 has Florida, Intermountain, Missouri Valley, and Southern and appears to be the toughest with the #2, #3, #6, and #9 teams.  This flight winner will be battle tested or wiped out when they get to the semis.

Flight 6 has Eastern, Middle States, Southern Cal, and Texas and comprises the #4, #7, #8, and #14 teams.

Flight 7 with Mid-Atlantic, Northern, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest has the top team, but falls off after that with the #10, #12, and #16 teams.

Flight 5 with Hawaii, Midwest, New England and Northern Cal has the #5, #11, #13, and #17 teams.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.

2015 USTA League Nationals 40 & over 4.5+ Women Preview

The fourth weekend of Nationals is October 23-25 and has two more 40 & over divisions being contested.  I've already previewed the 3.5 Men and Women, here is a preview of the 4.5+ Women.

The ratings used in preparing these previews are my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings.  And for the purposes of comparing teams, I'm calculating the average of the top-8 players on each National's roster.

There is a fairly big range from the top team's 4.68 down to 4.36.  But being a plus league, how many and where your 5.0 player's rate makes a big difference here.

The flights are actually quite balanced, so I'll just go through them in order.

Flight 1 has Caribbean, Eastern, Hawaii, New England, and Texas and comprises the #2, #5, #6, #11, and #14 teams.

Flight 2 has Northern, Pacific Northwest, Southern, and Southwest which includes the #3, #7, #12, and #17 teams.

Flight 3 has Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Missouri Valley, and Southern Cal comprising the #4, #9, #10, and #16 teams.

Flight 4 has Florida, Intermountain, Midwest, and Northern Cal which includes the #1, #8, #13, and #15 teams.

So the top-4 seeds are all in different flights and could in theory all reach the semis.  We'll see if that happens.

If you'd like more details on any of the flights, I can generate a flight report for any of the them that will show the average rating for the roster and the top-8 average.

Or if you want to see details about a team including each player's rating and a summary of their record and courts played on the team through each phase of the season, a team report is a great resource for your team or any opponent as a tool to scout them.

Contact me if you are interested in any reports.

Note: As always, average ratings for a team does not win a team match.  Who plays in the match, the line-ups and how they match-up, and how a given player plays on that day are what determine who wins.  So the highest rated teams using top-8 average may or may not win, but it is interesting to look at.