Wednesday, September 30, 2009

2009 Week 5 College Preview Highlights

With week 5 already started a day earlier than normal, it is time for a preview of some of the interesting games.  Full picks are here.

Last week the computer had a good week overall and in the games I highlighted didn't get Purdue in the upset but had the spread right, got the Houston win correct, had Oregon and the points, and Virginia Tech and the points too.

Hawaii and Louisiana Tech are playing tonight with Hawaii the computer pick but Louisiana Tech the pick by Vegas.  This isn't uncommon for Hawaii as their real road disadvantage is larger than the standard computer factor, and that is proving true with Hawaii losing by 21 as I write this.

So lets get to some games my computer has a shot at picking right!  While it wouldn't ordinarily be a notable game, I highlight South Florida visiting Syracuse as it will be a test to see if South Florida is for real.  With the computer picking them by 24, there is plenty of opportunity for them to fall short which will drop them in the rankings.

Washington visits Notre Dame and while the computer agrees that Notre Dame should win, the margin is only 6 while the line is around 13.5.  Was the win over USC an aberation and they are more like the team that lost to Stanford?  The computer doesn't think so.

I'm a little baffled as to why Tennessee is favored by 2.5 over Auburn as the computer has Auburn winning by 5.1.  Is there an injury I'm not aware of or do the odds makers really like a team that lost at home to UCLA and didn't beat Ohio very convincingly?

Miami hosts Oklahoma and is picked by 1 by the computer while the visitors are the 7 point Vegas pick.  Does Miami recover from the loss or does Oklahoma keep it going after the early loss?

LSU and Georgia appears to be a great game with Georgia the Vegas pick by 3 but the computer liking LSU by a mere 0.2.  Tough to pick, but will home field be enough for Georgia?

Last, in a game that could go far in deciding the Pac-10, USC visits Cal.  USC has already had their misstep in a Pac-10 road game but Cal will be looking to bounce back after last week.  The computer likes Cal by 1.1 even though the line is USC by 5.

Enjoy the games!

Earlier prediction errors corrected

Thanks to an observant reader, I discovered a bug in my script that generates the HTML for the predictions postings that resulted in the favorite and underdog being swapped on a few picks.  I've now corrected this in the earlier postings and on the ratings web-site to match the actual picks.

Apologies for the incorrect picks earlier.

2009 Week 4 NFL Predictions

Here are my computer's predictions for week 4 of the NFL season.  These are also posted here each week for easier reference.

After 2 weeks the computer is doing quite well going 30-17-1 against the spread and 32-16 straight up beating Vegas' 31-16 straight up.

The computer is picking 3 upsets this week, Jacksonville over Tennessee, Baltimore over New England, and Denver over Dallas.  Last week the 1 upset missed due in part to Seattle's injuries that the computer cannot take into account.  But all 3 upsets are based on the results this year while the Vegas line is based more on expectations that Tennessee is not an 0-3 team, New England is still New England, and Denver's 3-0 is a bit of a fraud.  This is what makes it interesting!

Favorite
Margin
Underdog
Favorite
Margin
Underdog
Denver
6.3
Dallas
Houston
3.9
Oakland
Jacksonville
2.5
Tennessee
Minnesota
10.2
Green Bay
San Francisco
21.2
St Louis
Pittsburgh
2.3
San Diego
New Orleans
9.3
NY Jets
Buffalo
3.2
Miami
NY Giants
10.9
Kansas City
Baltimore
0.8
New England
Washington
6.1
Tampa Bay
Cincinnati
6.2
Cleveland
Chicago
9.2
Detroit
Indianapolis
10.4
Seattle

Updated Noon PDT 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in picks.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

2009 Week 5 College Football Predictions

Here are my computer's predictions for week 5 of the college football season.  These also appear, and the current predictions always will, at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-predictions.  And see http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-prediction-performance for the historical performance of the picks.

These predictions are based on the week 4 ratings so there are 4 games for many teams and as we saw from last weeks performance, they have gotten more accurate.  A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come later this week.

Favorite Margin Underdog
Favorite Margin Underdog
South Florida 24.3 Syracuse
South Carolina 29.9 South Carolina St
Marshall 9.5 East Carolina
Wisconsin 3.7 Minnesota
Purdue 16.0 Northwestern
Ohio State 9.3 Indiana
Brigham Young 13.8 Utah St
Hawaii 3.4 Louisiana Tech
Iowa 28.4 Arkansas St
Idaho 2.4 Colorado St
Temple 11.4 Eastern Michigan
Notre Dame 6.0 Washington
Bowling Green 8.0 Ohio U.
West Virginia 12.3 Colorado
Toledo 10.7 Ball St
Auburn 5.1 Tennessee
Cincinnati 33.4 Miami OH
Northern Illinois 10.7 Western Michigan
Alabama 21.4 Kentucky
Penn State 11.3 Illinois
Miami FL 1.0 Oklahoma
LSU 0.2 Georgia
Boise St 38.9 UC-Davis
San Diego St 14.2 New Mexico St
Virginia Tech 20.7 Duke
Oregon 29.5 Washington St
Arizona St 7.5 Oregon St
California 1.1 Southern Cal
Navy 7.6 Air Force
Central Florida 5.7 Memphis
Houston 18.7 UTEP
Clemson 16.2 Maryland
Wake Forest 1.8 North Carolina St
Central Michigan 10.5 Buffalo
Texas A&M 2.2 Arkansas
Michigan St 2.5 Michigan
North Carolina 12.3 Virginia
Army 4.1 Tulane
Tulsa 17.3 Rice
Iowa St 4.8 Kansas St
Mississippi 10.8 Vanderbilt
Pittsburgh 8.0 Louisville
Georgia Tech 5.4 Mississippi St
Louisiana-Monroe 5.8 Florida Int'l
Florida St 5.3 Boston College
Stanford 6.1 UCLA
Texas Tech 35.1 New Mexico
TCU 27.8 SMU
Florida Atlantic 3.1 Wyoming

Updated 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in some picks.

2009 Week 3 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 3 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans off their 3rd impressive win moves to the top spot on the projected record list at 15-1.  Note that a 14-2 record is nearly the most likely record at 38.8% versus the 39% for 15-1.  This may seem like a pretty gaudy record and it is, but it is based on their performance this year which has been stellar.

Minnesota and the Jets are close behind projected to be at 14-2 and Denver and San Francisco are at 13-3.  These teams will all have to keep up their surprising play to keep those projections up there.

If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners New York Jets, Denver, Baltimore, and Indianapolis with wildcards New England and then in a dog fight, one of San Diego, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  The NFC would have New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the New York Giants as division winners with wildcards being Dallas and Philadelphia.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
15-1
39.0
38.8
17.1
Minnesota
14-2
28.1
17.1
26.4
NY Jets
14-2
32.9
14.1
32.0
Denver
13-3
27.4
18.4
24.8
San Francisco
13-3
28.9
15.9
28.0
Baltimore
12-4
24.3
24.1
16.8
NY Giants
12-4
30.8
22.7
23.0
Indianapolis
12-4
24.7
18.9
22.0
Dallas
10-6
28.4
20.1
24.0
New England
10-6
25.7
20.1
21.8
Philadelphia
10-6
23.6
19.7
20.1
San Diego
9-7
26.0
25.9
16.4
Cincinnati
9-7
30.8
23.5
22.3
Pittsburgh
9-7
25.8
20.0
22.0
Buffalo
9-7
25.7
19.0
22.8
Chicago
9-7
25.3
17.3
24.1
Arizona
8-8
24.4
22.4
18.3
Atlanta
8-8
25.8
19.1
22.9
Green Bay
8-8
23.8
17.0
23.1
Jacksonville
7-9
26.8
24.7
18.2
Seattle
7-9
23.7
18.2
21.7
Tennessee
6-10
25.6
17.8
24.2
Houston
5-11
28.1
23.9
19.9
Detroit
4-12
27.6
27.3
15.8
Oakland
4-12
30.9
26.3
19.2
Washington
4-12
30.5
26.1
19.0
Miami
4-12
26.4
17.8
25.2
Carolina
3-13
27.1
26.5
16.4
Cleveland
3-13
25.3
22.9
18.5
Tampa Bay
2-14
29.7
25.6
19.3
Kansas City
2-14
32.6
20.1
28.3
St Louis
2-14
30.4
18.2
29.5

2009 Week 3 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 3 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted in some changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

New Orleans extends the ratings lead cementing their hold on #1 with over a 6 point advantage over #2 Baltimore and #3 New York Jets.  Denver does make a big jump to #4 after a second convincing win in 2 weeks.  Minnesota also moves into the top-5.

These moves were at the expense of the Giants and Eagles who both dropped a few spots, but interestingly the Giants didn't lose ratings points, they just got passed by other teams that improved their ratings more.  Philly suffered a bit by having previous opponent Carolina not do so well against a 1-loss Dallas team last night.

The computer did very well picking games this week going 12-4 against the spread and 11-5 picking winners too.  That puts the computer at a very good 30-17-1 against the spread for the season.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
New Orleans
95.099
3-0
82.543
+0, +4.745
2
Baltimore
88.873
3-0
75.633
+0, +0.228
3
NY Jets
88.816
3-0
79.846
+0, +0.822
4
Denver
87.905
3-0
78.565
+8, +4.549
5
Minnesota
87.487
3-0
79.822
+2, +1.501
6
San Francisco
87.323
2-1
83.600
+0, +1.253
7
NY Giants
87.271
3-0
78.962
-3, +0.192
8
Indianapolis
86.074
3-0
80.117
+5, +3.023
9
Philadelphia
86.036
2-1
80.160
-4, -0.959
10
New England
85.079
2-1
83.503
+4, +2.430
11
Dallas
84.571
2-1
77.462
-2, -0.734
12
San Diego
83.198
2-1
79.776
-1, -0.403
13
Buffalo
82.763
1-2
83.433
+4, +0.326
14
Pittsburgh
82.536
1-2
82.400
-4, -2.441
15
Cincinnati
82.485
2-1
82.565
+8, +3.539
16
Chicago
82.016
2-1
81.488
+2, +1.175
17
Atlanta
81.929
2-1
77.876
-9, -3.707
18
Arizona
81.641
1-2
83.183
-3, -0.996
19
Green Bay
80.255
2-1
76.883
+2, +0.681
20
Tennessee
79.698
0-3
84.037
-4, -2.776
21
Jacksonville
79.152
1-2
82.825
+6, +1.577
22
Seattle
78.673
1-2
78.496
-3, -1.861
23
Houston
77.760
1-2
81.555
-3, -1.895
24
Oakland
76.898
1-2
80.498
+2, -1.047
25
Miami
76.558
0-3
84.734
-1, -1.456
26
Washington
76.194
1-2
78.417
-4, -2.904
27
Detroit
75.831
1-2
85.260
+4, +3.259
28
Carolina
74.992
0-3
85.179
-3, -2.971
29
Kansas City
73.389
0-3
84.935
+0, -1.106
30
Cleveland
73.311
0-3
89.088
+0, +0.187
31
Tampa Bay
73.123
0-3
83.868
-3, -2.396
32
St Louis
69.149
0-3
79.374
+0, -1.890

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Comparing the polls with the computer rankings

After 4 weeks of the season, you'd like to think both a computer ratings system and the poll voters have enough information to make a fair estimation of the rating/ranking of the top-25.  So, I thought I'd compare several polls and rating systems below to see if there was any consistency.  For the purposes of this comparison I'm using the AP and Coaches polls along with my computer and the Sagarin Predictor computer ratings.

Team AP Coaches Schmidt Sagarin
Florida 1 1 6 1
Texas 2 2 8 7
Alabama 3 3 1 8
LSU 4 4 21 12
Boise State 5 5 2 5
Virginia Tech 6 6 4 4
USC 7 7 19 3
Oklahoma 8 8 12 2
Ohio State 9 9 25 6
Cincinnati 10 11 11 13
TCU 11 10 9 16
Houston 12 15 16 49
Iowa 13 17 5 11
Oklahoma State 14 12 36 39
Penn State 15 13 30 17
Oregon 16 25 10 9
Miami 17 21 13 23
Kansas 18 16 31 42
Georgia 19 14 34 27
BYU 20 21 33 15
Mississippi 21 18 27 44
Michigan 22 20 48 45
Nebraska 23 24 7 10
California 24 19 28 18
Georgia Tech 25 26 18 22

In the top-10, the standout differences in the top-10 are that LSU, #4 in both polls, is #21 and #12 in the computers.  And my computer is not nearly as impressed by USC and Ohio State as the polls and Sagarin.  And interestingly Sagarin has 1-loss Oklahoma rated #2!

Outside the top-10 Sagarin also doesn't like Houston while the polls and my computer are pretty consistent there.  My computer is ready to anoint Iowa as the best in the Big-Televen but the others are not.  The computers are consistent in saying that Oklahoma State, Kansas, Georgia, and Michigan are overrated in the polls and that Oregon and Nebraska are a bit underrated.

An interesting comparison.  What do you think?

2009 Week 4 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 4 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.

In something of a surprise, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated goes from 2 last week to 6!  A number of teams on the fringe last week got by crucial games and has set them up well for the remainder of the season.

Boise State remains the team with the best shot at finishing with a perfect record, now at a staggering 92% after getting by Bowling Green.  With no team ranked above #61 the rest of the year it is hard to see them faltering.  But their schedule will also be the reason many lobby for them not getting credit for a no-loss season and getting into the BCS championship game.

Alabama also remains slated to finish undefeated at a very high 67.5% chance.  They do still have #15 Auburn, #21 LSU, #24 South Carolina, and #27 Ole Miss on their schedule.

The additions to the list include Iowa (62.5%), Houston (56.9%), TCU (56.4%), and South Florida (45%).  Iowa may be rated a tad high and still has to visit Ohio State, but their schedule isn't that difficult other than that.  Houston got by their big obstacle in Texas Tech.  TCU got by Clemson but still has BYU and Utah.  South Florida also may be rated a bit high but has big tests in Cincinnati and Miami both at home.

Two teams projected with 1 loss do have a shot at going undefeated, those being Florida (22%) and Cincinnati (12%).  Texas will be favored in all remaining games but is projected to have 2 losses given their schedule but does have a 10.7% chance of finishing unblemished.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St13-092.40.07.6
Alabama12-067.50.028.4
Iowa12-062.50.033.6
Houston12-056.90.036.5
TCU12-056.40.036.7
South Florida12-045.00.039.8
Cincinnati11-147.112.033.0
Virginia Tech11-144.60.041.5
Florida11-139.422.027.4
Penn State10-239.217.531.4
Wisconsin10-237.59.335.1
Texas10-233.229.919.0
Utah9-346.339.710.3
Brigham Young9-337.126.222.6
LSU9-336.720.528.9
Central Michigan9-336.627.121.8
Georgia Tech9-336.621.626.1
Marshall9-335.924.724.1
Miami FL9-334.817.530.4
Middle Tennessee St9-334.027.521.2
Ohio State9-334.017.729.6
Oregon9-332.730.418.4
Auburn9-332.631.516.6
Nebraska9-332.332.316.7
Missouri9-331.525.820.9
Bowling Green8-443.328.222.6
Northern Illinois8-440.032.317.8
South Carolina8-438.530.719.2
Fresno St8-437.821.027.7
Clemson8-437.226.822.6
Ohio U.8-436.617.131.0
Navy9-435.819.928.2
Tulsa8-435.624.723.5
Mississippi8-434.625.722.5
Texas Tech8-434.517.330.2
Rutgers8-434.413.834.1
Michigan8-433.320.227.7
North Carolina8-433.316.132.6
Pittsburgh8-432.621.725.4
Kansas8-432.524.922.1
Arizona8-432.225.421.8
Notre Dame8-431.420.226.2
Southern Miss8-431.015.330.7
Southern Cal8-429.721.524.0
California8-429.420.824.6
Oklahoma8-429.020.724.2
Stanford8-428.016.027.9
Colorado St7-536.832.316.9
West Virginia7-536.126.622.3
Connecticut7-535.829.318.8
Toledo7-535.423.524.6
Temple7-535.332.016.0
North Carolina St7-533.525.022.6
Florida St7-532.623.723.5
UCLA7-532.024.722.1
Georgia7-531.431.315.0
Idaho7-530.925.820.7
Arizona St7-529.420.624.6
Boston College7-529.418.127.1
Oklahoma St7-529.324.121.1
Troy7-529.019.525.4
Texas A&M7-528.521.722.8
Western Michigan6-639.825.122.4
Minnesota6-637.421.227.8
Iowa St6-634.422.725.3
East Carolina6-634.116.232.1
Tennessee6-632.821.326.2
Wake Forest6-632.118.828.4
Air Force6-632.029.616.6
Michigan St6-630.916.329.8
Hawaii7-629.524.420.9
Louisiana-Monroe6-629.223.821.3
Louisiana-Lafayette6-628.724.320.6
Indiana5-741.831.315.4
Central Florida5-739.235.015.3
Utah St5-738.221.126.5
SMU5-737.231.517.6
UNLV5-734.930.217.8
Oregon St5-734.722.226.4
Kentucky5-734.629.318.7
Buffalo5-732.217.728.9
Washington5-732.122.924.6
North Texas5-730.519.726.4
Purdue5-730.529.816.2
Mississippi St5-730.216.829.5
Arkansas St5-729.620.225.1
Baylor5-729.627.517.2
San Diego St4-851.019.326.3
Army4-843.130.715.5
Wyoming4-839.328.021.1
Vanderbilt4-838.818.431.2
Louisville4-836.821.926.6
Arkansas4-835.824.024.5
Kent St4-835.619.530.0
Kansas St4-835.317.931.9
Louisiana Tech4-834.518.730.5
San Jose St4-832.028.218.6
UTEP4-830.625.021.0
Florida Int'l4-829.916.828.7
Florida Atlantic4-827.522.920.8
Syracuse3-962.022.812.4
Northwestern3-954.334.53.5
Duke3-946.928.216.7
Memphis3-937.324.324.4
Virginia3-936.813.535.0
Akron3-934.430.715.7
Illinois3-934.125.322.4
Tulane3-934.024.323.7
Alabama-Birmingham3-932.924.922.6
Nevada3-928.627.616.8
Maryland2-1040.129.219.5
Eastern Michigan2-1037.713.836.7
Colorado2-1032.331.313.8
Western Kentucky2-1031.921.626.1
Washington St1-1187.511.90.0
New Mexico St2-1173.923.80.0
Rice1-1143.722.628.4
New Mexico0-1288.810.70.0
Miami OH0-1265.129.90.0
Ball St0-1262.933.40.0

2009 Week 4 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Results

Ratings through week 4 (games played thru 26-Sep).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Week 4 continued the theme of some upsets, an analysis of those upsets here, but with more data the computer is beginning to give a clearer picture of how each team should be rated and how they compare, so this is when it gets interesting.

Alabama remains #1 with Boise State close behind at #2.  Both teams had convincing wins, Boise State on the road, and that boosted their ratings over 5 points each.  Boise State was also buoyed by prior opponent Oregon winning convincingly over prior undefeated Cal.  There was a bunch of changed behind them though with new #3 thru #5 that each made big moves this week to get there.

South Florida moves to #3, and my gut says that is too high, but even though they've played 4 games, only one has been meaningful, and my computer aims to not overly penalize teams for have a few weak opponents by giving more weight to the meaningful games, so South Florida's rating is based for the most part on their win over Florida State.

Virginia Tech moves to #4 but for a different reason.  Their only loss was to #1 Alabama and they have a quality win over now #7 Nebraska and a walloping of former undefeated and now #13 Miami this week.

And Iowa moves to #5 after their big win over Penn State at Happy Valley, and they have another quality win over 1-loss Arizona.  While they have a narrow win over Northern Iowa, that is Northern Iowa's only loss and they've had huge wins over their other opponents so perhaps that narrow win wasn't so bad.

With 17 undefeated teams still, including traditional and recent powers Florida, Texas, and LSU, there is still a lot to be determined and many teams still have a shot at moving to the top of the ratings.  Check out the season projections which will be updated shortly to see who might stay undefeated.

As usually happens in week 4, the computer started doing better on predictions going 32-26-1 against the spread, and 9-4 on the best picks.  The best picks are now a very good 18-9-1 for the year.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
88.262
3-0
68.559
+3, +0.840
2
Boise St
87.975
3-0
66.646
+6, +2.244
3
Texas
87.250
3-0
66.148
+0, -2.009
4
Florida
86.897
3-0
58.939
-3, -5.918
5
California
86.568
3-0
67.579
+0, +0.019
6
Cincinnati
86.000
3-0
64.380
+5, +1.800
7
Miami FL
85.660
2-0
81.165
+19, +6.256
8
Houston
85.403
2-0
63.088
-1, -0.715
9
Oklahoma
85.209
2-1
63.494
-3, -1.183
10
Kansas
84.235
3-0
62.075
+11, +3.586
11
Pittsburgh
84.121
3-0
66.104
+2, +1.306
12
TCU
83.527
2-0
63.004
-2, -1.240
13
Southern Cal
83.501
2-1
72.848
-11, -7.381
14
Florida St
83.429
2-1
75.078
+31, +8.261
15
Nebraska
83.038
2-1
68.466
+0, +0.490
16
Penn State
82.736
3-0
59.795
-7, -2.467
17
Mississippi
82.687
2-0
59.284
+0, +0.320
18
Clemson
82.351
2-1
72.529
+4, +2.169
19
Auburn
82.239
3-0
67.808
+16, +4.622
20
Iowa
82.090
3-0
73.098
+7, +2.916
21
Virginia Tech
81.590
2-1
77.653
+2, +1.475
22
North Carolina
81.368
3-0
67.420
+2, +1.781
23
Missouri
81.195
3-0
63.781
-4, -0.957
24
Texas Tech
81.062
2-1
66.569
-10, -1.664
25
Ohio State
80.868
2-1
73.095
-13, -2.234
26
LSU
80.812
3-0
66.525
+4, +2.149
27
Oklahoma St
80.005
2-1
71.329
-7, -1.149
28
Oregon
79.620
2-1
78.752
+0, +0.457
29
Connecticut
79.467
2-1
76.272
+17, +4.509
30
Georgia Tech
78.900
2-1
77.071
-1, -0.123
31
Utah
78.393
2-1
69.553
-13, -3.863
32
Georgia
78.384
2-1
76.884
+5, +1.026
33
South Carolina
78.132
2-1
72.096
+3, +0.709
34
Arizona
77.524
2-1
69.481
-9, -1.984
35
Navy
76.811
1-2
77.661
-1, -1.144
36
Wisconsin
76.463
3-0
66.693
+14, +3.089
37
Brigham Young
76.372
2-1
74.226
-21, -6.024
38
West Virginia
75.913
2-1
69.403
+2, -0.470
39
UCLA
75.662
3-0
65.547
+9, +2.000
40
South Florida
75.151
3-0
51.512
-2, -1.764
41
Notre Dame
75.137
2-1
69.040
+1, -0.614
42
Michigan
74.993
3-0
62.277
+7, +1.521
43
Northern Illinois
74.824
2-1
68.787
+22, +4.886
44
Wake Forest
74.711
2-1
65.427
-1, -0.765
45
Oregon St
74.674
2-1
68.124
-6, -2.139
46
Baylor
74.566
1-1
77.089
-13, -3.390
47
Arizona St
74.495
2-0
50.618
+8, +2.265
48
Stanford
74.416
2-1
65.635
+5, +1.997
49
Fresno St
73.391
1-2
72.281
+5, +1.133
50
Tennessee
73.203
1-2
70.166
+12, +2.291
51
Washington
72.925
2-1
72.514
+36, +7.576
52
Purdue
72.887
1-2
72.139
-11, -3.283
53
Tulsa
72.568
2-1
67.752
-21, -5.699
54
Michigan St
72.422
1-2
65.008
+6, +0.920
55
Boston College
72.266
2-1
59.695
-24, -6.359
56
North Carolina St
72.237
2-1
53.944
+0, +0.062
57
Minnesota
72.146
2-1
73.453
+0, +0.159
58
Bowling Green
71.830
1-2
72.912
-14, -3.606
59
Mississippi St
71.519
2-1
63.588
+38, +8.742
60
Air Force
71.348
2-1
58.578
+4, +0.951
61
Central Michigan
71.232
2-1
64.620
+0, +0.146
62
Kentucky
70.568
2-0
57.421
-15, -3.327
63
Duke
70.564
1-2
75.040
-5, -1.406
64
Rutgers
70.229
2-1
58.529
+4, +1.324
65
Colorado St
70.212
3-0
63.160
+6, +2.203
66
Ohio U.
69.882
2-1
68.161
+24, +5.333
67
Texas A&M
69.710
2-0
56.649
-16, -3.452
68
Hawaii
69.624
2-1
63.657
+4, +2.203
69
Arkansas
69.515
1-1
63.640
-17, -3.432
70
Middle Tennessee St
69.420
2-1
71.695
+9, +3.071
71
Maryland
68.656
1-2
74.010
-12, -2.914
72
Southern Miss
68.629
3-0
54.601
-5, -0.289
73
UNLV
68.197
2-1
62.217
-7, -1.380
74
Louisville
67.917
1-1
45.659
+42,+13.510
75
Marshall
67.660
2-1
71.478
+28, +5.385
76
Buffalo
67.531
1-2
72.208
-7, -1.185
77
Iowa St
67.068
2-1
62.537
+16, +3.323
78
East Carolina
67.059
1-2
73.848
-4, +0.112
79
Illinois
66.976
1-1
63.935
+7, +1.483
80
Kansas St
66.899
1-2
70.066
-10, -1.175
81
Troy
66.880
1-2
74.724
-6, -0.053
82
Virginia
66.337
0-3
73.512
-9, -1.024
83
Northwestern
65.765
2-1
55.329
-3, -0.519
84
Central Florida
65.553
2-1
64.534
+10, +1.828
85
Temple
65.494
0-2
76.136
-4, -0.571
86
Syracuse
65.442
1-2
72.549
-1, -0.157
87
Florida Int'l
65.290
0-2
82.246
-5, -0.771
88
Vanderbilt
65.187
1-2
63.971
-25, -5.392
89
Indiana
65.033
3-0
57.598
+20, +4.369
90
Louisiana Tech
64.992
1-2
69.209
+2, +0.928
91
Toledo
64.974
1-2
72.770
-3, -0.125
92
North Texas
64.798
1-2
73.666
+14, +3.558
93
Colorado
64.553
1-2
64.291
+15, +3.685
94
Louisiana-Lafayette
64.463
2-1
63.405
-11, -1.583
95
Utah St
64.289
0-2
77.051
-11, -1.633
96
Western Michigan
64.241
1-2
64.317
+6, +1.937
97
Arkansas St
64.143
1-1
51.606
-2, +0.497
98
UTEP
63.950
1-2
65.865
+2, +1.293
99
Army
62.829
2-1
61.290
-3, -0.264
100
Nevada
62.705
0-2
75.675
-9, -1.548
101
Florida Atlantic
62.666
0-2
83.585
-2, -0.036
102
Alabama-Birmingham
62.445
1-2
61.570
-13, -2.370
103
Idaho
62.229
2-1
61.432
+12, +5.859
104
San Jose St
61.749
0-3
79.770
-28, -5.159
105
SMU
61.632
2-1
60.714
-4, -0.829
106
Memphis
61.078
1-2
65.023
+6, +1.946
107
Wyoming
60.687
1-2
71.342
-30, -6.199
108
Ball St
59.852
0-3
63.681
+2, -0.453
109
Louisiana-Monroe
59.693
1-2
66.346
-11, -3.052
110
San Diego St
59.540
1-2
65.172
-6, -2.379
111
Rice
59.200
0-3
77.504
-4, -1.752
112
Akron
57.448
1-2
61.676
-34, -9.227
113
Washington St
57.444
1-2
66.557
+5, +3.427
114
Eastern Michigan
56.454
0-3
68.862
+0, -0.646
115
Kent St
55.875
1-2
60.990
-10, -5.655
116
New Mexico
55.009
0-3
70.209
-5, -4.994
117
Tulane
54.039
0-2
71.470
-4, -3.319
118
Western Kentucky
50.938
0-3
70.228
+1, -2.267
119
Miami OH
49.926
0-3
76.261
-2, -4.434
120
New Mexico St
48.830
1-2
54.810
+0, -0.478

2009 Week 4 "Upset" Review

With the conclusion of week 4 of the college football season, the press would like us to believe there were 7 upsets in the top-25.  Let's take a look at each one to see if each was truly an upset.


Then #4 in the polls Mississippi lost at South Carolina and while my computer didn't predict the upset, it did have Mississippi only #17 so considered the #4 rating a tad high and did pick South Carolina plus the points.  Computer one up on the polls.


Then #5 in the polls Penn State lost at home to Iowa and again the computer didn't pick the upset but had then #16 Penn State by only 3.7 so it again had then #20 Iowa plus the points and got it right.  Computer two up.


Then #6 in the polls Cal lost on the road, bad, to Oregon.  The computer had Cal #5 so shame on it, but their performance to that point in the season gave no indication they'd lay an egg like that.  But the computer thought enough of Oregon to still pick them plus the points so got it right.  But call this one a push between the computer and polls.


Then #9 in the polls Miami lost on the road to then #11 in the polls Virginia Tech which probably wasn't really an upset with the game being in Virginia.  But my computer still picked Miami although it again had the right side of the spread.  Since the polls don't take home field advantage into account, we'll actually give this one to the polls as the computer had Miami #7 and Virginia Tech #21, a bigger gap.  Computer only one up now.


Then #18 in the polls Florida State lost at home to South Florida, and again the computer didn't pick the upset but had South Florida plus the points.  Since the computer had Florida State #14 probably call this a push too.


Then #22 in the polls North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech on the road, and the computer did pick this upset having Georgia Tech by 0.5.  Computer up two.


Then #24 in the polls Washington lost on the road to Stanford and the computer also picked this upset and had Washington no where close to the top-25 at #51.  Computer up three.

So, and I am probably a bit biased but I think the data supports it, the polls are still suffering from early season bias and at least as of last week are rating certain teams higher based solely on tradition or name.  Yet another reason to give computer ratings a look.  Check out my computers ratings through week 4 here.

Friday, September 25, 2009

2009 Week 4 College Preview Highlights

With week 4 already started, it is time for a preview of some of the interesting games.  Full picks are here.

The weekend got started last night with South Carolina upsetting Ole Miss 16-10.  While my computer did not pick the outright upset, it did pick South Carolina plus the points as it did not have Mississippi rated nearly as highly as the polls (#17 vs #4).

In other games, Notre Dame visits Purdue and is favored by over a touchdown, but the computer actually picks Purdue in the upset by just under a point.  Purdue was helped in their rating by Oregon upsetting Utah.

Houston hosts Texas Tech in what may be their toughest game of the season and is favored by 1 but the computer's pick is a touchdown.  They'll have a chance to prove they deserve their current high rating or not.

After their less than impressive win over Tennessee last week, Florida dropped a bit in the ratings but is still favored by over 3 touchdowns against Kentucky.  Due in part to last weeks closer than expected win, the computer picks Florida by under 2 touchdowns.  I wouldn't want to be Kentucky this week :O.

In the Pac-10, Oregon and Cal meet in what could be an important game given USC's faltering last week and while the game is in Oregon, Cal is favored by around a touchdown.  The computer has Cal about around 4 though so take Oregon and the points.

Also in the Pac-10, Washington has an opportunity to keep the momentum going visiting Stanford where they are a touchdown underdog but the computer picks Stanford by only 4.5 so again take the points.

Last, in the biggest game between ranked teams, Miami visits Virginia Tech.  Consistent with the above games, the computer agrees on the favorite, but has them by fewer points, in this case picking Miami by 1.1 while the line is around 3.  Miami has played only 2 games so their lower pre-season rating is still a bit of a factor so they very well could be higher rated soon.

2009 Week 3 NFL Predictions

Here are my computer's predictions for week 3 of the NFL season.  These are also posted here each week for easier reference.

After 2 weeks the computer is doing fairly well going 18-13-1 against the spread and 21-11 straight up beating Vegas' 19-12 straight up.

The computer is picking 1 upsets this week, Seattle over Chicago.  It picked and nailed 2 upsets last week (Jets over New England and Baltimore over San Diego), but this one may be farther fetched as the computer cannot take into account Seattle's injuries.

It is interesting to see Indianapolis as a road dog to Arizona, but my computer agrees.  However, I've saw a line of +3 which would still make the pick Indy and the points if you can get it.  The line may have dipped to +1 or +2 since then.

FavoriteMarginUnderdog
FavoriteMarginUnderdog
NY Jets8.5Tennessee
Washington3.5Detroit
New England0.0Atlanta
Baltimore18.5Cleveland
Minnesota2.9San Francisco
San Diego8.6Miami
Philadelphia15.5Kansas City
NY Giants8.6Tampa Bay
Houston5.1Jacksonville
Dallas10.3Carolina
Seattle2.7Chicago
Pittsburgh3.0Cincinnati
Denver2.4Oakland
Green Bay5.5St Louis
Arizona2.6Indianapolis
New Orleans4.9Buffalo

Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

2009 Week 4 College Football Predictions

qHere are my computer's predictions for week 4 of the college football season.  These also appear, and the current predictions always will, at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-predictions.  And see http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-prediction-performance for the historical performance of the picks.

These predictions are based on the week 3 ratings so there are 3 games for many teams so they should be getting a little more accurate.  With some of the upsets and results last week though, some teams may be out to prove something.  A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come later today.

FavoriteMarginUnderdog
FavoriteMarginUnderdog
Texas26.3UTEP
Syracuse14.4Maine
Southern Cal29.1Washington St
Tennessee6.3Ohio U.
Auburn25.4Ball St
East Carolina4.5Central Florida
Michigan13.0Indiana
Oklahoma St27.1Grambling St
Connecticut30.5Rhode Island
LSU6.3Mississippi St
Penn State3.7Iowa
Pittsburgh8.9North Carolina St
Purdue0.7Notre Dame
Minnesota3.4Northwestern
Baylor31.4Northwestern St
Western Michigan11.7Hofstra
Brigham Young9.2Colorado St
Houston7.3Texas Tech
Utah St12.7Southern Utah
Missouri15.5Nevada
Tulsa25.4Sam Houston St
Middle Tennessee St1.6North Texas
Florida13.3Kentucky
Marshall3.6Memphis
Iowa St7.2Army
Nebraska21.6Louisiana-Lafayette
Florida Int'l3.3Toledo
Alabama21.7Arkansas
Kansas St27.4Tennessee Tech
Boise St13.1Bowling Green
Maryland1.4Rutgers
Oregon St0.2Arizona
Georgia6.9Arizona St
Wisconsin7.0Michigan St
Kansas18.6Southern Miss
Texas A&M10.3Alabama-Birmingham
Vanderbilt3.0Rice
San Jose St1.5Cal Poly SLO
Temple1.0Buffalo
California3.9Oregon
Florida St11.3South Florida
Stanford4.5Washington
Boston College0.6Wake Forest
Georgia Tech0.5North Carolina
Ohio State16.9Illinois
Kent St8.9Miami OH
Mississippi1.6South Carolina
Utah13.5Louisville
McNeese St2.6Tulane
Miami FL1.1Virginia Tech
Northern Illinois15.6Idaho
Florida Atlantic6.0Louisiana-Monroe
Clemson1.8TCU
Navy28.9Western Kentucky
Arkansas St0.3Troy
Air Force14.8San Diego St
Cincinnati15.6Fresno St
Duke37.6North Carolina Central
Central Michigan16.8Akron
New Mexico9.2New Mexico St

Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.

Monday, September 21, 2009

2009 Week 2 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 2 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

Even though they are ranked #1, Baltimore is projected to have the best record at 14-2.  This is because they presently have the 2nd easiest schedule in all of the NFL and 4th easiest the rest of the year.  It is nice to get Cleveland and Cincinnati twice and Detroit and Oakland once each.  The #1 team, New Orleans, is only projected to finish 12-4.  Their schedule on average isn't a whole lot harder, but they don't have the gimme's Baltimore does.  The big surprise is San Francisco projected to be 12-4 along with New England only 8-8.

If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners Baltimore, New York Jets, San Diego, and Indy with wildcards Pittsburgh and Denver.  The NFC would have New York Giants, Minnesota, San Francisco, and New Orleans along with wildcards being 2 of Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Baltimore14-231.922.324.4
NY Giants13-328.616.128.1
NY Jets13-328.024.919.6
Minnesota12-425.022.818.8
San Francisco12-424.217.922.4
New Orleans12-423.223.116.7
Pittsburgh11-525.118.922.3
San Diego10-628.419.125.1
Dallas10-627.225.218.3
Atlanta10-624.118.322.0
Indianapolis10-623.216.722.6
Denver10-622.517.720.8
Philadelphia10-621.916.720.9
Arizona9-724.521.918.9
Buffalo9-722.817.221.6
Tennessee8-824.918.822.3
Chicago8-823.718.921.0
New England8-823.222.017.2
Seattle8-822.018.619.3
Cincinnati7-928.817.027.6
Green Bay7-923.620.319.4
Houston7-922.721.417.3
Washington6-1028.921.223.7
Oakland5-1127.924.719.0
Jacksonville5-1125.622.818.9
Carolina5-1123.517.822.0
Miami4-1224.722.118.7
Tampa Bay3-1326.022.220.0
Cleveland3-1324.523.516.9
St Louis3-1324.522.518.0
Kansas City2-1433.621.626.8
Detroit2-1429.428.915.1