Wednesday, March 31, 2010

College Basketball Rankings through 3/28/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/28 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Three of the final four are in the computer's top 9, but Michigan State is the outlier, not Butler, at #22.  And it appears Vegas sees it the same way with Butler being the pick.  Last week I said the computer liked Duke better than Kentucky as the pick to win it all, and it was proven right, at least thus far with Duke making it and Kentucky losing to WVU.

After the hot start in the first two rounds (29-19 against the spread), the computer stayed cool in the third round going 2-5-1 against the spread, but rebounded in the Elite Eight going 3-1.  For the tournament, it is now 35-25-1.  A summary of picks and previews are available here and here.

2Duke94.95033-582.336+0, +0.703
7West Virginia92.14931-683.548+1, +0.809
9Butler90.32732-480.382+5, +1.152
22Michigan St88.08528-881.488+6, +0.415

Monday, March 22, 2010

College Basketball Rankings through 3/21/2010

My computer's college basketball rankings through 3/21 are now posted on the web-site.

Below I've listed the rankings for the teams still in the NCAA Tournament.  Only Kansas and Texas A&M are top-10 teams that are missing from the sweet 16 and Cornell at #34 is the lowest ranked team still in.  So a pretty quality field even with some of the upsets and missing teams.  The computer has Duke being the highest rated team still in but Kentucky now seems to be the pick of all the prognosticators.

The computer had a fantastic first round predicting, going 25-7 picking winners and 22-10 against the spread while Vegas went only 19-13 picking winners.  Round 2 didn't go as well at 7-9 against the spread and 11-5 on winners with Vegas 10-6 on winners.

2Duke94.24731-581.833+0, +0.195
3Syracuse93.10630-480.966+0, +0.021
4Kentucky92.58234-280.312+1, +0.839
5Kansas St92.52227-783.312-1, +0.547
6Baylor91.68026-781.687+0, +0.174
7Ohio State91.39629-780.280+1, +0.036
8West Virginia91.34029-683.243-1, -0.141
10Purdue89.46729-581.219+4, -0.001
14Butler89.17530-479.540+6, +0.780
16Xavier OH88.94826-881.083+3, +0.508
19St Mary's CA88.34627-578.002+8, +0.573
22Washington88.06226-980.495+7, +0.465
25Northern Iowa87.80830-478.886+5, +0.430
26Tennessee87.69827-881.222+7, +0.649
28Michigan St87.67026-881.108-3, -0.274
34Cornell NY86.69927-476.238+29, +2.633

NCAA Tournament Round 2 System and Poll Comparison

With round 2 of the NCAA Tournament complete, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1 and round 1.

Point Lost
Schmidt Computer

And again, the coaches poll continues to lead, but my computer is a clear #2 and could be tied in a way as the coaches poll has already lost Villanova getting to the elite eight while my computer has Baylor getting there.

The AP and Sagarin are close behind but like the coaches, the AP is already losing points for Villanova. After a quick start the RPI has fallen behind and the tournament committee and Vegas are bringing up the rear.

More to come later.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

The computer cleans up NCAA first round against the spread

I've been focused on comparing my computer's bracket with other polls and systems but I've also been tracking how its predictions are doing against the spread and in the first round, it cleaned up.

Of the 32 first round games, the computer went a very nice 25-7 picking winners but a perhaps more astounding 22-10 against the spread.  It has slowed down a bit so far in the second round going 7-2 picking winners but only 4-5 against the spread.

Stay tuned for more and get the picks in advance by subscribing to the newsletter.

NCAA Tournament Round 1.5 System and Poll Comparison

After the first day of round 2 of the NCAA Tournament, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1 and round 1.

Point Lost
Schmidt Computer

The coaches poll continues to lead, but my computer has moved into the #2 slot tied with the RPI but having lost fewer future points.  The AP takes a step up over Sagarin while the Seeds and Vegas are still trailing.

Given that everyone had Kansas winning it all, there are a bunch of future lost points there (60) but my computer and Sagarin have only those lost points.  The Coaches poll on the other hand has already lost Temple today and Villanova in the next round.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

St. Mary's vs Villanova: Performance charts can be enlightening

On the surface, little St. Mary's, a 10 seed from the West Coast Conference against mighty Villanova, a 2 seed from the vaunted Big East should be a mismatch, but astute followers of college basketball know it very well might not be although the betting public has it as a 5 point game.  Looking at the data and particularly my computer's performance charts might lead one to believe that is still way too many points.

Here is the chart for Villanova.

From this we can see that they were a very good team for a good 2/3 of the year, but the last third didn't do so well even when they did win.  The result is that their rating and ranking by the computer has fallen all the way to #17.  You may argue that they played their toughest games down the stretch and that may be true, but we just saw several other of these tough opponents do poorly in the first round which doesn't help them.

St. Mary's on the other hand has a much different looking chart.

Here we see they have finished very strong with three of their best games of the year in their last 3 outings.  Many of their games have been less "meaningful" (smaller dots) as they've played weaker competition, but the last three have reasonably large dots indicating they are playing well against the best they've come up against all year.

What does this mean for their game?  The computer isn't quite ready to outright predict the upset as Villanova is still rated ever so slightly ahead, but it should be close.

Interested in more details on this or other tournament games?  Considering subscribing to the newsletter! See the 2010 Tournament page for an archive of the previews for subscribers.

NCAA Tournament Round 1 System and Poll Comparison

After round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, here is an update of the system and poll comparison I posted for day 1.

System/PollPointsPoint Lost
Schmidt Computer25-6

The coaches poll continues to lead, but things tighten up behind them as the three systems are in a virtual tie.  It is interesting how much better the coaches are doing than the AP.

The tournament committee continues to trail but isn't the worst in the future points lost category so perhaps there is hope for a come back.

And with the Vegas picks added, there is a new last place way back at only 19.  But with only 2 points already lost in the next round (Georgetown), there is still hope.

Another update after today's games.

Note: Updated to include Vegas picks as well.

Friday, March 19, 2010

The Computer's Analysis of NCAA Tournament Day 1

After the brackets came out, I posted several entries on what the computer thought of the seeds and strength of each region.  Let's see how some of those comments played out yesterday.

  • Kansas State was a #2 but the computer said they could have been a #1 and they played like a #1 winning by 20.
  • Villanova was a #2 but the computer said they should be a #3 and they almost lost.  Perhaps they were overrated at a #2?
  • The computer liked Georgetown as a #3 along with many others, and they dropped the ball.
  • The computer thought New Mexico was a stretch as a #3 and perhaps was right as they eked out a 5 point win over a #14 in Montana.
  • The computer thought Vanderbilt was a stretch as a #4 and was proven right as Vandy lost to a #13 Murray State.
  • Notre Dame was ok as a #6 but didn't play well and disappointed the computer.
  • BYU pulled it out, but the computer liked them better than a #7 and they didn't play that way.
  • The computer didn't like UNLV even making the tournament let alone as an 8 seed, and indeed they lost first round to a #9 Northern Iowa.
  • The computer liked Texas to be higher than a #8 but was wrong as they lost to a #9 Wake Forest that it didn't think should have made the tourney.
  • St. Mary's was a #10 that should have been higher and they proved it beating a #7 Richmond.
  • The computer liked Washington as better than a #11 and they proved it beating a #6 Marquette.
So, the computer was right on some and wrong on others, but I think it was right more than wrong which led to it going 11-5 versus the seeds going only 9-7 yesterday.  We'll see how day 2 plays out.

NCAA Tournament Day 1 System and Poll Comparison

After day 1 of the NCAA Tournament, here is the system and poll comparison I promised earlier.

System/PollPointsPoint Lost
Schmidt Computer11-2

The coaches poll is clearly beating everyone else going 13 of 16 in the first round but importantly not already losing any points in later rounds as it had Tennessee beating Georgetown in the next round anyway.

The RPI (which I added as a system to track) is doing well too, but has already lost 6 points for Georgetown going 2 rounds shorter than expected.  My computer is slightly ahead of Sagarin as we both are losing a round of Georgetown but Sagarin had Vandy going another round.

Bringing up the rear is the AP and the Tournament Committee at 10 and 9 points respectively but also already losing several point in the next round.  Yes there are always upsets, but in the early review, the seeds do not appear to be handed out properly.

Another update after today's games.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

System and Poll NCAA Tournament Bracket Comparison

Something I do every year is fill out a bracket using my computer's rankings, but then for comparison do the same for Sagarin's rankings, the AP and Coaches polls, and simply the higher seeds.  The idea is to be able to compare each system/poll to see how well each one does at predicting the tournament and thus which one can be considered the "best".

This year is not unlike past years and I have filled out a bracket for all the above and will be scoring them like most pools do, giving 1 point for a first round correct pick, 2 for a second, 4 for a third, and so on.  I'll post updates here after the completion of each day of play so all can see how the scoring progresses.

And this year with every system/poll having Kansas #1 and thus picking them as the champion, the differences are really going to boil down to how each system/poll picks the early rounds.  And each one does pick at least a few upsets and there isn't complete agreement amongst them, so it will be interesting.

Let the games begin!

Observations from the computer's bracket

As I filled out the computer's bracket, I came across some interesting observations.  For the record the computer's bracket simply has the higher rated teams going the farthest using the rankings through Sunday the 14th.  You'd think this might make for a boring bracket but there are a few surprises and interesting observations.

  • Kansas State has the toughest road to the Final Four of the computer's top-4 as the computer has them losing to Syracuse in the Regional Final.
  • The highest seeded upset predicted is Baylor to get to the Regional Final, not Villanova (3 over 2).
  • BYU has a tough road for being ranked #10 having to face #4 Kansas State in the second round.
  • Texas A&M at #15 is the highest ranked team to not be picked to make the sweet 16.
  • Butler at #20 is the lowest ranked team to be picked to make the sweet 16.
  • The west region (Syracuse) is the slowest to fill up going down the rankings, an indication of an easy road for Syracuse.
  • Missouri is the first upset (10 over 7) predicted in the first round.
  • Utah State is the highest ranked team (#26) to not be picked to win a game.  Clemson at #28 is the second.
  • The south region is the first one to completely fill up (St. Mary's at #27 completes it).
  • Northern Iowa is a 9 seed over an 8 prediction.
  • The east is the second region to fill up (New Mexico at #31).
  • The midwest is the third region to fill up (Ok. State at #36).
  • The lowest ranked team picked to win a game is Gonzaga at #38.
There you have it.  In addition to tracking my computer's picks, I will also track how the major polls would pick, the Sagarin rankings, and a few others and will be posting periodically how they compare.

Now to watch the games!

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

NIT First Round Picks

Everyone focuses on the 65 teams in the NCAA Tournament this time of year, but there is the NIT going on too so I thought I'd post the computer's picks for the first round games of that tournament.  For those interested in the NCAA play-in game, I already posted a full preview of that game.

If you are interested in getting these picks for the NCAA Tournament along with some full preview of those games, consider signing up for a subscription to the newsletter.

The pick format is as follows. The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

 .Northeastern          +7.5 over *x          Connecticut  7.4  0.1 0.861 0.505
 .Coastal_Carolina     +11.0 over *x   Alabama-Birmingham  9.2  1.8 0.926 0.611
*xSouth_Florida         -3.5 over  .    North_Carolina_St  4.0  0.5 0.723 0.527
 .Texas_Tech            +9.0 over *x           Seton_Hall  6.6  2.4 0.875 0.664
 .William_&_Mary        +8.5 over *x       North_Carolina  7.3  1.2 0.845 0.564
 .Jackson_St           +21.5 over *x       Mississippi_St 20.4  1.1 0.996 0.557
 .Jacksonville_FL      +14.5 over *x           Arizona_St 11.0  3.5 0.912 0.666
*xRhode_Island          -5.0 over  .         Northwestern  6.2  1.2 0.860 0.585
 .Quinnipiac           +14.5 over *x        Virginia_Tech 14.4  0.1 0.995 0.508
 .Weber_St             +10.0 over *x           Cincinnati  7.7  2.3 0.915 0.659
*xDayton                -7.5 over  .          Illinois_St  8.0  0.5 0.928 0.535
*xKent_St               -3.5 over  .                Tulsa  3.9  0.4 0.692 0.522
 .Troy                 +14.0 over *x          Mississippi 12.6  1.4 0.979 0.588
 .Nevada                +7.5 over *x           Wichita_St  5.4  2.1 0.821 0.638
 .St_John's_NY          +7.0 over *x              Memphis  5.0  2.0 0.767 0.612
.xStony_Brook           +6.5 over  *             Illinois  5.0  1.5 0.764 0.585

Monday, March 15, 2010

Analyzing the NCAA Tournament Regions

When the brackets come out, everyone scrambles to look at which region is the easiest and who has the simplest path to the Final Four.  The great thing about a ratings system is that analysis just falls out without any subjectivity.  So without further adieu, here is a breakdown of the regions using the week 18 ratings from my computer.

For each region, I list the average rating, the average rating for the 1-12 seeds (so as not not have the lower teams skew this too much), and the average ranking for each of those groups too.  The bold indicates the toughest rating/ranking and the italics the easiest.

RegionAvg. RatingTop-12 Avg. RatingAvg. RankingTop-12 Avg. Ranking
South (Duke)86.48088.88649.87522.083
West (Syracuse)86.25988.36049.43825.667
East (Kentucky)86.12088.18449.526.25
Midwest (Kansas)86.08888.28354.12530.5

From this, it would appear that Duke has the toughest road to the Final Four with the highest average ratings and the highest ranking for the top-12 seeds.  And Kansas, as should be the case given they are the top seed overall, has the easiest road.

This goes against some of the analysis I've seen that claims Duke has the easiest road.  Clearly the computer disagrees and we'll have to compare bracket performance to determine whose is right.

Questions?  Comments?

Sunday, March 14, 2010

NCAA Tournament Newsletter and Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Winthrop Preview

Finally, we know the 65 teams in the tournament and we can begin filling out our brackets.  A tool I'll be using to fill out mine is my computer's ratings which anyone can do, but I'll also be using it's picks against the spread, confidence in picks, and performance charts which are only available to subscribers to the Schmidt Computer Ratings 2010 NCAA Tournament Newsletter.

If you are wondering what you'll get in the newsletter, take a look at the newsletters and bowl game previews that were part of the 2009/2010 football newsletter.  Or, as a sneak peek into what the basketball previews will look like, below is a preview of the Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Winthrop play-in game.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Winthrop play on 3/16 for the right to play Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff is ranked #248 by the computer with 71.552 ratings points and a record of 17-15.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they started off with a bunch of losses, but finished with wins and had their best game of the year to finish off their tournament.

Winthrop is ranked #202 by the computer with 74.582 points and a record of 17-13.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they started the season off slow with a bunch of losses, but got it together mid year and finished the season with 2 of their best games of the year.

The teams are not separated by 2 degrees in any way but are separated by 3 degrees in 26 ways.

The line is Winthrop by 5.5 and the computer agrees they should win but by just 3 points.  Using the newsletter format* the pick is:

.Arkansas-Pine_Bluff   +5.5 over *.             Winthrop  3.0  2.5 0.707 0.671


* - Pick format. The x denotes the home team.  The * denotes the pick to win the game.  The . is just a place holder.  The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports.  The team on the left is the pick against the spread.  The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by.  The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction.  The next column is the confidence of my pick to win.  The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

Again, if you are interested in getting this type of preview for all NCAA tournament games, subscribe to the newsletter today!  E-mail any questions or leave a comment.

What the computer thinks of the NCAA tournament committee's selections

With the last 4 games played and the tournament selections made, we can now get down to business about looking at the 65 teams, but before we do that, let's use the computer to critique the selection committee's choices.  The latest rankings by the computer are here.

The list of teams the computer says should have been in the tournament are listed below, but the only change from yesterday is that Mississippi State's close loss to Kentucky did indeed move them ahead of Virginia Tech.  But that doesn't really matter now as the picks have been made so lets list them by seeds:

Note: Updated 3/15 AM to include all, not just Division I-A games in the source data.  Only minor changes
  • #1's

    • Kansas - The computer agrees they are a 1 and that they are the top seed overall.
    • Kentucky - Only to the second team and the computer disagrees having UK #5 and thus should have been a 2.
    • Duke - Yep, a 1 with the computer having them #2 overall.
    • Syracuse - Yep, a 1 as well and #3 overall.

  • #2's

    • Ohio State - A 2 is appropriate (#8 overall)
    • West Virginia - A 2 is right (#7)
    • Kansas State - The computer liked them (barely) as the other 1 seed (#4)
    • Villanova - The computer had them a 3 (#11)

  • #3's

    • Georgetown - A 3 is right (#9)
    • New Mexico - First big stretch as the computer as the computer has them #31!
    • Pitt - Also a stretch the computer having them #23
    • Baylor - Could have been a 2 (#6)

  • #4's

    • Maryland - A 4 is right (#13)
    • Wisconsin - Could have been a 3 (#12)
    • Vanderbilt - Another stretch (#32)
    • Purdue - A 4 is right (#14)

  • #5's

    • Michigan State - A little high here, should be a 7 (#25)
    • Temple - A 5 is right (#17)
    • Butler - A 5 is right (#20)
    • Texas A&M - Could have been a 4 (#15)

  • #6's

    • Tennessee - A bit high, should be a 9 (#33)
    • Marquette - Could have been a 5 (#18)
    • Xavier - Could have been a 5 (#19)
    • Notre Dame - A 6 is right (#21)

  • #7's

    • Oklahoma St - A bit high, should be a 9 (#36)
    • Clemson - A 7 is right (#28)
    • BYU - Much too low, should be a 3 (#10)
    • Richmond - Too high, should be an 11 (#43)

  • #8's

    • UNLV - Shouldn't have made it, first out (#46)
    • Texas - A bit low, should be a 6 (#22)
    • Gonzaga - A bit high, should be a 10 (#38)
    • California - A bit low, should be a 4 (#16)

  • #9's

    • Northern Iowa - Close, should be an 8 (#30)
    • Wake Forest - Second that should not have made the tourney (#59)
    • Florida State - Close, should be an 11 (#41)
    • Louisville - Close, should be a 10 (#37)

  • #10's

    • Georgia Tech - A 10 is right (#40)
    • Missouri - Too low, should be a 6 (#24)
    • Florida - Third that shouldn't have made it (#49)
    • St. Mary's - Too low, should be a 7 (#27)

  • #11's

    • San Diego State - Close, should be a 10 (#39)
    • Washington - Too low, should be an 8 (#29)
    • Minnesota - Too low, should be a 9 (#34)
    • Old Dominion - Close, should be a 12 (#47)

  • #12's

    • New Mexico State - A bit high, should be a 14 (#97)
    • Cornell - Close, should be a 13 (#63)
    • UTEP - Too low, should be a 9 (#35)
    • Utah State - Way too low, should be a 7! (#26)

  • #13's

    • Houston - A 13 is right (#87)
    • Wofford - A 13 is right (#75)
    • Murray State - Close, should be a 12 (#57)
    • Siena - Close, should be a 12 (#50)

  • #14's

    • Ohio U - Close, should be a 13 (#86)
    • Montana - A 14 is right (#95)
    • Oakland - A 14 is right (#118)
    • Sam Houston State - A 14 is right (#96)

  • #15's

    • UC Santa Barbara - A 15 is right (#137)
    • Morgan State - A 15 is right (#156)
    • North Texas - Close, should be a 16 (#168)
    • Robert Morris - Close, should be a 16 (#185)

  • #16's

    • Lehigh - A 16 is right (#179)
    • East Tennessee State - Close, should be a 15 (#151)
    • Vermont - Close, should be a 15 (#140)
    • Arkansas Pine Bluff - A 16 is right (#248)
    • Winthrop - A 16 is right (#202)
So, a few seeds way off (Utah State, Richmond, BYU, Missouri) , and three that the computer says shouldn't have made it (UNLV, Wake Forest, and Florida).  Who should have made it instead of those 2? Virginia Tech should have been the last team in (#45), Mississippi State right behind them (#44), and Dayton should also have made it (#42).

Here is the list of who should have made it.  Those with an asterisk got the auto-bids for their conferences.

1Kansas*96.69532-281.936+0, +0.406
2Duke*94.05229-582.194+0, -0.656
3Syracuse93.08528-481.279+0, -0.525
4Kansas St91.97525-783.212+2, +0.688
5Kentucky*91.74332-280.255+0, +0.337
6Baylor91.50624-781.465+1, +0.246
7West Virginia*91.48127-683.783-3, -0.327
8Ohio State*91.36027-780.386+0, +0.400
9Georgetown DC91.02623-1083.837+7, +1.653
10Brigham Young90.32228-578.355+0, -0.468
11Villanova90.24224-782.614+0, -0.364
12Wisconsin89.88323-881.520+0, -0.676
13Maryland89.63022-881.139+0, -0.622
14Purdue89.46827-581.085-5, -1.392
15Texas A&M89.17022-982.486-1, -0.443
16California89.10723-1081.780+3, +0.129
17Temple*89.06929-580.618+6, +0.764
18Marquette88.53122-1181.482-1, -0.520
19Xavier OH88.44024-880.791+1, -0.360
20Butler*88.39528-479.054+6, +0.572
21Notre Dame88.35623-1180.569+7, +0.728
22Texas88.28724-981.613-4, -0.723
23Pittsburgh88.23624-881.738-2, -0.329
24Missouri88.20422-1080.271-9, -1.253
25Michigan St87.94424-881.096-3, -0.479
26Utah St87.91126-777.637+1, +0.183
27St Mary's CA*87.77325-577.674+10, +0.925
28Clemson87.74321-1081.259-4, -0.509
29Washington*87.59724-980.411+7, +0.709
30Northern Iowa*87.37828-478.375+1, -0.065
31New Mexico87.13129-479.036-2, -0.483
32Vanderbilt87.11223-881.499-2, -0.396
33Tennessee87.04925-881.012-1, -0.359
34Minnesota87.04021-1381.111+13, +1.181
35UTEP86.99726-677.238+3, +0.176
36Oklahoma St86.94122-1080.788-2, -0.251
37Louisville86.92020-1282.059-4, -0.421
38Gonzaga86.80225-678.407-13, -1.022
39San Diego St*86.72623-880.095+6, +0.744
40Georgia Tech86.68121-1281.943+4, +0.454
41Florida St86.53422-980.958-6, -0.560
42Dayton86.32820-1279.963-3, -0.321
43Richmond86.26426-879.580+0, -0.049
44Mississippi St86.03023-1179.664+12, +1.182
45Virginia Tech85.95023-879.377-3, -0.380
47Old Dominion*85.86826-878.328-1, -0.016
50Siena*85.24827-676.776+4, -0.013
57Murray St*84.76328-473.003+0, -0.045
63Cornell NY*84.06625-475.351-1, -0.001
75Wofford*82.71925-875.831+1, +0.028
86Ohio U.*82.08720-1477.052+15, +1.336
87Houston*82.06918-1578.773+19, +1.479
95Montana*81.49520-975.497+1, +0.399
96Sam Houston St*81.25021-774.723-1, +0.116
97New Mexico St*81.20821-1178.728+24, +1.663
118Oakland*79.84824-876.224+15, +0.960
137UC-Santa Barbara*78.61919-976.404+13, +0.706
140Vermont*78.38225-972.732+6, +0.296
151East Tennessee St*77.82419-1475.863+0, -0.080
156Morgan St*77.68127-972.829+4, +0.459
168North Texas*76.83722-873.422+4, +0.270
179Lehigh*76.11422-1070.718+6, +0.187
185Robert Morris PA*75.86823-1172.187+7, +0.261
202Winthrop*74.67717-1373.493+0, -0.082
248Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.67017-1572.800+6, +0.386

The computer's view of ESPN's Bubble Watch

ESPN has updated their Bubble Watch through yesterday's games and it is always interesting to compare what they list against what the computer says.  So here goes.  See the last blog entry from last night for the current computer's rankings.


ESPN has Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and FSU all in with Virginia Tech a "should be in".  The computer agrees that VT should be in, albeit the last at-large in, but doesn't think WF should be as they are only #59 compared with VT's #45.

Big East

ESPN has West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Marquette in with Seton Hall having work to do.  The computer agrees Seton Hall has work to do being at #54, but actually likes UConn better at #48 although they shouldn't be in presently.

Big Televen

ESPN has Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State in with Minnesota a "should be" and Illinois work to do.  The computer says Minnesota is better than a should be having them with lock status at #29 but Illinois having a lot of work to do at #56.


ESPN has Kansas, K-State, Baylor, TAMU, Texas, OSU, and Missouri in and no one on the bubble.  The computer agrees.


ESPN has Washington and Cal in and the computer agrees, although ASU could be bubble worthy at #53.


ESPN has Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt in with Florida, Ole Miss, and Miss St. having work to do.  The computer agrees having MSU just outside at #47 and Florida and Ole Miss just behind at #50 and #51 respectively.

Mountain West

ESPN has San Diego State, New Mexico, BYU, and UNLV in and the computer agrees.


ESPN has Temple, Xavier, and Richmond in with Rhode Island having work to do.  The computer agrees on the first 3 having Richmond the next to last in at #44, but likes Dayton much better than Rhode Island as they are #42 (should be in) compared to #58.


ESPN has Utah State and UTEP as "should be in" and the computer agrees having them #26 and #35 so there shouldn't be any question.

If you are interested in detailed comparisons/charts, leave a comment and I'll post them.

More to come after today's games.  And follow @computerratings to see other periodic updates.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Updated: Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament

With just 4 games remaining tomorrow, who the computer says should make the 65 team tournament is getting clearer.  And with a few upsets getting auto-bids for a few teams that wouldn't have gotten them otherwise, the number of at-large spots for teams on the bubble has shrunk making things more interesting.

The last at-large spot now goes to #45 Virginia Tech after it had been in the high 40's previously.  This thanks to New Mexico State and Houston at #100 and #87 getting in.  The other 3 making up the last 4 in are Richmond, UNLV, and Dayton.  The first 4 out are Mississippi State, UConn, Florida, and Ole Miss.  It is interesting that the SEC has 3 of those 4 on the outside looking in.

But, the 4 games tomorrow could change things!  Mississippi State could play their way in ahead of VT even with a close loss.  Anything better than a 3 point loss to Kentucky would move them fractionally ahead of VT.

Georgia Tech is pretty secure, anything better than a 20 point loss should keep them from dropping out of the teams that should be in.  Minnesota too should be safe.

The Richmond situation is more interesting.  They are in at #44 now but a 12 point loss to Temple could drop them behind both VT and Miss St.

According to ESPN's latest bracketology, VT, Minnesota, and Miss St are the last 3 in.  I have Minnesota in comfortably and they seem to have Miss St in instead of Dayton.  They don't even have Dayton in the list of the first 4 out.  Just for fun, lets take a look at the performance charts for both teams to compare.

Both teams played better earlier in the year, Miss St had two bad losses late, Dayton one, but Dayton lost in their semis while Miss St has made the final.  If you want to give more weight to the very recent, you can make an argument that Dayton should be out and Miss St in but the computer does look at the whole year while giving the most recent some additional weight.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what happens.

1Kansas*96.60032-281.833+0, +0.177
2Duke*94.12628-581.962+0, -0.344
3Syracuse92.99628-481.180+0, -0.025
4Kentucky*91.91431-279.980+3, +0.716
5Kansas St91.89525-783.119-1, -0.216
6Baylor91.40724-781.357-1, -0.045
7West Virginia*91.36527-683.659-1, +0.032
8Georgetown DC90.92323-1083.732+0, -0.091
9Ohio State*90.50726-780.116+1, +0.052
10Villanova90.13724-782.506+1, -0.001
11Brigham Young90.01128-578.165+1, -0.091
12Wisconsin89.75323-881.383+1, -0.033
13Maryland89.53022-881.031+1, -0.024
14Purdue89.39627-580.984-5, -1.181
15Texas A&M89.08522-982.385+1, +0.022
16California88.96923-1081.635-1, -0.258
17Temple*88.95728-580.378+2, +0.443
18Xavier OH88.37724-880.708-1, -0.396
19Butler*88.28228-478.941+3, +0.032
20Marquette88.26122-1181.269+0, -0.022
21Notre Dame88.25723-1180.467+0, -0.011
22Texas88.18424-981.496+1, -0.020
23Pittsburgh88.14424-881.637+1, -0.000
24Missouri88.10222-1080.153+1, -0.022
25Michigan St87.87824-881.018+1, +0.014
26Utah St87.78926-777.523-8, -0.773
27Clemson87.64321-1081.154+1, -0.022
28St Mary's CA*87.63725-577.532+3, +0.014
29Minnesota87.55621-1280.653+10, +0.993
30Washington*87.47124-980.278+3, +0.291
31Northern Iowa*87.28128-478.259+1, -0.012
32Vanderbilt87.02123-881.403-5, -0.658
33New Mexico87.00229-478.907+1, +0.039
34Tennessee86.98825-880.938-5, -0.676
35UTEP86.87626-677.112-5, -0.780
36Louisville86.85120-1281.995+1, -0.009
37Oklahoma St86.84222-1080.684-1, -0.037
38Gonzaga86.68325-678.289+0, +0.005
39Georgia Tech86.44621-1181.482+1, -0.022
40San Diego St*86.42023-879.872+4, +0.570
41Florida St86.40722-980.821+1, +0.015
42Dayton86.38920-1279.970-1, -0.060
43UNLV86.33124-879.348-8, -0.572
44Richmond86.24126-779.192-1, +0.377
45Virginia Tech85.85023-879.278+0, +0.039
46Old Dominion*85.77526-878.229+0, +0.018
49Siena*85.33327-676.784-1, +0.023
57Murray St*84.65828-472.890+1, -0.003
63Cornell NY*83.96925-475.251-1, +0.020
73Wofford*82.72025-875.720+0, -0.004
86Ohio U.*81.97920-1476.940+2, +0.212
87Houston*81.96118-1578.664+7, +0.648
95Montana*81.16320-975.227+0, +0.000
96Sam Houston St*81.13521-774.613+8, +0.640
100New Mexico St*80.90721-1178.498+8, +0.625
118Oakland*79.72924-876.105+0, +0.010
137UC-Santa Barbara*78.50819-976.289+2, +0.257
138Vermont*78.48525-972.717+8, +0.579
150East Tennessee St*77.72219-1475.759+1, -0.025
155Morgan St*77.57927-972.734+1, +0.021
166North Texas*76.87221-873.416-1, +0.009
177Lehigh*76.19622-1070.726+0, +0.002
191Robert Morris PA*75.55323-1171.958+0, +0.012
202Winthrop*74.59017-1373.403+0, -0.007
248Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.55717-1572.683+9, +0.554

Who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament 3/13 version

Here is the updated list of who the computer says should make the NCAA tournament using games played through Friday.  The change column is the change in ranking/rating since yesterday.  Those with an asterisk are those that are already in or projected to be the conference representative.

The last 4 at-large in would presently be San Diego State, Virginia Tech, UConn, and Florida.  The first 4 on the outside would be Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Memphis, and Rhode Island.  The next 4 after that are Seton Hall, ASU, Illinois, and Virginia Commonwealth.

Some of the possible changes with a few games left are:

  • Rhode Island may have a chance to eke into an at-large spot with a win today over Temple in the A-10 semis.
  • Mississippi St. made a move to get to the second team not making it and a win today would likely get them in, possibly at the expense of SEC foe Florida.
  • Illinois has farther to go, but a win over Ohio State could do it for them.
  • Virginia Tech, UConn, and Florida are done and with wins by teams behind them could be passed.
  • San Diego State with a loss could also get passed.

Stay tuned for more updates.

1Kansas*96.42331-281.562+0, +0.454
2Duke*94.47027-581.899+0, -0.051
3Syracuse93.02128-481.196+0, +0.110
4Kansas St92.11125-682.722+1, +0.442
5Baylor91.45224-781.391-1, -0.384
6West Virginia*91.33326-683.479+0, -0.039
7Kentucky*91.19830-279.813+0, -0.042
8Georgetown DC91.01423-983.485+4, +0.782
9Purdue*90.57727-480.728+0, -0.029
10Ohio State90.45525-779.987-2, -0.305
11Villanova90.13824-782.506+2, -0.035
12Brigham Young90.10228-578.233-2, -0.389
13Wisconsin89.78623-881.437-2, -0.545
14Maryland89.55422-881.044+0, -0.505
15California*89.22723-981.407+2, +0.213
16Texas A&M89.06322-982.360-1, -0.251
17Xavier OH*88.77324-780.537+1, +0.121
18Utah St*88.56226-677.396+8, +0.581
19Temple88.51427-580.271+4, +0.329
20Marquette88.28322-1181.290-4, -0.791
21Notre Dame88.26823-1180.481+0, +0.065
22Butler*88.25028-478.910+0, +0.052
23Texas88.20424-981.516-4, -0.027
24Pittsburgh88.14424-881.636+0, +0.016
25Missouri88.12422-1080.160+0, +0.084
26Michigan St87.86424-880.998-6, -0.350
27Vanderbilt87.67923-781.251+2, +0.317
28Clemson87.66521-1081.177-1, +0.002
29Tennessee87.66425-780.612+4, +0.494
30UTEP*87.65626-576.890+2, +0.478
31St Mary's CA*87.62325-577.519-3, +0.082
32Northern Iowa*87.29328-478.267-2, +0.034
33Washington87.18023-980.007+4, +0.390
34New Mexico86.96329-478.869-3, -0.234
35UNLV*86.90324-779.106+5, +0.472
36Oklahoma St86.87922-1080.703-1, +0.023
37Louisville86.86020-1281.998-1, +0.020
38Gonzaga86.67825-678.285+0, +0.047
39Minnesota86.56320-1280.445+2, +0.337
40Georgia Tech86.46820-1181.435+4, +0.448
41Dayton86.44920-1280.023-2, -0.142
42Florida St86.39222-980.815-8, -0.545
43Richmond85.86425-778.905+0, -0.187
44San Diego St85.85022-879.686+4, +0.293
45Virginia Tech85.81123-879.248-3, -0.354
46Old Dominion*85.75726-878.205-1, +0.051
47Connecticut85.45617-1582.866+2, +0.005
48Siena*85.31027-676.759+2, +0.047
49Florida85.29321-1280.128-3, -0.323
58Murray St*84.66128-472.896-2, +0.020
62Cornell NY*83.94925-475.225+0, +0.056
73Wofford*82.72425-875.725+2, +0.043
88Ohio U.*81.76719-1476.846+5, +0.443
95Montana*81.16320-975.218+0, +0.062
104Sam Houston St*80.49520-774.502+1, +0.028
117Pacific CA*79.72720-1176.044-7, -0.375
118Oakland*79.71924-876.093+0, +0.016
146Vermont*77.90624-972.613-2, +0.040
151East Tennessee St*77.74719-1475.794-2, +0.022
156Morgan St*77.55826-972.766+2, +0.123
165North Texas*76.86321-873.421-1, +0.022
177Lehigh*76.19422-1070.715+6, +0.468
191Robert Morris PA*75.54123-1171.947+0, +0.054
202Winthrop*74.59717-1373.411+0, +0.041
257Arkansas-Pine Bluff*71.00316-1572.879+0, +0.044