Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2011 Valero Alamo Bowl Preview - Baylor to win, Washington to cover

The Valero Alamo Bowl will take place on 12/29 pitting Washington against Baylor. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Washington is ranked #53 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.781 against a schedule strength of 69.895. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very up and down this year, their worst game being at Oregon State and best game being at Utah. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-6 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



Baylor is ranked #15 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 78.690 against a schedule strength of 71.994. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were ok early, but great late, their worst game being at Texas A&M and best game being against Texas. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees in only one way, an indication of how little big Pac-12 and Big-12 play, as follows:

3 Washington-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St-->Baylor

The spread is Baylor by 10 and the computer agrees picking them by 8.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Washington           +10.0 over *.               Baylor  8.9  1.1 0.817 0.544

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.