Sunday, December 11, 2011

Free 2011 New Mexico Bowl Preview

This post is the first of a series of bowl preview posts that will appear here.  This preview is being posted early as a free preview, but others will be posted right around game time for each bowl.  If you would like to receive the previews 5+ days prior to each game, a subscription is available and for subscriptions purchased thru 12/16/2011, the NFL playoff game previews will be included.


The New Mexico Bowl will take place on 12/17 pitting Temple against Wyoming.

Temple is ranked #56 by the computer with an 8-4 record and a rating of 69.103 against a schedule strength of 60.048.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down but finished a bit up, their worst game being against Toledo and best game being at Ball State.  They are 4-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5 picking their games against the spread and 4-3 picking winners in their games.



Wyoming is ranked #77 by the computer with an 8-4 record and a rating of 64.895 against a schedule strength of 63.574.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent with a few low points in the first 1/3 of the season, their worst game being at Utah State and best game being at Air Force.  They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Bowling Green as follows:

2 Temple-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Army-->Air_Force-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Army-->San_Diego_St-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Buffalo-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Kent_St-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Miami_OH-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Ohio_U.-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Penn_State-->Nebraska-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Toledo-->Boise_St-->Wyoming
3 Temple-->Toledo-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming

Against Bowling Green, Temple lost on the road 13-10 while Wyoming won on the road 28-27.

Even though Wyoming won at Bowling Green and Temple lost, the spread is Temple by 6.5 and the computer agrees, but by less, picking them by 4.2.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Wyoming               +6.5 over  *               Temple  4.2  2.3 0.647 0.582

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team.  The * denotes the pick to win the game.  The . is just a place holder.  The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports.  The team on the left is the pick against the spread.  The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by.  The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction.  The next column is the confidence of my pick to win.  The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.