Saturday, December 31, 2011

2012 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Preview - Oklahoma State to win and cover

The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Stanford against Oklahoma State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Stanford is ranked #9 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 82.684 against a schedule strength of 68.824. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent except for their loss, their worst game being against Oregon and best game being at Southern Cal. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



Oklahoma State is ranked #3 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 87.587 against a schedule strength of 72.696. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were almost as consistent, but also had a bad loss, their worst game being at Iowa State and best game being against Oklahoma. They are 6-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Arizona and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Stanford-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Arizona-->Louisiana-Lafayette-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Colorado-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Oregon-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Oregon_St-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Southern_Cal-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->UCLA-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->UCLA-->Texas-->Oklahoma_St
3 Stanford-->Washington-->Arizona-->Oklahoma_St

Against Arizona, Stanford won 37-10 on the road and Oklahoma State won 37-14 at home.

The spread is Oklahoma State by 3.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 4.9. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Oklahoma State -3.5 over . Stanford 4.9 1.4 0.654 0.545

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.