Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Preview - Tulsa to win and cover

The Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Brigham Young against Tulsa. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Brigham Young is ranked #45 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 71.014 against a schedule strength of 63.055. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent after an early glitch against Utah, their worst game being against Utah and best game being at Hawaii. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Tulsa is ranked #34 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 72.462 against a schedule strength of 67.210. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent until their loss against Houston, their worst game being against Houston and best game being against SMU. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5 picking their games against the spread and 7-0 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Central Florida and 3 degrees as follows:


2 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->Alabama-Birmingham-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->Marshall-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->SMU-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Central_Florida-->UTEP-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Hawaii-->Tulane-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->New_Mexico_St-->UTEP-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->TCU-->Boise_St-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->TCU-->SMU-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Texas-->Oklahoma_St-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Texas-->Oklahoma-->Tulsa
3 Brigham_Young-->Texas-->Rice-->Tulsa

Against Central Florida, BYU won 24-17 at home and Tulsa won 24-17 on the road.


The spread is even and the computer also has it close picking Tulsa by 1.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Tulsa -0.0 over . Brigham Young 1.4 1.4 0.548 0.548

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.