Friday, December 30, 2011

2011 Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview - Auburn to win and cover

The Chick-fil-A Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Virginia against Auburn. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Virginia is ranked #63 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 67.282 against a schedule strength of 65.457. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down late in the year, their worst game being against North Carolina State and best game being at Miami FL. They are 2-4-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5-1 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



Auburn is ranked #35 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 72.375 against a schedule strength of 72.726. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down and certainly down from last year, their worst game being against Florida Atlantic and best game being at South Carolina. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-5 picking their games against the spread and 5-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees and by 3 degrees:


3 Virginia-->Florida_St-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Florida_St-->Florida-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Georgia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Georgia_Tech-->Georgia-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Idaho-->Utah_St-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Maryland-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->North_Carolina-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->North_Carolina_St-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn
3 Virginia-->Virginia_Tech-->Clemson-->Auburn


The spread is Auburn by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 5.1. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Auburn -1.5 over . Virginia 5.1 3.6 0.711 0.653

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.