Tuesday, December 20, 2011

2011 Beef'O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl Preview

The Beef'O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl will take place on 12/20 pitting Florida Int'l against Marshall. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Florida Int'l is ranked #82 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 63.166 against a schedule strength of 57.505. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were good early then a bit down, but finished a bit better, their worst game being against Troy and best game being at Louisville. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.



Marshall is ranked #91 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 61.950 against a schedule strength of 66.700. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down all year, their worst game being at Ohio U. and best game being against Southern Miss. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 7-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Central Florida and Louisville as follows:


2 Florida_Int'l-->Central_Florida-->Marshall
2 Florida_Int'l-->Louisville-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Akron-->Ohio_U.-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Arkansas_St-->Memphis-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Arkansas_St-->Virginia_Tech-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Central_Florida-->Alabama-Birmingham-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Central_Florida-->East_Carolina-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Central_Florida-->Memphis-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Central_Florida-->Southern_Miss-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Central_Florida-->Tulsa-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Duke-->Virginia_Tech-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Florida_Atlantic-->Alabama-Birmingham-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Louisville-->West_Virginia-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Middle_Tennessee_St-->Memphis-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->North_Texas-->Houston-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->North_Texas-->Tulsa-->Marshall
3 Florida_Int'l-->Troy-->Alabama-Birmingham-->Marshall


Against Central Florida, Florida Int'l won 17-10 at home and Marshall lost 16-6 on the road.  Against Louisville, Florida Int'l won 24-17 on the road and Marshall won 17-13 on the road.

The spread is Florida Int'l by 4.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by just 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Marshall +4.5 over * Florida Int'l 1.2 3.3 0.549 0.631

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

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