Tuesday, December 27, 2011

2011 Military Bowl Preview - Toledo to win and cover

The Military Bowl will take place on 12/28 pitting Toledo against Air Force. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Toledo is ranked #31 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 73.236 against a schedule strength of 65.935. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being at Syracuse and best game being at Temple. They are 4-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-4 picking their games against the spread and 4-2 picking winners in their games.



Air Force is ranked #77 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 64.782 against a schedule strength of 62.266. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were more consistent, their worst game being against San Diego State and best game being at Boise State. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-4 picking their games against the spread and 5-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Boise State as follows:


2 Toledo-->Boise_St-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Ball_St-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->Colorado_St-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->New_Mexico-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->San_Diego_St-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->TCU-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->UNLV-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Boise_St-->Wyoming-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Miami_OH-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Northern_Illinois-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Temple-->Army-->Air_Force
3 Toledo-->Temple-->Wyoming-->Air_Force

Against Boise State, Toledo lost 40-15 at home and Air Force lost 37-26 on the road.


The spread is Toledo by 3 and the computer agrees picking them by more, 7.6.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Toledo -3.0 over .. Air Force 7.6 4.6 0.788 0.686

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.