Wednesday, December 21, 2011

2011 Poinsettia Bowl Preview - TCU to win, Louisiana Tech to cover

The Poinsettia Bowl will take place on 12/21 pitting TCU against Louisiana Tech. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

TCU is ranked #17 by the computer with a 10-2 record and a rating of 77.422 against a schedule strength of 63.775. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were very consistent except for the loss to SMU, their worst game being against SMU and best game being at Boise State. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



Louisiana Tech is ranked #41 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 71.690 against a schedule strength of 65.631. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also very consistent except for their game against Hawaii, their worst game being against Hawaii and best game being at Mississippi. They are 7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees through a bunch of teams as follows:


3 TCU-->Boise_St-->Fresno_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Boise_St-->Nevada-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Brigham_Young-->Hawaii-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Brigham_Young-->Idaho-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Brigham_Young-->Mississippi-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Brigham_Young-->New_Mexico_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Brigham_Young-->San_Jose_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Brigham_Young-->Utah_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Colorado_St-->San_Jose_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Colorado_St-->Utah_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->New_Mexico-->Nevada-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->New_Mexico-->New_Mexico_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->San_Diego_St-->Fresno_St-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->SMU-->Houston-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->SMU-->Southern_Miss-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->UNLV-->Hawaii-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->UNLV-->Nevada-->Louisiana_Tech
3 TCU-->Wyoming-->Utah_St-->Louisiana_Tech


The spread is TCU by 11 and the computer agrees but by quite a bit less picking them by 5.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Louisiana Tech +11.0 over * TCU 5.7 5.3 0.715 0.699

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.