Saturday, December 17, 2011

2011 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Preview - Ohio U. vs Utah State

The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Bowl will take place on 12/17 pitting Ohio U. against Utah State.  A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Ohio U. is ranked #69 by the computer with a 9-4 record and a rating of 66.228 against a schedule strength of 59.527.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent with a group of 4 games mid-season pulling them down a bit but finishing consistently in their last 5, their worst game being against Ball State and best game being against Marshall.  They are 2-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Utah State is ranked #67 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 66.310 against a schedule strength of 63.694.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were not that consistent, some big swings up and down, their worst game being against Colorado State and best game being against Wyoming.  They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through New Mexico State and 3 degrees 9 ways as follows:


2 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->Bowling_Green-->Idaho-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->Bowling_Green-->Wyoming-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Brigham_Young-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Fresno_St-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Hawaii-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Idaho-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Louisiana_Tech-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->Nevada-->Utah_St
3 Ohio_U.-->New_Mexico_St-->San_Jose_St-->Utah_St

Ohio U won at NM State 44-24 while Utah State won on the road 24-21.


The spread is Utah State by 3 and the computer agrees but by a smaller margin, predicting a really close game having the margin just 0.1.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Ohio_U.               +3.0 over *.              Utah_St  0.1  2.9 0.504 0.630

Enjoy!



Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team.  The * denotes the pick to win the game.  The . is just a place holder.  The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports.  The team on the left is the pick against the spread.  The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by.  The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction.  The next column is the confidence of my pick to win.  The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.