Thursday, December 22, 2011

2011 MAACO Las Vegas Bowl Preview - Boise State to win, ASU to cover

The MAACO Las Vegas Bowl will take place on 12/22 pitting Arizona State against Boise State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Arizona State is ranked #34 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 72.771 against a schedule strength of 68.884. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were good early but then really went down hill, their worst game being at Washington State and best game being against Southern Cal. They are 3-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 2-7 picking their games against the spread and 5-4 picking winners in their games.



Boise State is ranked #9 by the computer with a 11-1 record and a rating of 82.762 against a schedule strength of 65.081. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also good early but tailed off a bit primarily due to a weaker schedule, their worst game being against Air Force and best game being against Georgia. They are 2-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-1 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Arizona_St-->California-->Fresno_St-->Boise_St
3 Arizona_St-->Colorado-->Colorado_St-->Boise_St
3 Arizona_St-->Oregon-->Nevada-->Boise_St
3 Arizona_St-->Washington_St-->San_Diego_St-->Boise_St
3 Arizona_St-->Washington_St-->UNLV-->Boise_St


The spread is Boise State by 14 and the computer agrees but only by just over 10. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Arizona State +14.0 over *. Boise State 10.3 3.7 0.851 0.645

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

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