Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl Preview - Texas A&M to win and cover (barely)

The Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Texas A%team1%M against Northwestern. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Texas A&M is ranked #14 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 78.742 against a schedule strength of 73.124. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, their worst game being against Missouri and best game being against Baylor. They are 0-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



Northwestern is ranked #57 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 68.598 against a schedule strength of 66.313. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were down a bit early, then better, their worst game being at Army and best game being at Nebraska. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees and 3 degrees in only 4 ways as follows:


3 Texas_A&M-->Baylor-->Rice-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->Iowa_St-->Iowa-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->SMU-->Rice-->Northwestern
3 Texas_A&M-->Texas-->Rice-->Northwestern


The spread is Texas A&M by 10 and the computer agrees picking them by 10.1. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Texas A&M -10.0 over .. Northwestern 10.1 0.1 0.895 0.507

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.