Monday, December 19, 2011

Current 2012 Superbowl Chances as of Week 15

With 2 weeks to go in the regular season, we are close enough to start looking at odds of winning the Superbowl.  Specifically, using my computer's projected playoff teams, here are the current chances of getting to and winning the Superbowl.

TeamGet toWin
Green_Bay0.5590.342
New_England0.5060.255
San_Francisco0.2560.132
Houston0.2210.083
Pittsburgh0.1330.055
New_Orleans0.0980.049
Baltimore0.0790.032
Dallas0.0330.012
Atlanta0.0290.012
Denver0.0350.010
NY_Jets0.0270.009
Detroit0.0230.009

It is no surprise that Green Bay is an odds on favorite to get to the big game and the team with the best chance to win it all (34.2%), but New England also has a better than 50% chance of getting to the Superbowl.  Naturally, San Francisco and Houston, the other teams with the byes, are the next most likely.

What is perhaps a bit of a surprise is that Baltimore, a projected wildcard, has a better chance of getting to the Superbowl than Denver, a division winner does.  Also, Atlanta, a wildcard, has as good a chance of winning the Superbowl as division winner Dallas.