Wednesday, April 22, 2015

USTA League Players and Reports by State - Interesting Tennis League Stats

I've shared a variety of stats on USTA League play including a pie chart of league players by state, but seeing wedges in a pie chart is only so interesting and doesn't give you a real geographical feel.  So here is a heat map showing the players by state.


This map has California as one rather than the two sections it is, so it has the clear lead.  Texas and Georgia are not far behind though.

Something I like to look at periodically is where players are from that are getting Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports.  It is still fairly early in the year and Spring leagues are just getting started in some sections, but here is how things look for 2015 so far.


Most states are represented, and many that aren't have been active in the past, they just may not have had much league play yet so players haven't gotten reports yet this year.

If you'd like to do your part to turn your state a darker shade of blue/purple, contact me to get a report for you, your team, or the sub-flight your team is in.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 55+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 55 & over division?

This is the next in the series of "It's only April but let's handicap Nationals already!" posts and previews.

To do this handicapping, I use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the men's 55 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.  Note that in 55+, it is a combined league but I'm still showing averages of individuals.

Men 6.0

Pacific Northwest / Southern Oregon - 3.00
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 2.91
Pacific Northwest / Southern Oregon - 2.88
Pacific Northwest / Seattle - 2.87
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 2.85

PNW Sectionals should be something!

Men 7.0

Southern California / Coachella Valley - 3.61
Texas / North Houston - 3.52
Southwest / Southern Arizona - 3.49
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 3.48
Pacific Northwest / Portland - 3.48

Warmer climate teams rear their heads.

Men 8.0

Texas / North Houston - 3.99
Southwest / Southern Arizona - 3.94
Missouri Valley / Kansas - 3.94
Southern California / Coachella Valley - 3.94
Northern / Twin Cities - 3.94

A very tight group.

Men 9.0

Pacific Northwest / Portland - 4.43
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.42
Southwest / Central Arizona - 4.40
Southern / South Carolina / CCTA - 4.40
Texas / Dallas - 4.38

Southern shows up.

What do you think?

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 18 & over division?

This is the next in the series of "It's only April but let's handicap Nationals already!" posts and previews.

To do this handicapping, I use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the women's 18 & over division and at each level, and identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Women 2.5

Northern California / Lower Peninsula - 2.79
Texas / Fort Worth - 2.77
Texas / San Antonio - 2.75
Northern California / Lower Peninsula - 2.68
Southern / Georgia / EVTA - 2.67

Some high rated "2.5" teams!  Seriously, 2.5 flights typically have a lot of self-rated players so these numbers can be pretty rough and not complete depending on where a team is in their season.

Women 3.0

Southern / Kentucky / Lexington - 3.15
Midwest / Ohio / Dayton - 3.04
Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 3.01
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.01
Midwest / Western Michigan - 3.00

There are some strong "3.0" teams!

Women 3.5

Southern / Georgia / North Georgia - 3.50
Southern / Tennessee / Knoxville - 3.47
Southern / Georgia / EVTA - 3.46
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.45
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.45

More from the south.

Women 4.0

Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 3.97
Southern / Georgia / Columbus - 3.93
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.92
Florida / Region 5 / Sarasota - 3.92
Northern / Twin Cities - 3.91

Tough to make it out of Sarasota!

Women 4.5

Florida / Region 8 / Broward - 4.39
Southern / Tennessee / Memphis - 4.34
Caribbean / Puerto Rico - 4.34
Southern / Alabama / Mobile - 4.33
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.33

Closely grouped, and some variety, although mostly warm weather locales.

Women 5.0+

Southern / South Carolina / Hilton Head - 4.99
Florida / Region 2 / Duval - 4.85
Mid Atlantic / Washington D.C. - 4.78
Southern / North Carolina / Raleigh - 4.77
Pacific Northwest / Eastern Washington - 4.76

Finally, some variety, although Hilton Head looks like the cream of the crop although they have small perhaps incomplete roster at this point.

What do you think?

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 18+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 18 & over division?

This is the next in the series of "It's only April but let's handicap Nationals already!" posts and previews.

To do this handicapping, I use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the men's 18 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Men 2.5

Caribbean / Puerto Rico - 2.52
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.52
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.48
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.42
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 2.41

Yes folks, Birmingham seems to be a hot-bed for 2.5 tennis!  Seriously, 2.5 flights typically have a lot of self-rated players so these numbers can be pretty rough and not complete depending on where a team is in their season.

Men 3.0

Southern / South Carolina / Lexington - 3.01
Southwest / El Paso - 3.01
Southern / Alabama / Huntsville - 2.99
Pacific Northwest / Seattle - 2.97
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 2.97

Southern rules again.

Men 3.5

Northern California / MP - 3.51
Southern / North Carolina / Raleigh - 3.51
Southern / Georgia / COTA - 3.47
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.46
Florida / Region 7 / Collier - 3.46

There is a theme here with Southern showing up.

Men 4.0

Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 4.04
Southern / North Carolina / Lake Norman - 4.00
Southwest / Northern New Mexico - 4.00
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.99
Texas / Austin - 3.97

The theme continues.

Men 4.5

Florida / Region 3 / Hillsborough - 4.43
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.43
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.43
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 4.43
Texas / Austin - 4.42

No comment needed.

Men 5.0+

Northern California / SA - 5.00
Northern California / MA - 4.93
Northern California / LP - 4.92
Northern California / MP - 4.90
Northern California / SF - 4.89

Should we just give the title to NorCal now?

What do you think?

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the women's 40 & over division?

Yes, it is only April, but I'm previewing 2015 Nationals already.

This is the second in a series of posts that use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper to get to and perhaps win Nationals.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

In this post, I'll be looking at the women's 40 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Women 3.0

Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.05
Southern / Louisiana / Mandeville - 2.98
New England / So. CT / E CT - 2.97
Southern / North Carolina / Piedmont - 2.96
Northern Cal / DN - 2.95

Pretty close other than Alabama, and Southern represents well.

Women 3.5

Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.48
Southern / Tennessee / Knoxville - 3.45
Southern / Alabama / Birmingham - 3.45
Texas / Dallas - 3.45
Texas / Dallas - 3.44

Southern and Texas come on down!

Women 4.0

Southern / South Carolina / Hilton Head - 3.95
Southern Cal / Beach Cities - 3.95
Southern / South Carolina - Greenville - 3.94
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 3.94
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 3.93

Do women's 4.0 play anywhere other than Southern?

Women 4.5+

Florida / Region 4 / Orange - 4.51
Texas / Dallas - 4.42
Southern / Mississippi / Jackson - 4.42
Southern / Tennessee / Memphis - 4.42
Northern Cal / SA - 4.41

What do you think?

Friday, April 3, 2015

Handicapping 2015 USTA League 40+ Nationals - Who are the favorites to win it all in the men's 40 & over division?

I've used my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings to handicap and do previews for flights and sub-flights, but since it is now April, many sections have been playing for awhile or at least have their teams formed, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look across the nation to see which team's appear to be the favorites on paper.

To do this analysis, I'm using the current 2015 ratings I have for the members of each team and looking at the average for a team.  This type of analysis is not perfect by any means, larger rosters may have lower averages due to carrying more lower rated players, and self-rated players don't factor in at all.  Also, not every section may have fully started their leagues yet.  But this is a quick way to compare and I'll try to revisit this later in the year.

To start, I'll be looking at the men's 40 & over division and at each level, identify the areas the top-5 teams are from.

Men 3.0

Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 3.14
Florida / Region 1 / Leon - 3.04
Southern / South Carolina / Hilton Head - 3.01
Southern / Louisiana / Baton Rouge - 2.98
Southern Cal / San Gabriel Valley - 2.98

Yes, there are 3.0 teams with average ratings well over 3.0.  And it looks like making it out of the SoCal and Southern sections may be tough and the San Gabriel Valley team could be the big favorite.

Men 3.5

Southern / South Carolina / Beaufort - 3.48
Southern / Kentucky / Louisville - 3.48
Texas / Austin - 3.47
Northern Cal / South Bay - 3.47
Southern / Alabama / Anniston - 3.46

This looks a lot tighter, but Southern is well represented again.  But no teams are already above 3.5.

Men 4.0

Florida / Region 3 / Pinellas - 4.06
Southern / Georgia / Savannah - 4.01
Northern / Twin Cities - 4.01
Southern / North Carolina / Charlotte - 4.01
Southern / North Carolina / Lake Norman - 4.01

Also very tight, the top-5 all above 4.0, and Southern represented well again.

Men 4.5+

Florida / Region 4 / Orange - 4.52
Northern Cal / East Bay - 4.50
Northern Cal / Upper Peninsula - 4.49
Southern / Georgia / Atlanta - 4.48
Northern Cal / Lower Peninsula - 4.48

Also close, Northern Cal making its presence known.

What do you think?  I'll do women and the 18 & over division soon.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Another Senior that was able to appeal down and is now a ringer - Get this one on your team!

I wrote a few days ago about the rules that allow for players 60 & over to automatically appeal down if they get bumped up, but had been at the lower level for three consecutive years.  This can lead to situations like I cited where a player that is clearly above level, gets to play at a lower level.  They are in essence the perfect ringer.

Well, I found another one that was able to appeal down even farther.  The prior one I wrote about was able to appeal from a 4.4 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating down to be a 4.0, a 0.4 drop.  The one I found this evening was able to to appeal down a whopping 0.51, from 4.51 to be a 4.0.

Here is the chart so you can see the full effect.


This player had a great year going 33-5 and 8-1 in the playoffs, the one loss being a match tie-break.  They can clearly play at the 4.5 level and even arguably at 5.0, but due to the Senior appeal rule, get to be a 4.0 for 2015.

Now, to be fair, this player is only 7-4 in 2015, so perhaps age really does catch up with you and this rule is appropriate most of the time.  Getting to appeal down 0.51 is still a huge amount though.