Wednesday, December 7, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages by section for the 3.0 level - Interesting tennis league stats

Next up in the analysis of 2016 USTA League year-end bump ups is the 3.0 level.

Here are the 3.0 women bump percentages by section.

At the 3.0 level, there are a lot more bumps up than down, not a big surprise as players improve.  And for the 3.0 women Southern Cal and Southwest lead the way with around 19% of players bumped up, with Caribbean not far behind.  And no section had fewer than 10% bumped up.

Hawaii had virtually no bump downs, and no section had more than 5% bumped down.

Here are the bump percentages for the 3.0 men.

And we have a winner!  Hardly any 3.0 men were bumped down, and over 40% of Southern Cal 3.0 men were bumped up!  And these don't include self-rates, these are just players that were 2015 year-end 3.0Cs and improved this year to 3.5.  Nice weather encourages folks to play and improve, or there were a lot of sandbaggers in 2015 getting C ratings.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages by section for the 3.5 level - Interesting tennis league stats

The USTA published year-end ratings last week, and I took a first look at some bump percentages by section, now it is time to start looking at things by NTRP level.  First, the 3.5 level by section.

Here are the bump percentages for the 3.5 women by section.

We see that Southern Cal had the most bumps up, nearly 10% of 2015 year-end C rated 3.5 women being bumped up.  The Pacific Northwest and Texas are close behind with Southwest and Missouri Valley right around 7.5%.  At the other end of the spectrum, Hawaii was at just over 5% bumped up while Mid-Atlantic and Middle States were right around 6%.

No section had more bump downs than up, but Northern was the closest with over 5% of 3.5 women bumped down and on the other end of things, Southern Cal had under 3% bumped down.

And then the bump percentages for the 3.5 men by section.

The 3.5 men also saw the most bumps up in Southern Cal, nearly 14%.  This is a bit surprising given the section didn't even have their team make the semis at Nationals.  Texas finished second at Nationals and had over 12% bumped up, and no section had less than 7% bumped up.

Southern Cal, Florida, and Texas had the fewest bumps down at well under 2%.

Friday, December 2, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages, overall and by section - Interesting tennis league stats

It has been a couple days since the 2016 USTA year-end NTRP rating levels were published, so as the dust settles it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can learn.

This is the first in what is sure to be a series of posts looking at how many players were bumped up or down, slicing the data by section, level, and more.  For the purposes of this analysis, I'm looking at the changes for players that were 2015 and 2016 year-end computer rated.

First, overall, 87% of players stayed at the same level, with 4% bumped down and 9% bumped up.  Keep this in mind as we take a look at the data by section.

By comparison, last year at 2015 year-end, 8% were bumped up and 4.7% bumped down.  So not a radical change at all, a similar ratio of bump ups to downs, and similar numbers overall.

And here is the overall data by section.

The chart shows things were actually quite consistent from section to section.  There is the usual large number of bump ups in Caribbean, but nearly every other section is in the range of 7-10%.  Southern Cal, which did well at Nationals, is the highest after Caribbean, and then Texas and Pacific Northwest.  Southern is somewhat surprisingly fifth after being my Section of the Year, but with so many players in the section it would be hard to bump the entire section up!

Bump down were also quite consistent, being right around 4-5% in nearly every section.

The above includes both genders together.  What about if we look at them individually?

Here is the chart by section for women.

This is actually quite consistent with the overall stats.  Pacific Northwest is now second behind Caribbean, but you still have Southern Cal, Texas, Southern, and Southwest close behind.  Being a strong section traditionally, Northern Cal had a surprisingly large number of bump downs, the highest percentage of any section!

And here is the chart by section for the men.

As you might imagine, the men aren't wildly different.  Southern Cal actually beats out Caribbean for the highest bump percentage, and Hawaii leads the way for bump downs.

If you look at the same charts from 2015, there appears to be a lot less variation, the sections are a lot more consistent.  It appears the USTA did not see the need to make any mass adjustments, at the section level at least, which is a bit surprising given how a few sections continued to dominate at Nationals.

What do you think?  Were are the bump percentages what you expected?

If you are interested in knowing more about your specific rating, I'm still doing reports for 2016.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

What? No way! Why? Understanding your 2016 year-end NTRP rating

The 2016 USTA League year-end NTRP ratings are out, and many players received the year-end rating they were expecting.  But some individuals may still be surprised with where they ended up.

There are always some surprises for players.  Some may have been expecting to stay where they were but got bumped up or down, while others may have won a lot and were expected a bump up, or lost a lot and thought they'd be bumped down, and neither happened.

I will be doing some analysis to look at what happened and if there were any surprises or adjustments made by the USTA and reporting a variety of stats, but for those that want to understand why they were/weren't bumped up/down, they can always get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report that will help explain how it all works.  While my ratings aren't perfect, they usually can explain odd bumps or lack thereof.  Contact me for more information.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

2016 USTA NTRP year-end ratings are published!

The wait is over, the USTA has published the 2016 year-end NTRP Ratings.  At least some are now showing at 2016 year-end ratings.

USTA League players may now furiously go check their rating on TennisLink and see whether they were bumped up or not and begin figuring out what team(s) they can play on.

Stay tuned for more details as I look at the ratings and do my analysis.

Monday, November 28, 2016

BREAKING NEWS! 2016 year-end ratings may not be published today!

I wrote yesterday that folks should be ready for ratings to come out today as that is the traditional timing for them, but that I'd heard rumors of a possible delay.  I've now had several other sources seemingly confirm that, although the exact day is still not known.  I've heard everything from this Thursday, this Friday, and next week.

I now believe that while I'm sure the USTA will try to get the ratings out as soon as they can, it likely won't be today.  In the past, I recall a notice showing up on TennisLink indicating when they planned to publish and I do not see that yet, so either they don't know for sure or are choosing not to share and keep us in suspense.

I'll post more as I learn more as well as soon as I see any new ratings published.

Update: As of 10am PDT on 11/28, my LC informed captains that National plans to publish the ratings this Thursday 12/1.  She emphasized it is a planned date and could change and she does not know what time on Thursday.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Are you ready for 2016 USTA year-end NTRP ratings? Teams are forming now for 2017!

Thanksgiving has passed and that means we now anxiously await year-end NTRP ratings to be released by the USTA as they are traditionally published this week.

I would expect them to be released on Monday, but a few players from sections other than my own have told me they heard it will be later in the week.  I'd still expect them earlier than later though.

And this is important in many sections as teams may begin playing their 2017 season right away in January, so teams are forming now and recruiting is taking place.  In fact, in my area (Pacific Northwest, Northwest Washington) our team forms are due in one week, so even if ratings are out on Monday we don't even have a full week to make sure a team can be fielded, and those players bumped up or down may be in hot demand or have to find a new team to play with.

Stay tuned to this blog or the NTRP Ratings Facebook page as I'll announce as soon as I hear/see ratings are out and follow that up with a variety of analysis on the year-end ratings and what we can tell from them.