Tuesday, May 26, 2015

2015 40 & over 4.5+ women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.5+ women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the four teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
1 - HBSQ-Ferrin4.40
2 - BC-Strieb4.39
4 - MI-Stillman4.39
3 - AYTC-Ogborn4.28

Given the way the seeds fell, it looks like a 1 vs 2 final should happen and be very close.  But upsets happen.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 4.5+ men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.5+ men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the four teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
1 - STC-Rosen4.52
2 - EDG-Kelly4.48
1 - MI-Dawson4.44
2 - CAC/SL-Tinsley4.42

Interestingly, the top-2 teams play in one semi and the bottom-2 play in the other.  Will that first match effectively decide who wins?

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck gentlemen, may the best team win!

Monday, May 25, 2015

2015 40 & over 4.0 men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.0 men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the six teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
1 - PL-McGuire3.96
3 - PSC-Yasutake3.93
2 - BELL-Nolan3.90
4 - HBSQ-Harbor Squarrels-Little3.90
6 - BELL-Trott3.84
5 - BETC-Gutierrez3.83

This one also roughly matches the seeding, and it one of the closer set of teams top to bottom.

The first round matches look like they may follow the seeings, but then the semis could be very close with a 3 favored over a 2.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck gentlemen, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 4.0 women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 4.0 women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the six teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
1 - AYTC-Wilson4.00
3 - BETC-Haley3.94
2 - BELL-Anders3.93
5 - CP-Keogh3.86
4 - TCSP-Crites3.82
6 - MI-Jacoby3.77

This is about the closest to matching the seeding thus far with the top-3 seeds at the top and the lower 3 seeds at the bottom.  And there is some separation between the top-3 and bottom-3.

Since there are six teams, the top-2 seeds get byes so they get that advantage, and it looks like a 5 vs 4 upset could occur and then if form holds, the 2 vs 3 should be very close.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

Sunday, May 24, 2015

2015 40 & over 3.5 women USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.5 women.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the eight teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
4 - MI-Ko3.48
3 - CP-Goldberg/Stanford3.44
8 - PL-Buetow3.43
7 - CP-Buckingham3.40
6 - CAC/SL-Caponigro/Rockwell3.40
1 - HBSQ-Smalley3.38
5 - MC-Wyer3.33
2 - EDG-Kainz3.33

This is quite jumbled with the top two seeds rated 6th and 8th.  And with a full quarter finals, any team is going to have to win three rounds.

Right off, an 8 beating a 1 seems possible as does the 7 beating the 2.  The others look to follow form but the 3 vs 6 is close and happens to be the third time these two teams are meeting this year.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck ladies, may the best team win!

2015 40 & over 3.5 men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.5 men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the eight teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
2 - CP-Ho3.49
1 - BC-Bingham3.48
7 - BETC-Fain3.47
8 - STC-Ferry "Jack"3.45
5 - AYTC-Diaz3.45
4 - MI-Mattox3.43
3 - GC-Moore3.42
6 - EDG-Lin3.32

This group of teams is quite close, only one EDG a bit behind the others, so this should be very competitive.

There are some stuff first round match-ups with 1 vs 8 being just 0.03 apart and 2 vs 7 just 0.02 apart.  Two good teams will be out after the first round.  The others are close too, just the lower 4 rated teams.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck men, may the best team win!

Friday, May 22, 2015

2015 40 & over 3.0 men USTA Pacific Northwest Seattle area local playoffs preview

The regular season has ended for the 40 & over division in USTA League play in the Seattle area and local playoffs are coming up next weekend, May 29 thru 31.  This is the first of several previews I plan to write-up, this one taking a look at the 3.0 men.

In these previews, I'll be looking at the top-8 Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating average for each team as that should be a pretty good comparison between teams as you'd expect each team to field their best players.  This will avoid lower averages you'd see by averaging the entire roster if you had big rosters with some lower rated players pulling the average down.

So, here are the top-8 averages for the four teams headed to playoffs.  The playoff seed is before the team name.

TeamAverage
1- MC-Youngblut3.05
2 - STC-Left Shark-Owen3.00
1 - CP-Graves2.98
2 - AYTC-Welland2.79

Similar to the women's 3.0 preview, there is one team that looks out of place.  Welland finished in a 3-way tie for second in their sub-flight and won the tie-breaker so moved on.  Note that they have several self-rated players that don't have a full dynamic rating yet so were not included in the average and that likely accounts for them being lower.

This is a straight semis and final draw and MC and CP are the higher seeds as the sub-flight winners, but by these averages STC has an ever so slight edge over CP in their match.

But as always, average ratings for a team does not tell the whole story, who specifically plays and the match-ups and how each player plays on the given day goes a long way to determining who is going to win the team match.

Good luck men, may the best team win!