2009 Week 14 College Conference Rankings

With the end of the pre-bowl season, save the Army/Navy game, we can now take a look at how each conference fares.

The SEC is far and away the best conference this year with a nearly 5 point margin over #2 when looking at the average rating.  There is a group of 4 covered by just 1.4 ratings points behind them with the Pac-10 having a bunch of good teams and just one very bad one, while the Big-12 has several not so good teams pulling their average down.

The Big-Televen does manage to stay ahead of the non-BCS schools but clearly is not very strong this year and it is a bit of a travesty that they get two teams in the BCS.  For those looking for support of TCU over Boise State, there is over a 2.5 point margin between the Mountain West and the WAC.

The Sun-Belt appears to hardly deserve to be in the FBS/I-A with an average less than the low of the top 6 conferences (save WSU) and a high that is worse than the average of the top-6.  They do get to serve as the doormat teams for the SEC with 10 of their 32 FBS non-conference games being against the SEC, twice as many as any other conference.

Rank	Conference	Average	High	Low
Rank	Conference	Average	High	Low
1	SEC	78.163	92.097	63.260
2	Pac-10	73.585	82.448	54.866
3	Big-12	73.196	86.546	63.521
4	ACC	72.997	82.632	63.654
5	Big-East	72.227	81.404	62.433
6	Big-Televen	69.426	78.419	62.113
7	Mountain-West	66.873	85.388	52.433
8	Independent	65.728	71.945	55.161
9	WAC	64.282	81.842	51.100
10	C-USA	63.138	72.417	52.888
11	MAC	60.081	72.599	45.637
12	Sun-Belt	56.734	68.289	45.536

2009 Week 13 NFL Preview

The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games.  These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.

The computer went an ok 8-7-1 against the spread last week but a great 14-2 picking winners against Vegas' 13-3.  And it is already 1-0 this week having picked the Jets -3.  See full records by week here and if you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, locks, performance charts, and more, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.

Atlanta hosts Philadelphia as a 5.5 point underdog but the computer likes Atlanta by 2.5!  Something's got to give and perhaps there are injuries the computer can't take into account.

Arizona hosts Minnesota in what should be an entertaining game also as a 5.5 point underdog and this time the computer does like the same winner, but only by 0.4 points.  A lot will depend on if Wariner plays and also if the Cards can play at home like they play on the road.

Indianapolis hosts a surging Tennessee and Vegas is giving Tennessee more credit than the computer setting the line at 6 while the computer has it at 10.9.  Can the Titans continue their fine play and keep it close or perchance pull the upset?

Enjoy the games.

2009 Week 14 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 14 (games played thru 5-Dec).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

What an exciting finish to the pre-bowl season.  The computer had a fantastic week predicting (13-4 against the spread, see more below), several exciting games, and Nebraska nearly upset the BCS apple cart!

The computer predicted Alabama would win and they did and it extended their lead over #2 from less than a point to nearly 5.  They were the computer's #1 every week but one since week 3 and only a let down should result in them not taking the BCS championship.

What is a bit surprising is that at #2 we still find Florida ahead of #3 Texas.  But a deeper look reveals why this is.  First, the computer looks at the entire season and isn't overly swayed but what happened yesterday like the polls and voters are.  Second, Florida entered the week 1.24 ratings points ahead of Texas, was predicted to lose, and lost so they did what was predicted.  Now they did lose by 18 points more than was predicted so they do lose a healthy 1.64 ratings points which would have dropped them to #3 had Texas simply held serve.  But Texas didn't.  They too were favored to win and won so they did what was predicted, but they won by 10 fewer points than predicted so they too lose ratings points, in their case 1.1, and stay behind Florida.

It may not feel "right", but when the computer goes an outstanding 13-4 ATS, 13-4 picking winners, and Vegas goes only 9-8 picking winners, I'm not going to argue with the computer.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.  There will be special bowl game previews so subscribe now to get them!

Behind the top-3, TCU stays #4 but over a point behind Texas so their argument to pass Texas doesn't appear strong, and again somewhat surprisingly Virginia Tech moves up to #5.  They move up because prior opponent Alabama gained 2.6 ratings points and prior opponent Nebraska gained near a full ratings point.  They also have a win over East Carolina which upset Houston.

The bowl games get started in just under 2 weeks but the rankings will be updated after the FCS games next week although I don't expect any major changes.  Stay tuned!

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	92.097	13-0	72.186	+0, +2.605
2	Florida	87.278	12-1	71.251	+0, -1.638
3	Texas	86.546	13-0	69.481	+0, -1.129
4	TCU	85.388	12-0	64.953	+0, +0.088
5	Virginia Tech	82.632	9-3	72.768	+2, +0.605
6	Oregon	82.448	10-2	72.532	-1, -0.200
7	Boise St	81.842	13-0	62.435	-1, -0.413
8	Arkansas	81.780	7-5	72.907	+0, +0.391
9	Cincinnati	81.404	12-0	66.815	+0, +0.301
10	LSU	81.155	9-3	72.623	+0, +0.487
11	Oklahoma	80.289	7-5	70.471	+0, +0.119
12	Georgia Tech	79.947	11-2	72.553	+0, +0.634
13	Miami FL	79.227	9-3	71.731	+1, +0.343
14	Texas Tech	79.059	8-4	68.024	-1, +0.033
15	Oregon St	78.803	8-4	70.379	+0, +0.416
16	Stanford	78.483	8-4	70.665	+0, +0.115
17	Ohio State	78.419	10-2	66.263	+1, +0.458
18	Clemson	78.116	8-5	70.723	-1, -0.127
19	Nebraska	78.099	9-4	68.984	+4, +0.975
20	Mississippi	77.996	8-4	70.185	+0, +0.526
21	Tennessee	77.757	7-5	70.915	-2, +0.228
22	Pittsburgh	77.475	9-3	68.094	+0, +0.228
23	Auburn	77.454	7-5	73.055	+1, +0.548
24	Arizona	77.371	8-4	71.964	+2, +1.004
25	Penn State	76.995	10-2	64.370	+0, +0.466
26	Southern Cal	76.740	8-4	71.884	-5, -0.621
27	Oklahoma St	75.904	9-3	68.834	+1, -0.042
28	North Carolina	75.565	8-4	69.277	+1, +0.359
29	Iowa	75.558	10-2	67.828	+3, +0.637
30	Georgia	75.374	7-5	73.990	+0, +0.190
31	South Carolina	75.110	7-5	73.671	+2, +0.206
32	West Virginia	74.835	9-3	69.219	+4, +0.700
33	Connecticut	74.628	7-5	68.918	-2, -0.348
34	Kentucky	74.413	7-5	69.525	+3, +0.282
35	Brigham Young	74.315	10-2	66.155	-1, +0.082
36	Mississippi St	74.288	5-7	73.437	+2, +0.333
37	Utah	74.164	9-3	65.681	-2, +0.026
38	California	74.019	8-4	71.148	-11, -2.041
39	Central Michigan	72.599	11-2	60.988	+5, +0.806
40	Florida St	72.552	6-6	73.113	+0, +0.151
41	Missouri	72.466	8-4	68.858	+1, +0.194
42	Boston College	72.458	8-4	68.544	+1, +0.316
43	Houston	72.417	10-3	63.743	-4, -0.538
44	Washington	72.396	5-7	72.738	+10, +2.470
45	Texas A&M	72.327	6-6	69.813	-4, +0.051
46	Wisconsin	72.292	9-3	65.958	+4, +1.441
47	Notre Dame	71.945	6-6	69.915	-1, +0.307
48	Rutgers	71.559	8-4	61.945	-3, -0.156
49	Wake Forest	71.530	5-7	71.067	-2, +0.213
50	UCLA	71.372	6-6	72.525	-2, +0.098
51	Air Force	71.016	7-5	63.947	-2, +0.110
52	Nevada	70.770	8-4	64.494	-1, -0.077
53	South Florida	70.730	7-5	66.931	+0, +0.798
54	East Carolina	70.608	9-4	66.804	+1, +0.906
55	Navy	70.079	8-4	65.724	-3, +0.080
56	Michigan St	69.692	6-6	67.197	+1, +0.581
57	Arizona St	69.356	4-8	69.565	-1, +0.204
58	Fresno St	68.857	8-4	65.573	+0, -0.196
59	Kansas	68.636	5-7	69.637	+0, +0.199
60	Central Florida	68.289	8-4	64.906	+0, +0.110
60	Troy	68.289	9-3	62.206	+1, +0.124
62	Minnesota	67.897	6-6	69.632	+0, +0.295
63	Virginia	67.740	3-9	73.281	+2, +0.460
64	Southern Miss	67.686	7-5	62.417	-1, +0.189
65	Iowa St	67.519	6-6	66.726	-1, +0.234
66	Kansas St	67.434	6-6	67.550	+0, +0.193
67	Purdue	66.969	5-7	67.882	+3, +0.551
68	Temple	66.944	9-3	60.687	-1, +0.246
69	Northwestern	66.746	8-4	63.075	+4, +0.590
70	Baylor	66.549	4-8	71.089	-1, +0.093
71	Middle Tennessee St	66.474	9-3	59.746	+0, +0.135
72	Louisiana Tech	66.462	4-8	65.846	+2, +0.414
73	Duke	66.401	5-7	68.027	-1, +0.196
74	Ohio U.	66.338	9-4	62.348	-6, -0.202
75	North Carolina St	66.137	5-7	67.256	+0, +0.209
76	Bowling Green	65.829	7-5	63.886	+0, +0.176
77	Syracuse	64.751	4-8	68.592	+0, +0.254
78	Northern Illinois	64.619	7-5	58.884	+0, +0.308
79	Marshall	64.286	6-6	66.250	+0, +0.062
80	SMU	63.850	7-5	64.016	+0, +0.072
81	Maryland	63.654	2-10	70.538	+0, +0.054
82	Illinois	63.585	3-9	68.656	+1, +0.557
83	Colorado	63.521	3-9	70.235	-1, +0.238
84	Michigan	63.422	5-7	64.311	+2, +0.568
85	Alabama-Birmingham	63.270	5-7	65.704	-1, +0.251
86	Vanderbilt	63.260	2-10	71.563	-1, +0.285
87	Utah St	62.459	4-8	66.472	+0, -0.164
88	Louisville	62.433	4-8	68.241	+2, +0.190
89	Buffalo	62.359	5-7	62.504	+3, +0.200
90	Idaho	62.296	7-5	64.448	-1, +0.026
91	UNLV	62.265	5-7	66.277	+0, +0.040
92	Tulsa	62.189	5-7	63.220	+1, +0.126
93	Wyoming	62.166	6-6	67.453	+1, +0.181
94	Indiana	62.113	4-8	65.918	+1, +0.557
95	Hawaii	61.620	6-7	63.274	-7, -0.969
96	UTEP	61.399	4-8	63.193	+0, +0.055
97	San Diego St	60.632	4-8	65.064	+0, +0.104
98	Colorado St	59.480	3-9	66.714	+0, +0.136
99	Kent St	58.980	5-7	60.384	+0, +0.183
100	Western Michigan	58.271	5-7	60.618	+0, +0.291
101	Florida Atlantic	58.075	5-7	61.432	+0, +0.649
102	Louisiana-Monroe	57.549	6-6	60.981	+0, +0.160
103	Toledo	57.408	5-7	62.165	+0, +0.233
104	Memphis	56.753	2-10	66.377	+0, +0.158
105	Army	55.161	5-6	59.183	+1, +0.152
106	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.077	6-6	60.310	+1, +0.162
107	Arkansas St	54.992	4-8	58.674	-2, -0.163
108	Washington St	54.866	1-11	73.200	+0, +0.130
109	Ball St	54.600	2-10	62.245	+0, +0.143
110	Tulane	54.018	3-9	64.891	+1, +0.060
111	Akron	53.889	3-9	62.268	+1, +0.264
112	Miami OH	53.577	1-11	67.346	+1, +0.213
113	San Jose St	53.133	2-10	67.243	-3, -0.884
114	Rice	52.888	2-10	67.029	+0, +0.132
115	North Texas	52.621	2-10	60.515	+0, +0.123
116	New Mexico	52.433	1-11	67.842	+1, +0.098
117	Florida Int'l	51.996	3-9	64.413	-1, -0.401
118	New Mexico St	51.100	3-10	64.149	+0, +0.053
119	Eastern Michigan	45.637	0-12	63.368	+0, +0.249
120	Western Kentucky	45.536	0-12	61.315	+0, +0.496

Congratulations Alabama and Texas

I have to say the Alabama / Florida game was a bit of a let down, but how about the evening games?

Congrats go to Alabama for manhandling Florida and deservedly going to the BCS Championship game.  Congrats go to Texas too for winning as it will in all likelihood get them there too, but that was not impressive.  Yes Nebraska has a good defense, but to win by 1 on a last second FG against a 4 loss team?

As I'll post shortly when all the games are done, Florida will likely stay at #2 in my rankings.  Yes, they lost and lose ratings points and more than Texas loses in their narrow win, but they had enough of a lead going in that they still stay ahead.  What this means is my computer still thinks Florida is the second best team in the country.

I have to say it would have been a lot more fun had Nebraska won as then Alabama's opponent would be who?  Logically TCU would move up as Cincy certainly wasn't impressive enough to leap frog them, but who knows.

So, what does that mean for the BCS bowls?  Here is what I predict:

• BCS Championship - Alabama vs Texas
• Rose - Ohio State vs Oregon
• Sugar - Florida vs Cincinnati
• Fiesta - TCU vs Boise State
  
• Orange - Georgia Tech vs Iowa

Why that?  The Sugar gets first pick because they lost Alabama and will take Florida.  Fiesta gets the next pick since they lost Texas and takes TCU.  The Orange wants to draw fans and takes Iowa.  They could take Penn State and perhaps draw more fans but hard to take them since they lost to Iowa.  They could also take Cincinnati to get an unbeaten but doubt they will.  The Sugar gets next pick and takes Cincy leaving the Fiesta to complete their west/southwest undefeated matchup and what they can pitch as the "other" national championship.

I think Boise State gets it because there are no others that are worthy.  They aren't going to take the #2 from the Pac-10 (4 losses), Big-12 (3 losses), ACC (3 losses), or Big East (3 losses) and they can't take another SEC or Big-Televen team so Boise State is it.

Thoughts?

2009 Week 14 College Football Preview

Here is a preview of a few selected games for this week.  The computer already picked the Oregon/Oregon State game correct having Oregon by 7 and they won by 4.  Last weeks highlighted games went an ok 4-3 against the spread.  Here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

Arizona visits USC as a 7.5 point underdog but the computer has the margin at 4.  USC has been very up and down this year while Arizona has been more predictable although both are below 0.500 ATS.

Cincinnati tries to finish the season undefeated and is picked by 2 over Pittsburgh so it should be a close game and the computer agrees having Cincinnati by just 0.9.

Georgia Tech and Clemson meet for the ACC title both coming off of disappointing losses.  Vegas has it a pick'em game and the computer has Georgia Tech by 1.1.  It will come down to which team rebounds the best.

Nebraska enters the Big-12 championship as a 13.5 point dog but the computer has them losing by 10.6 to Texas.

And in the big game of the week, Alabama is now a 6 point underdog to Florida in a game the computer picks them to win by 0.6.  Alabama plus the points is definitely the pick here.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.
Enjoy the games.

Oregon vs Oregon State Analysis

So the Civil War has real meaning this year with the winner of Oregon vs Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl.  So how do the teams really match up?

Here are the performance charts for each team, then a further discussion below.

 

With the game being in Eugene, the computer is picking Oregon by 7.3 but the line is 10 so the pick ATS would be Oregon State.  But let's take a look at common opponents:

• Arizona - Oregon State lost by 5 at home early in the year and Oregon won by only 3 on the road just a week and a half ago.  Advantage Oregon.
  
• Arizona State - Oregon State won 28-17 on the road and Oregon won 44-21 at home in November.  Close to a push.
  
• California - Oregon won 42-3 at home and Oregon State won 31-14 on the road later in the year.  Small advantage to Oregon.
  
• Stanford - Oregon State won by 10 at home, Oregon lost by 9 on the road.  Advantage Oregon State.
  
• UCLA - Oregon won by 14 on the road and Oregon State by only 7 at home.  Advantage Oregon.
  
• USC - Oregon State lost by 6 on the road and Oregon walloped them by 27 at home.  Big advantage Oregon.
  
• Washington - Both had similar big wins over the Huskies, a push.
  
• Washington State - They both easily handled the Cougars, a push.
  

That gives a pretty easy advantage to Oregon.  But what about non-conference games?

Oregon lost at Boise State and eked out a win over Purdue at home and beat a good Utah team by 7 at home.  Oregon State played a few patsies in Portland State and UNLV but barely beat the latter, and then lost by 10 to Cincy.  Close to a push.

So, it would seem the computers pick of Oregon by 7 is probably close to correct, but Oregon is 7-4 ATS this year while Oregon State is 5-5.  Use that as you will.

It will be fun to watch!

2009 Week 12 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Week 12 of the NFL season is complete and there were remarkably few changes in the ratings.  The ratings are below but can always be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.

And there are still 2.  New Orleans wins easily and Indy has to forge a comeback and both stay undefeated and #1 and #2 in the rankings.  New England stays #3 as they were expected to lose by 6 and lost by 17 which dropped their rating nearly a point, but even with Minnesota improving their rating over a point they didn't quite bridge the gap.  Baltimore, San Diego, and Cincinnati all win and stay in their spots as well.

The computer did ok overall going 8-7-1 against the spread this week and beat Vegas going 14-2 straight up compared to 13-3.  And the best picks against the spread went a great 5-1.  Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	New Orleans	92.154	11-0	78.691	+0, +0.753
2	Indianapolis	89.790	11-0	81.598	+0, +0.223
3	New England	87.221	7-4	82.355	+0, -0.911
4	Minnesota	86.993	10-1	77.605	+0, +1.109
5	Baltimore	85.715	6-5	82.066	+0, +0.229
6	San Diego	84.943	8-3	79.647	+0, +0.245
7	Cincinnati	84.350	8-3	80.182	+0, -0.188
8	Pittsburgh	84.331	6-5	80.975	+1, +0.247
9	Dallas	83.895	8-3	78.528	+2, +0.101
10	Arizona	83.555	7-4	80.169	+0, -0.493
11	Denver	82.634	7-4	81.551	+7, +1.351
12	Houston	82.584	5-6	82.141	+0, -0.169
13	Philadelphia	82.317	6-5	79.472	-5, -1.876
14	Green Bay	81.982	7-4	78.106	+5, +0.748
15	Tennessee	81.917	5-6	82.975	+2, +0.320
16	San Francisco	81.916	5-6	81.099	+4, +1.029
17	NY Jets	81.892	5-6	81.774	-1, +0.003
18	Atlanta	81.806	6-5	81.478	-5, -0.889
19	Miami	80.860	5-6	82.985	-5, -1.723
20	NY Giants	80.590	6-5	81.471	-5, -1.490
21	Buffalo	78.624	4-7	81.330	+3, +1.564
22	Jacksonville	78.615	6-5	80.967	-1, -0.753
23	Carolina	78.265	4-7	81.979	-1, -0.747
24	Chicago	78.234	4-7	80.941	-1, -0.637
25	Seattle	77.335	4-7	80.385	+1, +0.671
26	Washington	77.238	4-7	78.879	+1, +1.624
27	Kansas City	75.828	3-8	81.269	-2, -0.869
28	Tampa Bay	74.622	1-10	82.268	+1, +0.456
29	Oakland	74.188	3-8	81.528	-1, -0.617
30	Cleveland	72.644	1-10	82.914	+1, +0.885
31	St Louis	72.279	1-10	81.276	-1, -0.505
32	Detroit	70.120	2-9	80.833	+0, +0.011