Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Simulating 2023/2024 USTA League Tri-Level National Invitational - 3.5/4.0/4.5 Women

This weekend is the 2023/2024 Tri-Level Invitational and this year I'm giving my simulations a go.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

As I did for Nationals in the Fall, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.  Doing Tri-Level is new for me so we'll see how this goes.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 3.5/4.0/4.5 Women after doing the Men a bit ago.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 9%
Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 81% / 4
Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, New England, Northern
Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, SoCal, Texas
Fringe: Intermountain, Florida, Southern

One team is a favorite over the others and the only team forecast to go 4-0, but 3-1 and perhaps even 2-2 could make the semis as it is competitive behind the big favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023/2024 USTA League Tri-Level National Invitational - 3.5/4.0/4.5 Men

This weekend is the 2023/2024 Tri-Level Invitational and this year I'm giving my simulations a go.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

As I did for Nationals in the Fall, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.  Doing Tri-Level is new for me so we'll see how this goes.

On to the projections from the simulation, starting with the 3.5/4.0/4.5 Men.

Note: This was updated an hour after originally posting with improvements to the simulation

Teams: 17
Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%
Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%
Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%
Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%
Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4
Favorites: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, SoCal, Southern
Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal
Fringe: Texas

This looks fairly competitive with five teams having a >50% of making the semis, and three more contending for a spot.  And no team has a most likely record of 4-0 and six having 3-1 records most likely.  With just three courts a match, the chances of tie-breakers going to sets and games is pretty high.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Monday, March 4, 2024

2023 Tri-Level Nationals is in San Diego this weekend!

USTA League Nationals are generally all held in October and November each year, but several of the Nationals events find themselves being played early in the year.  One of those is Tri-Level Nationals.

Technically, the event is called the Tom Fey Tri-Level Nat'l Invitational as for many years, it wasn't a USTA sponsored event but instead was run by Tom Fey, the Tennis Director at Indian Wells Tennis Garden for many years, and done as an Invitational.  Tom passed away far too soon a few years ago, and the event now bears his name, but now the USTA runs the it as a National Invitational.

The timing of the event remains the same, right around the time of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, but this year it is in San Diego.  Also, for many years the Invitational invited teams playing in the 3.5/4.0/4.5 division to play, but now the USTA holds the event for three different divisions for both genders, 3.0/3.5/4.0, 3.5/4.0/4.5, and 4.0/4.5/5.0.

The stature of the event has grown as a result with teams from all of the sections participating in at least one event.

  • Women's 3.0/3.5/4.0 has 14 teams (Hawaii, Intermountain, and Midwest missing)
  • Men's 3.0/3.5/4.0 has 14 teams (Hawaii, Caribbean, and Intermountain missing)
  • Women's 3.5/4.0/4.5 has 16 teams (Caribbean missing)
  • Men's 3.5/4.0/4.5 has the full 17 teams
  • Women's 4.0/4.5/5.0 has 9 teams
  • Men's 4.0/4.5/5.0 has 9 teams

That is a whopping 79 teams all playing over the weekend, which it appears necessitates some different scheduling to what we normally see for a Nationals.  Normally it is a Friday to Sunday event, but this weekend has:

  • 3.5/4.0/4.5 division being played 3/7 thru 3/9
  • 4.0/4.5/5.0 division being played 3/8 thru 3/10
  • 3.0/3.5/4.0 division being played 3/9 thru 3/11

Even with the staggered schedule, it is too big for one venue so the event is being co-hosted by Barnes Tennis Center and Balboa Tennis Club.

Given all the rain in California this year, a weather check is in order and the start of the event looks in a little danger as there are thunderstorms forecast for the 6th with hail possible and rain showers lingering into the morning of the 7th, but after that all looks fine with cloudy to partly cloudy skies the rest of the days.

Good luck to all the teams!

Saturday, January 13, 2024

2024 USTA League Nationals schedule is availalble - Only 4 weekends this year!

Calendar year 2024 is just getting started, and many sections have league play underway, but some areas had early start leagues and local league play is already over.  In both cases teams are progressing towards USTA League Nationals typically held in October and November.

For those teams aspiring to get to Nationals, knowing the schedule and locations can be useful and there is a PDF of the schedule here.

The summary is that there will be four sites for 2024:

  • Barnes Tennis Center in San Diego, CA
  • Scottsdale Ranch Park & Indian School Park in Scottsdale, AZ
  • Surprise Tennis and Racquet Complex in Surprise, AZ
  • USTA National Campus in Orlando, FL
A significant change is that Nationals don't start until mid-October, where they have typically started the first weekend of October, even starting late in September on occasion including last year.  This means just four weekends of Nationals compared with seven in 2023.  Here are the dates and events:
  • October 18-20
    • 18 & Over 2.5 women - Scottsdale
    • 18 & Over 5.0 - Scottsdale
    • 18 & Over 4.0 - Surprise
    • 18 & Over 3.0 - San Diego
    • 40 & Over 3.5 - Orlando
  • October 25-27
    • 18 & Over 3.5 - San Diego
    • 40 & Over 3.0 - Scottsdale
    • 40 & Over 4.0 - Orlando
    • 40 & Over 4.5 - Surprise
  • November 1-3
    • Mixed 18 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 / 10.0 - Surprise
    • Mixed 18 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Orlando
    • 55 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Scottsdale
  • November 8-10
    • 18 & Over 4.5 - Surprise
    • Mixed 40 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 - San Diego
    • Mixed 40 & Over 7.0 / 9.0 - Orlando
    • 55 & Over 6.0 / 8.0 - Scottsdale

We see that every location is used each week except for San Diego skipping the third weekend.  And we see events are much more compressed with four to seven events each weekend.  In 2023, there were just two to four most weekends.

This means that some players that would go to multiple Nationals will have a lot harder time doing it this year.  Someone can still go to 18 & Over and 40 & Over at the same level as there is no overlap there (but they are nearly all consecutive weekends), but the schedule for Mixed makes it nearly impossible for someone to go at two levels in the same age division.  For example, in 2023, if you were a 4.0, you could have played 7.0 and 8.0 Mixed at either 18 & Over or 40 & Over as they were on different weekends.  That is no longer possible.

The main 18 & Over and 40 & Over Adult divisions are typically first and that remains the case, but are compressed down into nearly just two weekends (18 & Over 4.5 oddly is now the last weekend) instead of the typical four to five weekends.

Why was this done?  I'm not sure, but can guess the following contributed:

  • USTA staff having to cover seven consecutive weekends of Nationals is a lot.
  • Surprise was used for six consecutive weekends last year and may have wanted a reduced commitment.
  • The USTA may have wanted to spread the Nationals experience around by reducing the ability for the same players to go to many events.
  • The USTA wanted Orlando used every weekend of Nationals and it is hard to do so early in October with the chance of hurricanes.
  • The USTA wanted to make it harder on me to get all my simulations and predictions done each weekend (just kidding).

Seriously, this will make it harder to follow along with many more events going on simultaneously.  I certainly will be busier if I try to pull of previews, simulations, and updates for all the events.

What do you think of this change?  Were Nationals too drawn out before and getting it all done in four weeks is better?  Or did you prefer the prior schedule?

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

It is 2024! What is going on with the 40 & Over format?

For my first post of 2024, I thought I'd take a look at how things are playing out with the court format in the 40 & Over division.

For those paying close attention or that read my post on the subject, you know that the National format for 40 & Over for 2024 is changing back to a 5-court format after several years of a 4-court format.  The 4-court format had some challenges, dealing with 2-2 ties for one, and was not very popular with many players, so the change back to 5-courts is welcome.

However, the change back did not just revert to the prior 2-singles / 3-doubles format, but instead is a 1-singles / 4-doubles format.  This is perhaps good for getting players matches, 9 line-up spots instead of 8, but doesn't address those wanting to play more singles.

Now, this change may not really be a change where you are.  Sections/districts/areas have always had the ability to run local leagues using alternate formats, and many do, and some planned to stick with 4-court or other formats for 2024.  It is still very early in 2024, but I thought I'd take an early look at what formats are being used.

Keep in mind that some leagues haven't started yet and I'm only looking at those that have started or at least have schedules up.  Also keep in mind that a given league may have multiple formats as sometimes lower or higher level flights will use a 3-court format to require fewer players.

With that said, as of today, there are 104 leagues that have flights continuing to use the 1-singles / 3-doubles format and just 42 that are using the National 1-singles / 4-doubles format.  There are even 9 choosing to use 2-singles / 3-doubles.  Still the 4-court format is far and away the most common.

And this isn't something where different sections have standardized on a format.  As of right now, only Eastern is using a single format (1-singles / 3- doubles) and there are others not using 1-singles / 4-doubles at all including Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, Northern California, Pacific Northwest, Southern California, and Southwest, but all other than Eastern are using multiple formats.

I think this is an indication that the change in the regulations to a 4-court format was done late enough that many areas had already planned on continuing the format from 2023, or facilities prefer to not dedicate as many courts to USTA play keeping more available for other use.

What this means to players and teams is that as you progress through the season and advance in playoffs, the format used may change.  Local playoffs will likely use what was used in local league play, but come Districts, States, or Sectionals, you may need to field a line-up requiring more players, and certainly those that go to Nationals will have to use the 1-singles / 4-doubles format.  Keep that in mind as you recruiting players and get them matches to be qualified for post-season play.

What are you seeing in your area?  What reason have you been given for the format being used?

Sunday, December 3, 2023

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Distribution of players across levels by gender

2023 year-end ratings were published a few days ago and I've started doing my stats with bump rates by section and gender, bump rates by level and gender, strange bumps, and player counts with year-end ratings.  Next up, distribution of players by level and gender.

This analysis looks at the players with year-end C ratings for 2023 and for comparison 2022.  The bar represents the number of players and the annotation is what percentage that number is of the total.

First up, players by level overall.

We see the standard "normal" distribution with just some small changes from last year.  There was some growth in raw numbers at lower levels, 2.5 thru 3.5, but the 4.0 and 4.5 levels shrunk slightly.  However, while there were more 3.5s in 2023, the percentage that are 3.5s went down slightly due to the significant growth of 3.0s.

Since we saw that generally speaking more players are bumped up than down, this is likely due to new players coming in at lower levels and getting year-end ratings while the higher levels perhaps have some players no longer playing USTA League.  I will have to do some analysis on this to see if that is the case.

Next, the distribution of women by level.

Similar story here, but the increased number of 3.0s was a bit larger and the 3.5s slightly less.

Last, the distribution of men by level.

The men had noticeably more 3.0s and 3.5s, but from a percentile distribution standpoint, over 1% fewer 4.0s and nearly 1% fewer 4.5s.

Stay tuned for more!







Friday, December 1, 2023

Analyzing 2023 USTA NTRP year-end ratings - Are the number of players with ratings going up or down?

Earlier this year, I wrote about the USTA's press release on tennis growth and in that post I introduced a new chart showing participation based on the number of players who receive year-end ratings.  Now that ratings are out, I can add 2023 to the mix.

Here is the chart showing the number of players with year-end ratings since 2012.

We see the metric has gone up slightly from 2022 (231K to 238K), it is still lower than all the other years from 2012 to 2021.

There are a number of possible reasons the number has gone up including:

  • We are still in the post-COVID recovery period where players continue to come back to league play
  • The COVID tennis boom we heard about from the TIA and USTA is finally resulting in some of those new players joining league play
  • Some sections with secondary leagues that didn't count for ratings in the past are now counting these leagues, so players that play in them are now getting year-end ratings.

The bulk of the increase from 2022 is with C rated players which are up around 6K on their own.

2024 will be interesting to see where we end up!