Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl Preview - Texas to win, Cal to cover

The Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl will take place on 12/28 pitting California against Texas. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

California is ranked #33 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 72.945 against a schedule strength of 69.202. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but finished strong, their worst game being at UCLA and best game being against Utah. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3 picking their games against the spread and 4-3 picking winners in their games.



Texas is ranked #24 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 75.652 against a schedule strength of 73.244. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were also up and down, their worst game being at Baylor and best game being at Iowa State. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UCLA and 3 degrees as follows:

2 California-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Arizona_St-->Missouri-->Texas
3 California-->Arizona_St-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Colorado-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Oregon_St-->Brigham_Young-->Texas
3 California-->Oregon_St-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Oregon-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Stanford-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Utah-->Brigham_Young-->Texas
3 California-->Utah-->UCLA-->Texas
3 California-->Washington_St-->UCLA-->Texas

Against UCLA, Texas won 49-20 on the road and Cal lost 31-14 on the road.


The spread is Texas by 4 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.California            +4.0 over *.                Texas  2.7  1.3 0.598 0.547

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.