Friday, April 26, 2013

Feedback on Estimated Dynamic NTRP Reports and Lists

It is great to get feedback from report customers and other folks that browse the lists I post.  I thought I'd share a few things that might be of interest to others.

First, I posted a complete list of ratings for players in Northwest Washington through April 1st, but I received questions about why some players weren't listed.  In most cases, it is because the player either hasn't played any matches since November 1, 2012, or because the player is self-rated and hasn't played enough matches yet to generate a dynamic rating.  The trick in this latter case is that if a self-rated player plays against another self-rated player, no match rating is generated and so it doesn't contribute to generating their first dynamic rating.

Second, my Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports are useful in many ways, from giving you a good idea what your current rating is, to seeing how your rating has changed and how each match affected your rating.  But for one individual I did a report for this week, the report pointed out a data entry error that was significantly affecting their rating.

Take a look at the chart below.

That first match looks way out of whack. While every player has good days and bad days, and match-ups against specific players or styles of play are better/worse for a given player, the highs and lows you typically see for a player aren't more than 0.5 apart. But this first match is a good 1.5 points below many of the other match results.

It turns out this first match wasn't played by the player I was generating the report for, his name had gotten entered by mistake. But my report clearly pointed this out and he is now working to get the match entered correctly in TennisLink.

Keep the feedback and questions coming. It is appreciated.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

What matches are strikes in USTA leagues?

I just had an inquiry from a player that had been DQd for generating 3 strikes.  She actually knew she'd been playing above level and had joined a higher level team already, but she had me use my Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings to guess which matches her strikes were.

Turns out, I was very close.  I identified a first match that was likely a strike, two others that definitely were, and a fourth that would be the third strike if the first one wasn't.

I was wrong on the first, but right on the next three.  This probably just means that what I'm guessing the threshold is for a strike for her level is wrong (the USTA seems to give a big margin for improvement at lower levels before generating strikes) so I'm pleased my estimated ratings are so close to being accurate.

If you think you might have strikes and want to know, an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Report is a great way to find out.  Contact me if you are interested.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

2013 NFL Pre-Season Projected Records

The NFL released the 2013 a few days ago, and with that, my computer can now project the records for each team.  Without further adieu, here is the list.

The columns below are the team, most likely record with the chance of that record, then the chance of a record one game better and one game worse.  Red teams are AFC and blue are NFC, and bold are the teams that would win their divisions.

Note that these projections are based on the end of year ratings from last year and do not reflect any ratings changes due to personnel or coaching changes.

You probably aren't surprised to see most of the teams at the top.  Denver and New England are expected to rule the AFC with Houston and Baltimore close behind.  What may be a bit of a surprise is the drop-off for the wildcards, with Cincinnati projected at 9-7 and Pittsburgh at 8-8.  Pittsburgh is projected to be tied with Indianapolis and San Diego at 8-8 but has the better chance of that record and 9-7 so they get the nod.

The NFC is probably more or less as expected too with the NFC West leading the way, Seattle getting the nod for the division based on every so slightly better chances at 11-5 and and 12-4.  Green Bay slots in at 10-6 as do the Giants and Atlanta.  The computer doesn't factor in injuries but it is interesting to see that Washington is a game back of the Giants at 9-7 but getting a wildcard over Chicago and Minnesota on better chance of 9-7 and 10-6.

For what its worth, the computer's pre-season projections last year correctly projected 3 of the AFC division winners and 3 of the NFC division winners as well.


TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England11-521.517.719.6
San Francisco11-521.016.619.9
Green Bay10-621.518.818.5
NY Giants10-620.215.819.8
San Diego8-820.720.016.3
St Louis8-820.717.119.2
Tampa Bay8-820.115.819.8
NY Jets7-920.315.720.2
New Orleans7-920.219.516.2
Kansas City4-1223.419.420.3

Monday, April 22, 2013

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for Northwest Washington USTA Leagues Posted

I have just posted my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for Northwest Washington here.  The ratings are through matches played 4/1/13 and should include all players that have played matches in the USTA adult/senior leagues in the Northwest Washington district of the Pacific Northwest section.

If you don't find your name listed and think you should be, please contact me.  And if you are interested in more detail on your rating and/or how it has changed since April 1st, I can generate detailed reports like the one below.

Comments and suggestions are welcome.

Example report.

Current NTRP: 3.0
Estimated DNTRP: 3.23
Match Record: 4-0
Sets Won-Lost: 8-0
Games Won-Lost: 48-23
Best Match Result: 3.68 on 2013-03-05
Worst Match Result: 3.22 on 2013-03-26
Highest Estimated DNTRP: 3.28 on 2013-03-05
Lowest Estimated DNTRP: 3.20 on 2013-03-19

Inline image 1

This report is an example of one for a player that it appears will be bumped up from 3.0 to 3.5 in the year-end ratings if they continue to play at the same level.