Monday, December 26, 2011

2011 Belk Bowl Preview - Louisville to cover and almost win outright

The Belk Bowl will take place on 12/27 pitting Louisville against North Carolina State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Louisville is ranked #55 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.608 against a schedule strength of 66.288. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent but steadily improved during the year, their worst game being against Florida Int'l and best game being at South Florida. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 1-7 picking winners in their games.



North Carolina State is ranked #54 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.754 against a schedule strength of 64.680. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, particularly late, their worst game being at Cincinnati and best game being against Clemson. They are 3-3-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-4-1 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Cincinnati and North Carolina as follows:

2 Louisville-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
2 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Connecticut-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Kentucky-->Central_Michigan-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Clemson-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Georgia_Tech-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Virginia-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->North_Carolina-->Wake_Forest-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Pittsburgh-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Rutgers-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Rutgers-->North_Carolina-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->South_Florida-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Syracuse-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->West_Virginia-->Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St
3 Louisville-->West_Virginia-->Maryland-->North_Carolina_St

Against Cincinnati, NC State lost 44-14 on the road and Louisville lost 25-16 on the road.  Against North Carolina, NC State won 13-0 at home and Louisville lost 14-7 on the road.


The spread is NC State by 3 and the computer barely agrees picking them by just 0.2.  Given Louisville's strong finish Louisville plus the points seems like a good pick.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:


.Louisville +3.0 over *. North Carolina State 0.2 2.8 0.510 0.630

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.