Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 New Era Pinstripe Bowl Preview - Iowa State in the upset

The New Era Pinstripe Bowl will take place on 12/30 pitting Rutgers against Iowa State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Rutgers is ranked #51 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 70.144 against a schedule strength of 64.055. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, more so at the end of the year, their worst game being at Connecticut and best game being against Pittsburgh. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 4-4 picking winners in their games.



Iowa State is ranked #48 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 70.389 against a schedule strength of 74.381. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were ok, then struggled, then were way up but down too, their worst game being against Texas and best game being against Oklahoma State. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UConn and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Rutgers-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Cincinnati-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Louisville-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Pittsburgh-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Pittsburgh-->Iowa-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->South_Florida-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->Syracuse-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St
3 Rutgers-->West_Virginia-->Connecticut-->Iowa_St

Against UConn, Iowa State won 24-20 on the road and Rutgers lost 40-22 on the road.


The spread is Rutgers by 2 and the computer disagrees picking the upset by 0.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Iowa State +2.0 over . Rutgers 0.2 2.2 0.511 0.596

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.