Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for Washington D.C.

I posted a list of ratings for Tulsa earlier today, and I've now posted a list for Washington D.C.  Have a look.

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings for Tulsa in the Missouri Valley Section of the USTA posted

I have added to the areas I've posted Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings lists for and it now includes Tulsa.

Other areas I'd previously posted lists for include Houston, Northwest Washington, and Southwest Washington.  I plan to add more lists soon, so please leave a comment to let me know which you'd like to see.

Monday, July 22, 2013

Another Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Team Report Customer Advances in Playoffs

Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Team Reports are a great way to get a deeper understanding of not only your team's strengths and stats, but also an opponent's when preparing to play them in the playoffs.  I've generated these reports for team captains that are just interested in their own team, but also a number that were headed to playoffs and wanted the details to help them plan line-ups.

I'm pleased to say that another customer of these reports has advanced in the playoffs, winning their District.  They were playing the best 2 out of 3 team matches head to head against the team from the other Area in their District and came out on top 2-1.

After winning the first team match, the team got more players involved and lost the second, but using the reports ran out their best line-up in the third and deciding match and won 4-1.  Here is how the ratings predicted the final match:

  • 1 Singles - A 2.96 beat a 2.73 6-3,6-3
  • 2 Singles - A 2.87 beat a 2.78 5-7,7-6,1-0
  • 1 Doubles - A 2.65/2.90 lost to a 2.75/2.90 5-7,6-3,1-0
  • 2 Doubles - A 2.88/2.81 beat a 2.82/2.61 6-1,4-6,1-0
  • 3 Doubles - A 2.74/2.73 beat a 2.95/2.62 7-5,6-3
My ratings picked the right winner in all the matches but court 3 doubles, and that was one where there was a big disparity on the losing team which can be exploited if the other team can just avoid the stronger player, so not a surprise that is where the "upset" was.

This team is now on to Sectionals.  Good luck!

Monday, July 15, 2013

Texas Early Start Ratings Are Available

The Pacific Northwest section early start ratings came out a week ago and Texas is another section that has early start ratings and they came out today.

I'll be doing some analysis so look for that in the next few days.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

We need a better way to follow USTA tournaments and playoffs

My team is fortunate to have made our local playoffs this weekend and have a bye into the semis today.  Our opponent was determined by a match played last night, but short of having driven 45 minutes to watch the match at 5:30 yesterday evening, the only way to find out the result is to check on TennisLink and hope the result gets posted.

And there is the issue.  I have to "hope" it gets posted in a timely fashion.  Unfortunately, it hasn't been yet at 8:00 AM the next morning, and this isn't uncommon from my experience with other USTA playoffs and tournaments.

I've suggested before, even contacting league coordinators directly, that there needs to be a better way to communicate results and other status from an event, but to my knowledge, nothing has changed.  In this world of social media, why can't one person at an event be designated to just tweet a few updates so participants and fans can easily follow what is going on and be able to show up to play or see a match at the right time?

If you agree, please let your league or section coordinator know and lets try to get this addressed.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

2014 Pacific Northwest Early Start Ratings are out, how accurate are the Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings?

As I wrote about yesterday, in the Pacific Northwest Section of the USTA, we have Early Start Ratings and as expected they came out yesterday.  The can be found here.

With their release, it provides an opportunity to check my Estimated Dynamic NTRP Ratings as they should mirror and predict the bump ups/downs fairly closely.

I'm working on a more comprehensive analysis, but I did some spot checks based on feedback and questions from a few folks that had gotten individual or team reports in the past.

For one team I did a team report for, I predicted that 4 players were in line to be bumped up from 3.5 to 4.0 and indeed they were.  However, the team also had 3 more players that got bumped up that I didn't predict.  Looking closer, these 3 were the next 3 highest rated in my report and I had each one above 3.5 a few matches earlier and they'd dipped just below in their last match or two.  So certainly very close on these 3 "misses".

Another person I've done several individual reports for wrote me to let me know that he and a teammate had been moved up, but two others who had thought they might be weren't.  For these 4, my estimated were spot on agreeing with both bump ups and also agreeing the 2 that weren't shouldn't have been.

Then there was also another 2 that thought they'd be bumped down and were and I predicted these too.

Last, a friend had been getting periodic updates and expected to be bumped down and was and I predict this one correct.

For this sampling then, my ratings went 11 for 14 on predicting the bumps.  And the three that missed did so by just a few hundredths so not far off at all.

Stay tuned for more.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

2013 Early Start Ratings for 2014 Early Start Leagues for the Pacific Northwest

At this time of year in the Pacific Northwest, USTA League players look forward to the Early Start Ratings coming out.  I've been told by one of the mixed doubles coordinators that they should be out in early July so it could be any day now.

What are Early Start Ratings?  Basically, they are ratings that are used to determine the level players should play at for Early Start Leagues.  What is an Early Start League?  It is a league that starts play before the USTA year begins (normal year is roughly November thru October).

The idea is that if a league starts play before year-end ratings are out, for example a 2014 mixed doubles league that starts in September, players that are well on their way to being bumped up or bumped down at year end should play in the Early Start League using their new rating instead of their old rating.  The Early Start Rating is basically a snapshot of the Dynamic Rating at a point in time.

How about an example.

Say a player is a 3.5 in 2012 year-end ratings and has had a great 2013 adult league season and improved their Dynamic Rating to 3.7.  This is well into the range for a 4.0 and indicates they are likely to be bumped up at the end of the year.  Because the 2014 mixed and senior leagues start play before 2013 year-end ratings come out, it wouldn't be fair to let this player enter those leagues and play well into 2014 as a 3.5.  So, because their Dynamic Rating at the time Early Start Ratings come out is 3.7, they are given an Early Start Rating of 4.0 and must play 2014 mixed and senior leagues as a 4.0.

Correspondingly, a player may have their rating go down and receive an Early Start Rating down a level and be permitted to play the Early Start Leagues at that level.

Note that an Early Start Rating does not guarantee that a player will stay bumped up or down in the year-end ratings.  Year-end ratings will include additional matches played after Early Start Ratings come out and also incorporate benchmark calculations which can move a rating up or down.

So stay tuned for the ratings to come out.  And if you want to know before or after why your rating ended up where it is, an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Report is a great way to find out.  Contact me to learn more.

Update: I just found out that the early start ratings should be out this evening (7/2) and will include matches played through 6/25.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Northwest Washington 40 & over playoffs in less than two weeks

In the Northwest Washington District of the Pacific Northwest Section of the USTA, we have local playoffs for most flights to determine the team to advance to Sectionals.  The 18 & over league had their playoffs last month, and the 40 & over league playoffs are coming up July 11-14.

If you are on a team headed to local playoffs, an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Team Report can be a useful way to assess the members of your team and a great way to scout the opposition.  Or if you just want more details on yourself or a specific player, individual reports provide all the match by match details of how a player's rating has changed throughout the year.

Contact me if interested in either.