Monday, September 26, 2011

NFL projected records after week 3

Three games in, the projected playoff picture is becoming a bit clearer.  See the full list of projections here.

In the NFC Green Bay is projected to go 15-1 and lead the entire NFL.  They would be favored in all their games, but with 13 to go the cumulative chance that they lose 1 is still higher than winning them all.  The other NFC playoff teams would be New Orleans, Dallas, and San Francisco, with wildcards Detroit and Washington.  Interestingly the computer is projecting that it will take an 11-5 record to make the playoffs.

In the AFC, New England still leads the way but at just 13-3 now.  The other division winners are projected to be Houston, Oakland, and Baltimore, with wildcards Buffalo and Tennessee.  Again, an 11-5 record is required to make the playoffs.

Week 3 NFL Ratings Posted - Green Bay new #1

The NFL ratings after week 3 are now posted here.

Green Bay is the new #1 but the Patriots are still close behind at #2 and another 1-loss team in New Orleans is #3.  The unbeaten surprises, Detroit and Buffalo are at #4 and #5 with a bunch of 1-loss teams right behind.  Chicago is the best 2-loss team at #12.

At the bottom of the list, Seattle climbs out of the cellar to #30 ahead of the Colts and new cellar dweller St. Louis.

The computer is still adjusting and went 7-9 against the spread, but went a nice 10-6 picking winners compared to Vegas' 9-7.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

College Football Performance Charts - Week 4

I've been creating performance charts that show specifics about how each team has performed and give a little insight into how the rating is arrived at.

Below you can see:

  • The points each team has received for each game (green and red dots), the size of the dot showing how meaningful the game was.
  • The opponents current rating (yellow diamond)
  • The rating by week (dark blue line)
  • The schedule strength by week (light blue line)

Let me know if you have any questions!

Preliminary Week 3 Season Projections

Last week I posted preliminary ratings and rankings before Monday night's game.  This week I'm posting preliminary projected records for the regular season.

NFC playoff teams are in blue, division winners in bold, AFC playoff teams in red.

As of now, surprises Buffalo and Detroit would be in the playoffs both as wildcards.  The NFC division winners would be no surprise, but the 49ers being 11-5 is likely a surprise.  The AFC division winners are also no real surprise except perhaps Oakland at 11-5.

The full projections will be posted tomorrow night.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Green Bay15-138.518.729.2
New Orleans14-238.019.828.5
New England13-332.024.123.1
San Francisco11-527.320.622.6
NY Jets10-624.621.119.8
Tampa Bay7-929.320.125.3
San Diego7-926.518.324.8
NY Giants7-926.420.721.9
Kansas City4-1224.520.720.1
St Louis2-1430.125.020.3

College Football Week 4 Season Projections

And now there are 4 teams projected to finish the season undefeated.

Florida International falls out after their loss, but so does LSU as their future opponents now look stronger, specifically Alabama, which is now projected to finish unblemished.  Boise State now has the best chance, followed by newcomer South Florida.  Oklahoma State also has a good chance now.

There are 7 teams projected with 1-loss now including LSU who has the best chance of the group of being undefeated, but also Stanford, Michigan, and Wisconsin all having a better than 28% chance of being undefeated.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St12-
South Florida12-
Oklahoma St12-
Virginia Tech11-136.713.332.5
Georgia Tech11-133.314.631.2

College Football Week 4 Schedule Strengths

Four weeks into the college football season, we can begin to see how teams' schedules compare.  At this point, it is heavily influenced by out of conference schedules and teams in tough conferences may not show up with a difficult schedule yet but will in the end.

Here are the full week 4 ratings, but sorted by schedule strength.

As if often the case, teams with losing records show up at the top as they've played tough teams and lost,  but we see Notre Dame as having played the toughest schedule thus far of any non-losing team, but close behind Oklahoma State, LSU, and Oklahoma being undefeated teams that have played tough schedules.  This is why they are ranked #6, #1, and #7 in the rankings.  Boise State has also played the #12 schedule thus far which is needed for them as their conference schedule will drag them down some.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are a bunch of undefeated teams that have played very weak schedules.  This includes top-25 teams Florida (#105), Wisconsin (#100), Baylor (#95), South Florida (#92), Georgia Tech (#88), and Virginia Tech (#81).  This isn't saying these teams aren't good, my computer has them all in the top-27, but they haven't been consistently tested yet.

3Florida Atlantic54.0320-376.954
4Notre Dame79.5152-276.857
6Oklahoma St86.7754-072.678
10North Texas53.4281-371.342
12Boise St86.8213-070.919
15Kent St55.8101-370.698
17San Jose St61.4281-370.080
21Brigham Young67.0612-269.713
23Mississippi St70.3792-269.337
24South Carolina78.8084-068.660
25Penn State77.6523-168.580
26Iowa St70.4023-068.191
27Middle Tennessee St60.0290-368.176
28Miami FL70.1001-267.918
29Oregon St59.5100-367.875
32Texas A&M82.1162-167.478
33Southern Cal72.6853-167.426
34Arizona St80.0203-167.359
38Miami OH56.0680-366.633
39East Carolina60.5141-266.618
43West Virginia74.8063-166.073
44San Diego St71.9843-165.914
49North Carolina72.0623-165.242
50Fresno St64.1052-265.197
51Northern Illinois68.0392-265.018
55Arkansas St66.2922-264.604
59Louisiana Tech63.6121-364.087
60Central Michigan53.4831-364.039
62Western Michigan70.3672-263.785
63Ball St65.1163-163.773
71New Mexico50.5550-463.113
76New Mexico St55.6311-361.888
78Florida Int'l68.1393-161.804
81Virginia Tech77.8924-061.477
83Western Kentucky46.5160-361.428
84Utah St63.7861-261.397
85Eastern Michigan56.0762-261.349
86Florida St74.0982-261.146
88Georgia Tech78.3894-060.689
92South Florida82.4184-060.233
93Boston College59.3121-360.194
94Ohio State68.4823-160.176
98North Carolina St62.4682-259.214
99Michigan St71.3923-159.166
104Washington St67.0272-158.270
106Kansas St71.0033-058.096
107Southern Miss64.5733-157.880
108Ohio U.69.2703-157.528
109Texas Tech71.0623-057.462
110Air Force68.5232-157.396
112Central Florida67.4592-256.997
117Wake Forest62.7892-155.234
118Bowling Green66.1653-153.592
119Colorado St56.7763-153.525

College Football Week 4 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  Things are becoming clearer after most teams have played 4 games and some of the usual suspects are back where we expect them to be.

LSU remains #1 after an impressive win over West Virginia but Alabama makes the big move improving over 5 points and moving to #2 after their thumping of Arkansas, passing idle and now #3 Stanford.  Oregon benefits from LSU appearing to be so good as well as drubbing Arizona and moves up to #4, fractionally ahead of Boise State and also just ahead of Oklahoma State.

Michigan makes the huge move of the week, moving up over 7 points and 19 spots to #9.  Even early in the year this is a big move and is done because:

  • They beat formerly undefeated San Diego State by 21.
  • Earlier opponent Western Michigan (24 point win) lost by only 3 at Illinois.
  • Earlier opponent Notre Dame won on the road.
We'll see if Michigan can make this stick as they have weaker opponents the next few weeks and will need to continue to win comfortably.

The computer went 24-23 against the spread, so not great, but went a sparkling 5-0 in the highlighted games:

  • Picked LSU by 9 giving the points and they won by 26.
  • Picked Alabama by over 14 giving the points and they won by 24.
  • Picked Clemson by 5 giving the points and they won by 5.
  • Picked Arizona State by 3.5 giving the points and they won by 21.
  • Picked Oklahoma State by 2.6 in the upset and they won by 1.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

1LSU93.1174-072.331+0, +2.875
2Alabama91.7094-063.613+2, +5.107
3Stanford88.0163-065.841-1, +0.557
4Oregon86.8633-171.194+4, +2.747
5Boise St86.8213-070.919-2, +0.050
6Oklahoma St86.7754-072.678+0, +1.077
7Oklahoma84.7993-071.959-2, -1.624
8Wisconsin84.3844-059.147-1, -1.294
9Michigan82.4224-066.486+19, +7.162
10South Florida82.4184-060.233+4, +4.870
11Texas A&M82.1162-167.478-1, +2.005
12Florida80.5054-058.186+6, +3.317
13Nebraska80.0594-063.641+4, +2.770
14Arizona St80.0203-167.359+6, +3.273
15Notre Dame79.5152-276.857+10, +3.769
16TCU78.8603-163.225-7, -2.299
17South Carolina78.8084-068.660-4, +1.058
18Georgia Tech78.3894-060.689-3, +0.903
19Virginia Tech77.8924-061.477-3, +0.551
20Penn State77.6523-168.580+22, +6.215
21Utah76.5902-169.940-2, -0.234
22Illinois76.4974-063.754+2, +0.606
23Tennessee76.3642-167.875+12, +2.845
24Clemson76.0354-064.411-12, -2.229

NFL Week 3 Preview

After two weeks, there is some of what was likely expected (Patriots, Packers, Jets 2-0), and some perhaps not (Buffalo, Detroit, Houston all 2-0, Vikings and Colts 0-2), so week 3 will be interesting to see if these trends continue.  Here is a preview of some of the interesting games, see full picks here.

One NFC North matchup has Detroit visiting Minnesota with two of the surprises on opposite ends of the spectrum.  Despite being in Minnesota the computer likes Detroit to win and by more than the 3 point spread.  Detroit has a chance to prove their start isn't a fluke.

The other NFC North matchup is also key as Chicago visits Green Bay trying to avoid getting 2 games back after 3.  While the computer likes Green Bay (#2 overall) and likes them to win even on the road, it expects the game to be very close so take the Bears plus the points.

Buffalo and New England meet to see if Buffalo's start can be maintained.  Buffalo isn't getting any respect being as much as a 9 point dog at home early, and the computer says even at the current 8 points it is too much as it expects the Patriots to win by about 5.  Given how the Patriots are playing that may be a hard pick to make though.

In an interesting inter conference matchup, Houston visits New Orleans.  The computer rates these teams virtually the same so being at home gives New Orleans the edge, and they certainly don't want to fall to 1-2, but the computer says it won't be by the 4.5 or so, so take Houston plus the points.

Last, in a game that had a surprisingly low early line at 3.5, Baltimore visits St. Louis.  The computer likes Baltimore, having them at #4, given their big win over the Steelers even though they lost at Tennessee, and doesn't like St. Louis at all having them #31, so expects Baltimore to win easy.  Take the Ravens and give the points.


Saturday, September 24, 2011

College Football Week 4 Preview

This weeks predictions are up, but here is some commentary on a few of the key games.

In one top-20 showdown, both #1 LSU and #11 West Virginia have shown marked improvement this year but LSU has shown the most and is the pick to win by more than a touchdown even on the road.  With that pick, the computer is taking LSU and giving the points.

In another top-20 (polls) game, #4 Alabama and #29 Arkansas play in Alabama.  Couple Arkansas not looking that great in a only 10 point win over an 0-2 Troy with Alabama being at home and playing well and the computer likes Alabama by more than 2 touchdowns which is more than the 11.5 or so points.  Again, take the favorite and give the points.

Another top-25 (polls) game has #22 Florida State visiting #12 Clemson.  Both teams have improved this year but the computer likes Clemson especially being at home by nearly 5.  Again, take the favorite and give the 2 points.

Being on the west coast I have to include a Pac-12 game and #23 USC visits #20 Arizona State.  Both teams are about where they started the season and again the computer likes the favorite by more than the 2.5 line.

And in the only game between teams in the top-10 of the polls, #6 Oklahoma State visits #10 Texas A&M.  Both teams have shown improvement this year and despite the game being in College Station, the computer likes Oklahoma State to win as an underdog.

Enjoy the games.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Week 2 NFL Ratings Posted - New England Remains #1

The NFL ratings after week 2 are now posted here.

New England stays #1 but with Baltimore's loss, Green Bay moves to #2 with the Jets also passing the Ravens for #3.  Detroit and Houston continue their hot starts at #5 and #6 and New Orleans recovers after week 1 moving to #7.

Continuing last weeks trend, Seattle takes over the bottom spot and by nearly 2 points behind St. Louis.

As usually happens, the computer didn't do as well in week 2 going 6-8-2 against the spread and 9-7 picking winners versus 13-3 for Vegas.

Preliminary week 2 NFL ratings and rankings

Each NFL week is a bit frustrating from a rankings standpoint as there is a slew of games on Sunday, one Sunday night, and then we have to wait 24 hours for the week to complete and I can product the weekly ratings and rankings from my computer.  So I compute preliminary ratings to see what has changed and thought I'd share those this week.

So with one game yet to play, here are how things look.

The Patriots stay #1 over now #2 Green Bay and #3 Jets.  Baltimore drops a bunch of points but just 2 spots to #4 and Detroit continues to surprise moving to #5 followed by another surprise in Houston.  New Orleans is the big mover of the week righting the ship at the expense of Chicago just behind them.

Seattle brings up the rear nearly 3 points behind disappointing Kansas City.  The Monday night game is not stellar on paper, #27 vs #30, but should hopefully be competitive, but one of the teams will come out 0-2 and also take on the disappointing moniker.

Also, preliminary week 2 season projections appear below.  No real surprise with New England, Baltimore, and Green Bay at 12-4 or better, but see Houston now also projected to finish 12-4.  In the NFC the West winner may not have a losing record this year, and the wildcards could both come from the North.  The AFC West winner could match the NFC at just 8-8 though with the South and East potentially getting the wildcards.

Presently, in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes race, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Seattle are in a dead heat.  Seattle clearly needs him and Carolina already has their QB, but would Indianapolis take him if they had the pick?  If Peyton is nearing the end, could be a fortuitous set of events and QB succession for the Colts.

After the game tonight, the full week 2 ratings and rankings as well as projections will be posted.  And be sure to follow @computerratings on Twitter.

1New England92.0912-080.534+0, +0.637
2Green Bay88.9142-079.815+1, -0.573
3NY Jets87.7312-078.451+2, +1.899
4Baltimore87.2251-182.207-2, -3.769
5Detroit87.1712-076.359+2, +2.605
6Houston86.9012-075.754+2, +2.806
7New Orleans86.7221-187.321+5, +4.079
8Chicago85.7271-183.850-4, -2.310
9Buffalo84.3212-077.052+2, +1.207
10Philadelphia84.1871-179.898-4, -1.302
11Dallas84.0531-186.568+4, +2.386
12Tennessee83.8251-183.038+9, +4.364
13San Diego82.6161-184.712-3, -0.682
14Cincinnati82.2011-179.675+0, +0.097
15Washington81.7852-073.640-2, -0.480
16Oakland81.7521-183.335+2, +1.476
17Atlanta80.9791-184.957-1, -0.669
18Pittsburgh80.5891-178.566-9, -2.791
19Tampa Bay80.3661-182.252+3, +0.934
20San Francisco79.4051-173.980+0, -0.316
21Jacksonville78.8501-185.778+2, -0.131
22Miami78.4530-286.496-5, -1.912
23Minnesota77.3330-281.491-4, -2.456
24Cleveland77.0001-177.628+2, +0.243
25Arizona76.9571-177.346+5, +3.392
26Denver76.3491-178.977+3, +2.399
27NY Giants76.3220-184.785-3, -2.569
28Indianapolis73.0550-281.950-3, -4.947
29Carolina72.9070-282.936+3, +2.242
30St Louis72.8170-181.187-2, -1.907
31Kansas City72.3520-285.746-4, -3.227
32Seattle69.9070-282.997-1, -3.416

Preliminary week 2 season projections:

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England13-324.417.123.2
Green Bay12-424.222.817.9
New Orleans11-524.221.918.8
NY Jets11-523.118.820.4
San Francisco8-822.818.820.1
Tampa Bay8-822.016.221.8
San Diego8-821.920.916.9
NY Giants5-1122.321.017.3
Kansas City4-1224.118.522.2
St Louis4-1223.621.518.2

Sunday, September 18, 2011

College Football Week 3 Season Projections

With three games under most teams belts, the computer can now make more accurate projections for the season and there are some interesting projected records.  See the full list here.

In something of a surprise, Florida International is projected to finish the season undefeated after their win over Central Florida.  LSU and Boise State are also projected to complete perfect regular seasons.  There are 7 teams behind these 3 projected to lose just once, and 5 of those have a better than 27% chance of going undefeated so anything could happen.  Note that #1 in the polls Oklahoma is not one of them with just a 14.9% chance of going undefeated.

Why is Florida International projected to go undefeated when they are ranked only #39?  Simply put, a very weak schedule.  Of their 9 remaining opponents, only one, Louisiana-Lafayette at 2-1, doesn't have a losing record and the highest ranked team on their schedule is 0-2 Troy at #72.  They've already played their 2 toughest opponents in #44 Central Florida and #61 Louisville.  If they pull it off, I don't think anyone will be lobbying to get into the BCS.

The projected undefeated and 1-loss teams below, the full list on the web-site.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Florida Int'l 12-0 70.1 0.0 27.6
Boise St 12-0 65.2 0.0 29.4
LSU 12-0 57.8 0.0 41.1
Wisconsin 11-1 40.9 40.6 15.4
Stanford 11-1 42.6 35.8 18.0
Alabama 11-1 56.8 35.4 7.4
Ohio U. 11-1 42.4 27.5 23.3
South Florida 11-1 41.1 27.1 23.9
Oklahoma St 11-1 36.5 17.0 30.6
Oklahoma 11-1 39.0 14.9 31.5

College Football Week 3 Ratings and Rankings

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.  The computer is always handicapped a bit early in the season to try to adapt to how teams have changed from last year, but after 3 games we can begin to get a clearer picture of where the teams really rate.

LSU remains #1, but the gap has shrunk, even though it is still sizable at nearly 3 points over now #2 Stanford.  They along with Boise State and Alabama leap frog Oklahoma even though Oklahoma's rating improved nearly a point.  Oklahoma State's late win jumps them to #6 and Wisconsin is next at #7.

One-loss teams Oregon and TCU are next then a slew of other undefeated teams, the biggest movers in the top-25 being Clemson, Georgia Tech, Utah, and San Diego State.

The top-25 is below, the full rankings on the web-site.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 LSU 90.242 3-0 68.674 +0, -2.074
2 Stanford 87.460 3-0 63.693 +4, +3.526
3 Boise St 86.771 2-0 72.873 +1, +1.158
4 Alabama 86.602 3-0 56.168 +1, +2.399
5 Oklahoma 86.423 2-0 73.460 -2, +0.760
6 Oklahoma St 85.699 3-0 65.824 +1, +2.006
7 Wisconsin 85.677 3-0 63.053 +2, +4.539
8 Oregon 84.116 2-1 69.308 -6, -2.855
9 TCU 81.159 2-1 69.554 -1, -0.853
10 Texas A&M 80.111 2-0 58.601 +1, +0.451
11 West Virginia 78.657 3-0 58.620 +12, +3.794
12 Clemson 78.264 3-0 65.019 +28, +7.138
13 South Carolina 77.750 3-0 70.038 -1, -1.606
14 South Florida 77.548 3-0 57.056 +12, +3.437
15 Georgia Tech 77.486 3-0 56.857 +23, +5.604
16 Virginia Tech 77.341 3-0 59.926 -1, -0.711
17 Nebraska 77.289 3-0 60.670 -1, -0.350
18 Florida 77.188 3-0 53.838 +2, +1.530
19 Utah 76.824 2-1 69.692 +26, +5.998
20 Arizona St 76.748 2-1 66.774 -3, -0.660
21 San Diego St 76.492 3-0 63.119 +29, +6.975
22 Florida St 76.322 2-1 57.797 -9, -2.989
23 Southern Cal 76.227 3-0 63.783 +13, +4.303
24 Illinois 75.891 3-0 60.806 -5, -0.867
25 Notre Dame 75.746 1-2 72.691 +12, +3.824

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

NFL projected records after week 1

With week 1 of the NFL season in the books, the computer can update its projected records for the season. These records are calculated by looking at each game on a teams schedule and the probability of winning it, then looking at all the permutations of how a team could get to each record and identifying the most likely record.  See the full list of projections each week here.

This week Baltimore leads the way with a 14-2 projected record with Green Bay and New England at 12-4.  If New England is #1 this week, why just 12-4 while Baltimore is 2 games better?  It all comes down to schedule.  Baltimore has already won one of their tough games against the Steelers, and has a second place schedule and gets to play the weak NFC West.  New England still has to play the Jets twice, has a first place schedule, and has to play the stronger NFC East.

Presently the playoff teams from the NFC would be Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, San Francisco, with Chicago and Detroit the wildcards.  In the AFC it woud be Baltimore, New England, Houston, San Diego, and the Jets and Cincinnati the wildcards, Pittsburgh getting left out.

Week 1 NFL Ratings Posted - New England #1

The NFL ratings after week 1 are now posted here.

New England stays #1 but Baltimore is the new #2 after their impressive win.  Green Bay slips a spot and Chicago moves up replacing the Jets at #4.

At the bottom, Carolina holds on to the bottom spot but Seattle drops 2 spots getting closer.

It is still very early and 1 game, particularly for a team like the Steelers who will likely play better than they did, doesn't tell the whole story, but the early ratings are still interesting.

And I generally don't recommend using the early season projections for the very reason that things are unstable, but using last years ratings for week 1 the computer went 11-5 against the spread and 11-5 picking winners while Vegas went 8-7 picking winners.  A good start!

Sunday, September 11, 2011

The NFL season begins

With a full slate of games, the NFL season has begun today.  First week ratings will be out Monday night, but if you are interested in how your team may finish the season, take a look at the pre-season projected records.

The projected records use the rating for each team from last year, but this seasons schedule.  With the lockout and varied degrees of practice and significant changes to rosters, it is likely this year could be more turbulent than others so these projections are likely off, but it is still interesting to look at.


2011 college football ratings are up

The early season ratings are usually not very accurate, but are still interesting nonetheless.  Given that, the NCAA college football ratings through week 2 (9/10) are now posted here.

Along with that, the projected records for all FBS teams using the week 2 ratings is here.

With just one or two games played by most teams, there is limited data to base the ratings on, but at this point, LSU's week 1 win over Oregon has them a far and away #1.  The polls have Oklahoma #1 and my computer has them #3.  There will be big changes from week to week early in the season so never fear if your favorite team isn't ranked where you think they should be.

And LSU is one of two teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated, along with Boise State.  Virginia Tech, Central Florida, Stanford, and Oklahoma are projected to have just 1 loss and decent shots of finishing undefeated too, and with the probable big changes in ratings the next few weeks we could see changes in the projections too.