Monday, December 26, 2011

2011 Little Caesars Bowl Preview - Western Michigan to pull the upset

The Little Caesars Bowl will take place on 12/27 pitting Western Michigan against Purdue. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is av
ailable
.

Western Michigan is ranked #60 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 68.041 against a schedule strength of 62.229. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were ok early, had a two game poor streak in the middle, and then a bit better, their worst game being at Northern Illinois and best game being against Bowling Green. They are 5-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.



Purdue is ranked #72 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 65.928 against a schedule strength of 65.750. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being against Middle Tennessee State and best game being against Minnesota. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Illinois and Michigan as follows:


2 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Purdue
2 Western_Michigan-->Michigan-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Akron-->Ohio_State-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Ball_St-->Indiana-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Eastern_Michigan-->Michigan-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Eastern_Michigan-->Penn_State-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Indiana-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Michigan-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Minnesota-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Ohio_State-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Penn_State-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Miami_OH-->Minnesota-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Michigan-->Illinois-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Michigan-->Iowa-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Michigan-->Minnesota-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Michigan-->Notre_Dame-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Michigan-->Ohio_State-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Northern_Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Purdue
3 Western_Michigan-->Toledo-->Ohio_State-->Purdue


Against Illinois, Western Michigan lost by 3 on the road and Purdue won by 7 at home.  Against Michigan, Western Michigan lost 34-10 on the road and Purdue lost 36-14 on the road.

The spread is Purdue by 2.5 and the computer disagrees picking Western Michigan in the upset by 2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Western Michigan +2.5 over .. Purdue 2.0 4.5 0.578 0.673

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux S
ports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column
is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.