Sunday, December 4, 2011

Will Oklahoma State pass Alabama for #2 in the BCS rankings?

In what will likely be the last in the series of analysis posts on Oklahoma getting past Alabama for the #2 spot in the BCS, I'll take a look at what needs to happen in the Harris poll since it is the one big piece still missing with the Coaches poll now released.

The Sagarin BCS rankings came out and Alabama remains #2 there.  Rumor is that the Wolfe computer also has Alabama #2 which means Oklahoma won't get the full #2 spot (0.04 advantage) over Alabama in the computers.  Rather, it would likely be 0.03.  That means they'd have to give up no more than 0.015 in each of the polls.

In the Coaches poll, 0.015 would be about 22 votes.  But with the Coaches poll out, the margin is 32 votes or 0.0217.  That means they can only give up 0.00831 or 23 votes in the Harris poll.

Even with Virginia Tech losing, that will be hard to make up as Stanford was also in between Oklahoma State and Alabama, so it would require every voter having them ahead of Stanford and nearly half of the voters having them ahead of Alabama.

And for those wondering what would happen if the AP poll was used, it is out and Oklahoma State is only 18 votes or 0.012 behind Alabama which would not be quite close enough.

We'll see what happens in 4 hours or so, but I'm doubting Oklahoma State will get the support required.