Saturday, December 31, 2011

2012 Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl Preview - Florida to win, Ohio State to cover

The Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Ohio State against Florida. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Ohio State is ranked #39 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 71.965 against a schedule strength of 68.995. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Miami FL and best game being against Wisconsin. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-4 picking their games against the spread and 4-5 picking winners in their games.



Florida is ranked #32 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 73.204 against a schedule strength of 71.106. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good early but then declined, their worst game being against Florida State and best game being at Kentucky. They are 2-6 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Ohio_State-->Miami_FL-->Florida_St-->Florida
3 Ohio_State-->Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Florida
3 Ohio_State-->Penn_State-->Alabama-->Florida


The spread is Florida by 2 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Ohio State +2.0 over *. Florida 1.2 0.8 0.567 0.541

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.