Estimated Dynamic Ratings

The National Tennis Rating Program (NTRP) is used by the USTA to rate players for the purposes of having them play at the the proper levels that will foster competitive play between players at the same level.  Levels are defined from 2.5 up to 7.0 in 0.5 increments, a 2.5 being a beginning player and a 7.0 being a touring pro, but you will typically see adult league play in primarily the 2.5 thru 5.0 levels.

I started playing USTA League in 2010, and being a bit of a stats geek and having done ratings systems for other sports, I soon became intently interested in the NTRP system and how the ratings were calculated.  The USTA only publishes ratings to the half point and only updates them at the end of the year (early start ratings are published in some sections, or DQs can occur for new players that have underrated themselves) and I wanted to calculate finer grained ratings and be able to see them throughout the year, so the Estimated Dynamic Rating was created.

I started estimating ratings for my local league, then my local area, and was fortunate to go to Nationals in 2011 so naturally looked at ratings from other sections in order to scout opponents.  Soon thereafter, I started generating reports showing a players estimated dynamic rating along with a summary of their stats from their league tennis matches and also a chart showing how their dynamic rating changed match by match.  Originally, it was just in my section, the Pacific Northwest, but quickly grew to cover any and all USTA sections.

Today, I can generate an Estimated Dynamic Rating Report for any USTA League player and can also generate Team Reports to show the ratings and related stats for a team which can be a great way to scout opponents.  I also regularly blog about ratings and playoff related USTA League topics.

Other resources on this site include an NTRP Ratings FAQ and I have a record of the USTA League National Champions from 20132014, 2015, and 2016.

Note that this site and the ratings published are in no way affiliated with the USTA.  These ratings are for information and entertainment purposes only and may or may not be close to the actual rating maintained by the USTA, although the accuracy has proven to be well over 90%.

9 comments:

  1. Your National projections were really solid. I'm interested in finding out your projection for my 2015 rating. My name is Scott Bigham. Email is sbigham97@gmail.com

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  2. Hi I just had my rating appealed up. It was automatic through tennislink.. Now i have an A besides my rating.. How do other players view that dreaded A?
    Any thoughts.

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    1. I can't say how others view an "A", but to me it just means the player was really close to being bumped up so will give them a fair shot at playing at the new level. To me, that is better than allowing any player from a lower level, no matter how low in the range they are, to play up.

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    2. Yes, it is understood that an A means the rating was obtained via appeal. That was not the question, rather it is how do other players view someone with an A.

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  3. Hi I just had my rating appealed up. It was automatic through tennislink.. Now i have an A besides my rating.. How do other players view that dreaded A?
    Any thoughts.

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  4. Hello, I was new to tennis in 2019. I self-rated as a 3.0, but tried out for a 3.5 doubles team and they let me on and I played a few matches and lost them all. It was hard. It was humbling. But then USTA bumped me to 3.5 that Dec 2019. I had already put together a 3.0 mixed doubles team and I appealed down so I could play with my partner. I didn't realize appealing down was a bad thing. We played in Spring 2020 and then COVID 2020 hit. In Dec 2020, no one was bumped. I had hoped I'd be giving the 3.5 back, because I then felt more prepared and ready for that level. This past year in Spring I played 3.0 and 3.5 and have only placed 3.5 since late Spring, Summer and now in Fall. Doubles and Singles. Question: Will I be eligible to be bumped to 3.5 or will my decidion to not accept the 3.5 rating in Dec 2019 prevent me from being bumped up? I really want to only play 3.5 and eventually play up to 4.0 if they let me. Playing 3.0 is no longer that much fun for me, competitively. I'd rather get my butt kicked and work hard and learn. Any advice?

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    1. You will get a new year-end rating in December and you could be a 3.5 if your results indicate you should be.

      If you are interested in seeing where my ratings estimate you to be, contact me at ratings@teravation.net.

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  5. I am a 3.0C player partnered with a 3.5C player for doubles on 3.5 team. My dynamic rating was 3.15 / partner's 3.07 going into match. We won 7-6, 3-6, 1-0 against two 3.5C players (3.13 and 3.26 dynamic ratings respectively). My rating went down 3.12 and partner's went up to 3.09. I am totally confused why mine went down.

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