Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 AutoZone Liberty Bowls Preview - Vanderbilt to win and cover

The AutoZone Liberty Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Cincinnati against Vanderbilt. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Cincinnati is ranked #38 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 72.024 against a schedule strength of 64.199. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent with a few downs, their worst game being at Rutgers and best game being against North Carolina State. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Vanderbilt is ranked #26 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 74.358 against a schedule strength of 70.331. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were moderately consistent, getting a bit better throughout the year, their worst game being at South Carolina and best game being at Wake Forest. They are 5-2 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-2 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through UConn and Tennessee and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Cincinnati-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
2 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Louisville-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Louisville-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Miami_OH-->Army-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->North_Carolina_St-->Wake_Forest-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Pittsburgh-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Rutgers-->Army-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Rutgers-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->South_Florida-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Syracuse-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Syracuse-->Wake_Forest-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Alabama-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Arkansas-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Florida-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Georgia-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->Kentucky-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->Tennessee-->South_Carolina-->Vanderbilt
3 Cincinnati-->West_Virginia-->Connecticut-->Vanderbilt

Against UConn, Cincinnati won 35-27 at home and Vandy won 24-21 at home.  Against Tennessee, Cincinnati lost 45-23 on the road and Vandy lost 27-21 on the road.

The spread is Vandy by 1.5 and the computer agrees picking them by 2.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Vanderbilt            -1.5 over  .           Cincinnati  2.3  0.8 0.597 0.535

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.