Thursday, December 15, 2011

How did Denver change with Tebow and what does the computer predict against New England?

Discussing Tim Tebow is certainly the rage right now, so I had to join everyone else, but will take a different perspective.  Specifically, from the computer's standpoint, how have Denver's results changed since Tebow started playing?

The best way to visualize this is of course the performance chart.  Here is Denver's:

Early, Denver was both not playing as well and losing as is seen with the red dots in the 70's, but they also weren't as consistent.  Since then, aside from the Detroit game, they've both rated better but also been quite consistent.

Interestingly their worst game of the year was with Tebow playing Detroit.

If we just look at Denver vs New England using the full season, New England is the better team by about 5 points, meaning even with the game in Denver, New England would be the pick.

Now, if we look at just the past 6 games, they've been good and consistent, averaging 87.6.  That would have them right in the mix with New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh for #2 behind Green Bay.  That also means if they play to that level they'd be favored over New England since the game is in Denver.

So the question is, can they continue to play at that level?  To be fair, we should probably look at their last 8 in which case their average is 85.0.  Even with that, the computer, with home field advantage, would give Denver the slightest of edges to win.

With the line nearly 7, it would certainly seem that taking Denver plus the points is the pick, but looking at it a few different ways you can actually make the argument that Denver should, not just could, win!