Saturday, December 24, 2011

2011 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Preview - Southern Miss to win, Nevada to cover

The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl will take place on 12/24 pitting Nevada against Southern Miss. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Nevada is ranked #56 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 69.178 against a schedule strength of 64.735. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent all year, their worst game being at Oregon and best game being against Idaho. They are 4-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-3 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



Southern Miss is ranked #26 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 74.224 against a schedule strength of 61.890. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were a bit up and down, their worst game being at Alabama-Birmingham and best game being at Houston. They are 7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 5-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Louisiana Tech as follows:


2 Nevada-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->Fresno_St-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->Hawaii-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->Idaho-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->Idaho-->Virginia-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->Louisiana_Tech-->Houston-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->New_Mexico_St-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->New_Mexico_St-->UTEP-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->San_Jose_St-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->San_Jose_St-->Navy-->Southern_Miss
3 Nevada-->Utah_St-->Louisiana_Tech-->Southern_Miss


Against Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss won 19-17 at home and Nevada lost 24-20 at home.

The spread is Southern Miss by 6 and the computer agrees but by only 1.2. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Nevada +6.0 over *. Southern Miss 4.8 1.2 0.676 0.547

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

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