Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2011 Champs Sports Bowl Preview - Notre Dame in the upset

The Champs Sports Bowl will take place on 12/29 pitting Florida State against Notre Dame. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Florida State is ranked #23 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 75.871 against a schedule strength of 64.818. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, especially late, their worst game being against Virginia and best game being at Florida. They are 2-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-2 picking their games against the spread and 4-3 picking winners in their games.



Notre Dame is ranked #22 by the computer with a 8-4 record and a rating of 76.126 against a schedule strength of 70.308. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down early, a little more consistent late but finished a little down, their worst game being against South Florida and best game being against Michigan State. They are 5-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-3 picking their games against the spread and 9-0 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees 3 ways through BC, Maryland, and Wake Forest, and 3 degrees as follows:

2 Florida_St-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
2 Florida_St-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
2 Florida_St-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Boston_College-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Boston_College-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Clemson-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Clemson-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Clemson-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Duke-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Duke-->Stanford-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Duke-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Maryland-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Maryland-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Miami_FL-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Miami_FL-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Miami_FL-->South_Florida-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->North_Carolina_St-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->North_Carolina_St-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->North_Carolina_St-->Wake_Forest-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Virginia-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Wake_Forest-->Boston_College-->Notre_Dame
3 Florida_St-->Wake_Forest-->Maryland-->Notre_Dame

Against BC, Florida State won 38-7 on the road and Notre Dame eked out at 16-14 win at home.  Against Maryland won big on at home and Notre Dame won big effectively on the road.  Against Wake Forest, FSU lost 35-30 on the road and Notre Dame won 24-17 on the road.


The spread is FSU by 3 and the computer disagrees picking the upset of Notre Dame by 0.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.Notre Dame +3.0 over . Florida State 0.4 3.4 0.515 0.638

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.