2023 USTA League Nationals Week 1 Day 1 Observations

Day one of 2023 USTA League Nationals is almost in the books.  A few observations.

The 2.5 women have seven teams at 2-0 after one day.  That isn't unprecedented, the schedule can just align to allow that, but what isn't common is there being a chance that six teams finish 4-0.  In my preview/simulation there was just a 2% chance of five 4-0 teams, but that is now 15% and the chance of six 4-0 teams is 2.2%!  Not likely, but the mere possibility is something I'm sure no one wants.

Texas is dominating the 3.5 men.  It is the same captain that has used questionable tactics to form rosters in the past and had it work, it may be working again.  Very little chance of a lot of 4-0 teams here, Texas could be the only one.

The 3.5 women are still going, but may have just two or three 4-0 teams so will we have a tie to break at 3-1?  The simulation says there could be just one 3-1 team which would I think be a first.

The 5.0 men have four 2-0 teams but no chance they all remain spotless.  The simulation even says one of them (Southern) might not make the semis.

And the 5.0 women also have four 2-0 teams but also no chance they all don't lose.  The simulation says it could be tight for the last spot, and even a 10% chance a 2-2 team advances to the semis.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Men

The start of 2023 USTA League Nationals is just a few days away and with that, it is time for my simulations.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

Teams: 17

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 3%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 91% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.72 / 3.46

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.60 / 3.50

Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, Missouri Valley, NorCal, SoCal, Texas
Contenders: Midwest, Florida

Yes, I show 5 contenders for 4 spots.  4th and 5th are very close so had to include them both.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5 Women

The start of 2023 USTA League Nationals is just a few days away and with that, it is time for my simulations.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths are based on top-10 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 4 undefeated: 2%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 86% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.61 / 3.37

Toughest / easiest schedule: 3.55 / 3.45

Favorites: Intermountain, Mid-Atlantic, Southern
Contenders: Caribbean, NorCal, Pacific Northwest, SoCal

Despite there being 17 teams, a very slim chance of four or more undefeated.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 5.0 Men

The start of 2023 USTA League Nationals is just a few days away and with that, it is time for my simulations.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths for 5.0s are based on top-7 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 5.0 men.

Teams: 11

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 58% / 4

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.97 / 4.59

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.90 / 4.77

Favorites: Intermountain, Missouri Valley, NorCal, Pacific Northwest
Contenders: Eastern, Florida, Southwest, Texas

With just 11 teams, there is no chance of more than four undefeated and only a very slim chance of even four.  Some solid favorites, but two of the contenders are very close.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 5.0 Women

The start of 2023 USTA League Nationals is just a few days away and with that, it is time for my simulations.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths for 5.0s are based on top-7 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 18 & Over 5.0 women.

Teams: 12

Chance of 4 undefeated: 5%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 0%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 66% / 3

Strongest / weakest team strength: 4.90 / 4.59

Toughest / easiest schedule: 4.80 / 4.69

Favorites: Florida, Mid-Atlantic, NorCal, SoCal
Contenders: Midwest, Missouri Valley, Pacific Northwest

With just 12 teams, there is no chance of more than four undefeated.  Some solid favorites, but the contenders aren't far back.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 2.5 Women

The start of 2023 USTA League Nationals is just a few days away and with that, it is time for my simulations!

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

This year I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  The strengths for 2.5s are based on top-7 averages.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.

On to the projections from the simulation, starting with the 18 & Over 2.5 women.

Teams: 17

Chance of 4 undefeated: 19%

Chance of 5 undefeated: 2%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 73% / 3

Strongest / weakest team strength: 3.07 / 2.48

Toughest / easiest schedule: 2.80 / 2.58

Favorites: Florida, Middle States, Missouri Valley
Contenders: Eastern, NorCal, Southern

I will say that 2.5 is really hard to predict as players have the ability to improve dramatically during the year, and there are a lot of self-rates.  And we see some wide ranges of team strengths from 2.48 to 3.07!  So I expect some surprises and the projections above could be significantly off.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Visualizing 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 3.5

2023 USTA League Nationals will be underway two weeks from today with the 3.5 men and women in Surprise, AZ.  The schedules have been published and should be final now, so I'll continue with my posts visualizing the schedules following up on the 18 & Over 4.5 I did last week.

Here are the 18 & Over 3.5 women.

This looks reasonably balanced and random.  We'll see when I do the simulation but there may be a very low chance of more than four undefeated teams with this schedule.

And the 18 & Over 3.5 men.

This also looks reasonably random and balanced.

More to come!

Visualizing 2023 USTA League Nationals - 18 & Over 4.5

2023 USTA League Nationals start in just a few weeks, and the schedules have been published.  Some may be preliminary and could change if a section ends up not sending a team, but I think most are close to if not final at this point.  That means I can once again visualize the schedules as I did last year!

Here are the 18 & Over 4.5 women.

We can see there are sort of two groups that all play each other a lot, but just a handful of cross over matches between them.  When I do my simulations we'll see how that all plays out.

And the 18 & Over 4.5 men.

This is a little more evenly connected, but sort of has three groups sparsely connected.

More to come!

2023 USTA League Nationals schedules are available!

USTA League Nationals for 2023 start is just over three weeks now and the teams playing in the first few weeks have been anxiously awaiting the schedules to see who and when they play, and the schedules are now available!

Links to each schedule show up on the USTA League Nationals Schedule page and are listed as "tentative" so I guess they are still subject to change, but teams and captains can now begin to scout opponents and plan line-ups.

For those that want some assistance doing that scouting and planning, I offer a number of report options to take the drudgery out of collecting all the information, and more importantly use my ratings to create useful summaries of team strength and line-ups tendencies, detailed ratings on players and partnerships by team, and do simulations of the event to predict who will advance.

I will write more on each event as we get closer, including summaries from my simulations a few days before each event, but if you want all the details on a simulation, or any of the other reports, contact me and I'll get you all set up.