Saturday, December 31, 2011

2012 Outback Bowl - Georgia to win, Michigan State to cover

The Outback Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Michigan State against Georgia. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Michigan State is ranked #16 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 78.052 against a schedule strength of 68.228. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down, a few bad games pulling them down and out of the top-10, their worst game being at Nebraska and best game being against Michigan. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



Georgia is ranked #11 by the computer with a 10-3 record and a rating of 79.746 against a schedule strength of 71.067. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were quite consistent after a bit of a slow start, their worst game being against Boise State and best game being against Auburn. They are 7-0 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-6 picking their games against the spread and 8-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 as follows:


3 Michigan_St-->Central_Michigan-->Kentucky-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Auburn-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Florida_Atlantic-->Florida-->Georgia
3 Michigan_St-->Minnesota-->New_Mexico_St-->Georgia


The spread is Gerogia by 4 and the computer agrees picking them by 1.7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Michigan State +4.0 over *. Georgia 1.7 2.3 0.572 0.598

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

No comments:

Post a Comment