Friday, June 29, 2012

Early Start Ratings Are Out for the Pacific Northwest USTA Section

Early start ratings are now out for the Pacific Northwest section (see, so how did the predictions I made yesterday do?

For the men, 2 of the 4 I listed happened (Bart Cocales and Mark Bergman) and 4 of the 5 women I listed were bumped up.

I'll be doing some additional research on the ones I missed as well as more analysis of the full field.  I suspect I'll have some adjustments to my ratings so stay tuned.

Note 7/1/13: This was for early start ratings at the end of June 2012.  Stay tuned for some discussion of the 2013 early start ratings once they do come out.

Note 7/2/13: See this for info on 2013.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

A few predicted early start bump ups using Estimated Dynamic NTRP

I wrote earlier about early start ratings coming out soon and how it provides an opportunity to measure how accurate my Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings are.  I'll do some analysis after they come out, but here as an example are what my ratings say are the "locks" to be bumped up at each level.  For this analysis, I'm only looking at players that were computer rated coming in to the year, not any self-rated players.

First the men:

  • 2.5 - Only several self-rated 2.5s are obvious bump ups
  • 3.0 - Bart Cocales is at 3.16 which would seem a clear bump up
  • 3.5 - Richard Sweet is at 3.62 which I'd expect would be bumped up
  • 4.0 - Colin Saechao is at 4.12 which I'd expect would be bumped up
  • 4.5 - Mark Bergman is at 4.56 which is just into 5.0 range and depending on the USTA's tolerances may be bumped up
For the women:
  • 2.5 - Jaisve Ochea is at 2.78 and should be bumped up
  • 3.0 - Barbara Smith is at 3.24 and should be bumped up
  • 3.5 - Constance Marley is at 3.68 and should be bumped up
  • 4.0 - Erin Link is at 4.05 and may be bumped up
  • 4.5 - Christine Hayes is at 4.56 and may be bumped up
There you have it.  Could these be wrong?  Sure, and certainly there will be more than the above.

Look for more later.

Note: corrected men's 3.0 bump up due to data error

Note 7/1: This was for early start ratings at the end of June 2012.  Stay tuned for some discussion of the 2013 early start ratings once they do come out.

Follow @computerratings on Twitter for more updates

Those of you who have recently found this site because of the Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings I'm publishing may not be aware of the Twitter handle, @computerratings, associated with this blog and the site.  It is by no means a replacement for the blog or site, but is another way to get updates and interact with me to ask questions.

So, keep the comments coming on this blog and point your feed reader at this blogs RSS feed, but also follow @computerratings on twitter.  As a bonus, come football season you'll get ratings, rankings, and predictions for the NFL and college football.

Early Start Ratings for the Pacific Northwest Section of USTA Due Out Soon

In the Pacific Northwest Section of the USTA, several of the leagues start the 2013 early in the late summer/fall of 2012.  Since these leagues start before the year end ratings come out (typically end of November), the section takes a current snapshot of the Dynamic NTRP to publish an "early start" rating for all players to use in these early start leagues.  This is done so that a player that has played well or poor enough to be moved up or down at the end of the year can play in these leagues at the appropriate level.

My understanding is that unlike the year end ratings that include a benchmark calculation on top of the Dynamic NTRP, these early start ratings are just more or less a snapshot of the current Dynamic NTRP.  Given this, it can be informative, for me at least, to compare the ratings I've put on my site with those that are bumped up or down.  In theory, my ratings should be close.

Now, like I've said before, I'm sure my ratings are not exactly the same as the Dynamic NTRP, they are just an estimate, so I'm sure I won't have a perfect fit.  Additionally, I think the section uses all Adult league matches played through the date the early start ratings are published, including local playoffs, but perhaps not including matches from One Doubles as those will be added in at the end of the year.  Since my ratings currently don't include local playoffs and do include One Doubles matches to date, that also makes my ratings not an exact match for what the section will publish.

That said, I'll be looking for the early start and doing some comparisons.  Stay tuned for some analysis.

Note 7/2/13: See this for info on 2013.

Updated Men's Estimated NTRP ratings through 6/27/2012

The new men's Estimated NTRP rating through 6/27 have been posted to the site.

Note that I've continued to refine the algorithm and it is handling self-rated players more correctly now. As a result, you will see some players with a 0.00 rating and these are self-rated players that have played matches against only other self-rated players and thus cannot have a dynamic rating yet.

Monday, June 18, 2012

2012 Northwest Washington Adult League Local Playoffs are Complete

The local playoffs for the Northwest Washington Adult League were played this past weekend and with their completion, the local season is complete.  Congratulations to all the teams that have advanced to sectionals.  I'm working on updated estimated ratings and will have them posted shortly.

As I'm sure folks have noticed, my ratings have been just for Northwest Washington.  As teams move to sectionals, it may be interesting to see how the teams from the other parts of the Pacific Northwest section stack up.  Further, I'd hate to put the Northwest Washington teams at a disadvantage by only having their estimated ratings published.

So, I'm working on the other areas and hope to have something soon.  If you are interested in these ratings, please leave a comment on this blog with what would be most interesting to you.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Updated Men's Estimated NTRP ratings through 6/3/2012

The new men's Estimated NTRP rating through 6/3 have been posted to the site.