Sunday, April 29, 2012

Updated Estimated NTRP for Northwest Washington Men Posted

The weekend isn't over, but I played a match last night so updated the Estimated NTRP ratings so I could see what happened to my rating (it went down a bit :( ) and I've posted these to the site.  I'll probably post again late Monday or Tuesday after the full weekend of match scores should be available.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Past year Estimated Dynamic NTRP now available

I have posted the 2010 and 2011 end of regular season Estimated Dynamic NTRP ratings to the web-site for the Northwest Washington area. See the 2010 men, 2010 women, 2011 men, and 2011 women.

I should note a few things.

First, these ratings generally only include regular season matches.  No local, regional, sectional, or national playoffs are included, except I did include some for the 3.5 mens level for 2011.

Second, the final USTA NTRP ratings do a recalculation based on benchmark players at the end of the year and they do not simply use the current Dynamic NTRP.

Third, the USTA can and has elected to do mass bumps up/down at times to keep the levels balanced.

For these reasons, what you see as the final rating may not match the end of year NTRP from the USTA. But it is still interesting to look at.

Women's Estimated Dynamic NTRP updated

And now the women's ratings are updated to include all levels from 2.5 to 5.0.  See them here.

Updated Mens Estimated NTRP for Northwest Washington posted

I wrote yesterday about my newly released rating for players playing in USTA League Tennis, the Estimated NTRP.  I've already posted an update, this one adding in all levels from 2.5 to 5.0 to the current ratings for Northwest Washington men.

An update for the women and past year's end of year ratings will be posted shortly.  I'll also be writing on statistics and observations as well so stay tuned.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Estimated USTA Dynamic NTRP for Northwest Washington Adult Leagues

Note: This post was made in April 2012 but seems to be found by search engines frequently.  I am now doing ratings/reports for all USTA League play so contact me if interested in a report or click here to see the latest posts on this blog.

I'm a huge football fan and love doing computer ratings for both the NFL and College Football, but the sport I play the most is tennis and have been playing USTA League Tennis for the past few years.

For those that follow USTA League Tennis, you know that players play at different levels to promote competitive play and the USTA uses a National Tennis Rating Program (NTRP) rating to determine what level a player is at.  Levels exist from 1.5 all the way up to 7.0 (in 0.5 increments), but typically league play is at the 2.5 thru 5.0 levels.

Initially, players self rate usually with assistance with a local tennis pro, but there after the USTA computes a Dynamic NTRP nightly throughout the season (self rated players are subject to DQ if their rating increases too much), and then computes an end of year rating which determines the level a player will be at the following year.

The challenge is that the USTA does not publish Dynamic NTRP ratings at all, and the end of year rating is only published to the 0.5 level (e.g. 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, etc.) so one never knows exactly where they fall within their level.

Naturally, I couldn't help but try to determine how all this was calculated and while the USTA does not publish the algorithm, there was enough information out there that I've come up with what I consider a reasonable approximation of the algorithm to the point that I now have what I call an Estimated Dynamic NTRP.

Since I live in the Seattle area, I'm presently only calculating this for the Northwest Washington Area of the Pacific Northwest Section, and I have now published the current ratings with the matches available thru April 16th on the web-site.  It is presently just the men's levels from 3.0 thru 4.5.   I'll try keep this updated once a week and also include the women's levels soon.

Let me know what you think!

Update: Women's 3.0 and 3.5 now posted too here.

Update: Ratings through April 1st, 2013 posted now here.

Update: Ratings for Southwest Washington now posted too here.

2012 NFL Pre-Season Projected Records

The NFL released the 2012 schedule today and with that, my computer can now project the records for each team.  Without further adieu, here is the list.

The columns below are the team, most likely record with the chance of that record, then the chance of a record one game better and one game worse.  Red teams are AFC and blue are NFC, and bold are the teams that would win their divisions.

Note that these projections are based on the end of year ratings from last year and do not reflect any ratings changes due to personnel or coaching changes.  So Denver is project at 7-9 in part due to a tougher schedule as a division winner, but having Peyton Manning is not factored in.

There are no big surprises, New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh expected to top the AFC and Houston also winning their division.  The small surprises are probably San Diego winning the West (no Manning factored in for Denver) and Miami getting a wildcard.  But Cincinnati, the Jets, and Tennessee would all be tied with Miami so it would come down to tie-breakers.

In the NFC, also no big surprises unless you expect New Orleans to falter and Atlanta to benefit, although Atlanta is projected to be a wildcard.  Philadelphia is right there at 9-7 too, but Dallas and Chicago are close but a game back.


TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
New England12-422.718.020.6
Green Bay12-422.617.221.3
San Francisco11-522.417.620.8
New Orleans11-521.919.618.3
NY Giants10-621.117.819.1
San Diego9-720.417.518.5
NY Jets8-820.319.316.5
Kansas City7-920.118.916.6
Tampa Bay5-1121.917.420.6
St Louis4-1223.519.520.3