Monday, December 5, 2011

How close did Oklahoma State come to BCS #2 part 2

I wrote up some scenarios last night on how close it was between Alabama and Oklahoma State for the BCS #2 spot, and determined that it was 1 computer and 5 voters.  Now that we know more about the Coaches poll, we can actually say a little more.  Also, for those interested, I'll look at what it would have taken with just the polls and no computer change.

First, we now know that it was 6 coaches that voted Oklahoma State lower than third.  Five had them fourth and one had them fifth, one additional or 36 had them third.

The same analysis as before still applies.  If one of Sagarin or Wolfe had Oklahoma State #2, and 5 voters that had Oklahoma State #3 swapped them with Alabama to #2, Oklahoma State would have been #2 in the BCS.

However, it could have been even less.  Specifically, if the Air Force coach that voted Oklahoma State #5 had voted them #2, and if two of the other coaches that voted them #4 had voted them #2, Oklahoma State would have also taken the lead.  That is just 1 computer and 3 coaches!

Ok, but that is assuming a computer would have changed.  What if it hadn't.

It isn't as close then, but still somewhat close.  It would have taken all of the 6 coaches that voted them 4th or 5th, plus 10 of the coaches voting them 3rd, all moving them to #2.  Still, that is just 16 coaches.  Awfully close.