Tuesday, December 20, 2016

They're back! Christmas Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports, a great stocking stuffer

As I've done the past few years, I'm offering PDF versions of Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports, perfect as a stocking stuffer or last minute gift for that hard to buy for USTA playing tennis friend or family member.  The PDF of the report will be provided at no extra charge and you'll still get my explanation of the report in the e-mail I send with the PDF.

Here is what the PDF will look like.

Contact me to request a report or with any questions.  And Happy Holidays!

Sunday, December 11, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages by section for the 4.0 level - Interesting tennis league stats

I've looked at the bump up/down percentages for the 3.0, 3.5, and 4.5 levels.  Now the 4.0 level for men and women by section.

Here are the percentages of bumps up and down from 2015 for the 4.0 women.

Here we see a mix of some sections having more bumps up than down (4) and some vice versa (13), but none with even 8% going either way, so this was a relatively stable level.  Midwest did have the most bump downs while Eastern, Pacific Northwest, and Southern Cal were in a virtual tie for the most bumps up.

And the same for the 4.0 men.

This is not as balanced as the women, there were a lot more sections with more bumps up (13) than down (4), and Southern Cal had over 9% of their 4.0 men bumped up, and Caribbean, Florida, and Middle States weren't far behind.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages by section for the 4.5 level - Interesting tennis league stats

I've looked at the bump up/down percentages for the 3.0 and 3.5 levels.  Now the 4.5 levels.

Here are the percentages of bumps up and down from 2015 for the 4.5 women.

Among a bunch of sections that had 2-4 times as many players bumped down than up, Caribbean somehow ended up with nearly 10% of their 4.5s bumped up.  Southwest went way the other way with over 15% of their 4.5 women bumped down.

And then the same for the 4.5 men.

The thing that jumps out here is that Hawaii had a remarkable number of bump downs for players that were at the 4.5 level.  Most other sections had more bump downs than up, but at over 17% Hawaii led the way.

Interestingly, Northern and Eastern are the only sections that had more bumps up than down.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages by section for the 3.0 level - Interesting tennis league stats

Next up in the analysis of 2016 USTA League year-end bump ups is the 3.0 level.

Here are the 3.0 women bump percentages by section.

At the 3.0 level, there are a lot more bumps up than down, not a big surprise as players improve.  And for the 3.0 women Southern Cal and Southwest lead the way with around 19% of players bumped up, with Caribbean not far behind.  And no section had fewer than 10% bumped up.

Hawaii had virtually no bump downs, and no section had more than 5% bumped down.

Here are the bump percentages for the 3.0 men.

And we have a winner!  Hardly any 3.0 men were bumped down, and over 40% of Southern Cal 3.0 men were bumped up!  And these don't include self-rates, these are just players that were 2015 year-end 3.0Cs and improved this year to 3.5.  Nice weather encourages folks to play and improve, or there were a lot of sandbaggers in 2015 getting C ratings.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages by section for the 3.5 level - Interesting tennis league stats

The USTA published year-end ratings last week, and I took a first look at some bump percentages by section, now it is time to start looking at things by NTRP level.  First, the 3.5 level by section.

Here are the bump percentages for the 3.5 women by section.

We see that Southern Cal had the most bumps up, nearly 10% of 2015 year-end C rated 3.5 women being bumped up.  The Pacific Northwest and Texas are close behind with Southwest and Missouri Valley right around 7.5%.  At the other end of the spectrum, Hawaii was at just over 5% bumped up while Mid-Atlantic and Middle States were right around 6%.

No section had more bump downs than up, but Northern was the closest with over 5% of 3.5 women bumped down and on the other end of things, Southern Cal had under 3% bumped down.

And then the bump percentages for the 3.5 men by section.

The 3.5 men also saw the most bumps up in Southern Cal, nearly 14%.  This is a bit surprising given the section didn't even have their team make the semis at Nationals.  Texas finished second at Nationals and had over 12% bumped up, and no section had less than 7% bumped up.

Southern Cal, Florida, and Texas had the fewest bumps down at well under 2%.

Friday, December 2, 2016

2016 USTA League NTRP rating bump percentages, overall and by section - Interesting tennis league stats

It has been a couple days since the 2016 USTA year-end NTRP rating levels were published, so as the dust settles it is time to start doing some analysis to see what we can learn.

This is the first in what is sure to be a series of posts looking at how many players were bumped up or down, slicing the data by section, level, and more.  For the purposes of this analysis, I'm looking at the changes for players that were 2015 and 2016 year-end computer rated.

First, overall, 87% of players stayed at the same level, with 4% bumped down and 9% bumped up.  Keep this in mind as we take a look at the data by section.

By comparison, last year at 2015 year-end, 8% were bumped up and 4.7% bumped down.  So not a radical change at all, a similar ratio of bump ups to downs, and similar numbers overall.

And here is the overall data by section.

The chart shows things were actually quite consistent from section to section.  There is the usual large number of bump ups in Caribbean, but nearly every other section is in the range of 7-10%.  Southern Cal, which did well at Nationals, is the highest after Caribbean, and then Texas and Pacific Northwest.  Southern is somewhat surprisingly fifth after being my Section of the Year, but with so many players in the section it would be hard to bump the entire section up!

Bump down were also quite consistent, being right around 4-5% in nearly every section.

The above includes both genders together.  What about if we look at them individually?

Here is the chart by section for women.

This is actually quite consistent with the overall stats.  Pacific Northwest is now second behind Caribbean, but you still have Southern Cal, Texas, Southern, and Southwest close behind.  Being a strong section traditionally, Northern Cal had a surprisingly large number of bump downs, the highest percentage of any section!

And here is the chart by section for the men.

As you might imagine, the men aren't wildly different.  Southern Cal actually beats out Caribbean for the highest bump percentage, and Hawaii leads the way for bump downs.

If you look at the same charts from 2015, there appears to be a lot less variation, the sections are a lot more consistent.  It appears the USTA did not see the need to make any mass adjustments, at the section level at least, which is a bit surprising given how a few sections continued to dominate at Nationals.

What do you think?  Were are the bump percentages what you expected?

If you are interested in knowing more about your specific rating, I'm still doing reports for 2016.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

What? No way! Why? Understanding your 2016 year-end NTRP rating

The 2016 USTA League year-end NTRP ratings are out, and many players received the year-end rating they were expecting.  But some individuals may still be surprised with where they ended up.

There are always some surprises for players.  Some may have been expecting to stay where they were but got bumped up or down, while others may have won a lot and were expected a bump up, or lost a lot and thought they'd be bumped down, and neither happened.

I will be doing some analysis to look at what happened and if there were any surprises or adjustments made by the USTA and reporting a variety of stats, but for those that want to understand why they were/weren't bumped up/down, they can always get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report that will help explain how it all works.  While my ratings aren't perfect, they usually can explain odd bumps or lack thereof.  Contact me for more information.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

2016 USTA NTRP year-end ratings are published!

The wait is over, the USTA has published the 2016 year-end NTRP Ratings.  At least some are now showing at 2016 year-end ratings.

USTA League players may now furiously go check their rating on TennisLink and see whether they were bumped up or not and begin figuring out what team(s) they can play on.

Stay tuned for more details as I look at the ratings and do my analysis.

Monday, November 28, 2016

BREAKING NEWS! 2016 year-end ratings may not be published today!

I wrote yesterday that folks should be ready for ratings to come out today as that is the traditional timing for them, but that I'd heard rumors of a possible delay.  I've now had several other sources seemingly confirm that, although the exact day is still not known.  I've heard everything from this Thursday, this Friday, and next week.

I now believe that while I'm sure the USTA will try to get the ratings out as soon as they can, it likely won't be today.  In the past, I recall a notice showing up on TennisLink indicating when they planned to publish and I do not see that yet, so either they don't know for sure or are choosing not to share and keep us in suspense.

I'll post more as I learn more as well as soon as I see any new ratings published.

Update: As of 10am PDT on 11/28, my LC informed captains that National plans to publish the ratings this Thursday 12/1.  She emphasized it is a planned date and could change and she does not know what time on Thursday.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Are you ready for 2016 USTA year-end NTRP ratings? Teams are forming now for 2017!

Thanksgiving has passed and that means we now anxiously await year-end NTRP ratings to be released by the USTA as they are traditionally published this week.

I would expect them to be released on Monday, but a few players from sections other than my own have told me they heard it will be later in the week.  I'd still expect them earlier than later though.

And this is important in many sections as teams may begin playing their 2017 season right away in January, so teams are forming now and recruiting is taking place.  In fact, in my area (Pacific Northwest, Northwest Washington) our team forms are due in one week, so even if ratings are out on Monday we don't even have a full week to make sure a team can be fielded, and those players bumped up or down may be in hot demand or have to find a new team to play with.

Stay tuned to this blog or the NTRP Ratings Facebook page as I'll announce as soon as I hear/see ratings are out and follow that up with a variety of analysis on the year-end ratings and what we can tell from them.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Happy Thanksgiving, another Black Friday sale on Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports!

It is Thanksgiving, that means the USTA will be publishing 2016 year-end ratings soon, and as I did last year, I'm offering some discounts on Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports Friday the 25th through Sunday the 27th.

Not only does a report give you a very good idea of where your rating will end up, but also shows a bevy of statistics for your 2016 season including a chart showing match by match how each match rated and affected your dynamic rating, plus you get a partner report showing how your matches rated when playing with your different doubles partners.

This year, I am again offering discounts on new individual reports of 25% off and new team reports of 33%.  And if you have the need for a custom report for recruiting, I'll give discounts on those too.

Sunday the 27th will come soon, so don't delay in requesting a report.  Contact me if interested (ratings@teravation.net), and have a great Thanksgiving weekend!

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Predicted bump statistics for USTA League 2016 year-end ratings

Year-end ratings for 2016 are due soon from the USTA, but as a little preview, here are what my estimated ratings predict will happen regarding bumps up and down by level.

At the 2.5 level, I have 32% of players being bumped up and 68% staying 2.5s.

For the 3.0s, just under 5% will be bumped down, 18% should be bumped up, and the remaining 77% stay the same.

The 3.5s are less volatile with 84% staying the same, but still more bumps up than down, 9% to 7%.

The 4.0 level has more bump downs than up, 13% to 4%, with 83% staying the same.

At 4.5, just over 2% should be bumped up and a whopping 21% bumped down, 77% staying the same.  Personally, I doubt the USTA will let this happen and will make adjustments to keep more up as they want to avoid a glut of players at 4.0.

When ratings come out, I'll report back.

Monday, November 21, 2016

There is still time to get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report for 2016

It is almost Thanksgiving and Adult and Mixed Nationals are complete for 2016.  That means the USTA will be publishing ratings soon.  Specifically, I expect they'll be published the Monday or Tuesday after Thanksgiving.

But if you are curious about where you'll end up and can't wait, or perhaps more importantly you want to see far more detail than the USTA will give you into why your rating is where it is, or how close you are to the top or bottom of your level, there is still time to get an Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Report for 2016.

Getting a report now includes my year-end calculations which factor in playoff results through Nationals.  Yes, my reports always include all relevant playoff matches played through Nationals including giving them extra weight as part of the year-end calculations.  If this isn't done, the calculated rating simply can't be accurate.

Plus, I just updated what is included in an individual report with more detail in the chart and summary.  These details will be included in all reports going forward.

Contact me if interested in a report.

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Individual Estimated Dynamic NTRP Rating Reports updated with more detailed information

I'm always looking to improve the reports I generate, and I just added some more details to the individual report format.

See the example report for all the details, but here is a summary of what is new.

First, the chart has more details in it more clearly identifying different rounds of playoffs and showing wins and losses in the chart.

In the chart above this player's local playoff matches are annotated with an L, their Sectionals matches with an S, and their Nationals matches an N.  If they had played in a Districts/States/Regionals match, they would have been annotated with a D.  The matches they won are indicated with a 4-pointed star and their losses with a triangle.  These additions allow you to get a more complete view of a season by identifying matches more easily.

Next, the summary stats that are shown now not only show the average match rating in singles vs doubles, but also split it out by level.  So you can clearly see if playing up is helping or hurting your rating, or how your results compare in the 18+/40+ leagues vs 55+ if you play 55+.

These additions will be part of all reports I generate going forward.  Contact me at ratings@teravation.net if you are interested in a report, or if you've gotten one before, I can always do an update for you.

And if you have any suggestions on what to include in any of my reports, let me know.

2016 USTA League Nationals are complete - Southern is Section of the Year

I'm delinquent in writing about this, but the last Mixed Nationals finished last weekend and with them, Nationals are complete for 2016.

Several sections did well in Mixed, notably Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Northern Cal, Southern, Southern Cal, and Texas.  But Southern was clear and away the best winning four of the nine titles and nearly doubling up the points on second place Northern Cal.

Couple that with Southern running away with 18+ and doing well in 40+ and 55+, and it appears Southern can take home being my unofficial "Section of the Year".  Southern finished a close second to Southern Cal last year but takes it all this year.

Monday, November 7, 2016

The first 2017 USTA League Mixed National Champs are Crowned

With the Adult (Men's/Women's) Nationals complete, the first of two weekends of Mixed Nationals was played this weekend with four champions crowned.

In the 18 & over division, the 7.0 level was won by Southern 2-1 over Middle States, after each had won their semis 2-1.  Texas took third with, yes, a 2-1 win over Midwest.

The 9.0 level of 18 & over was won by Southwest in a 3-0 win over Mid-Atlantic, but two courts were match tie-breaks.  Northern California took third with a 2-1 win over Southern.

The 40 & over 6.0 level was won by Southern over Southern California 2-1, both won courts in match tie-breaks.  Midwest beat Northern California for third.

The 8.0 level of 40+ found Southern beating Florida 2-1 for the title while Texas beat Hawaii for third.

The Southern section is off to a quick start with three titles and another semi-final appearance!

Mixed Nationals wraps up this coming weekend as the 18+ and 40+ divisions play the other levels.

Friday, November 4, 2016

2016 USTA League Mixed Nationals is underway

With Adult Nationals complete for 2016, Mixed Nationals commences this weekend.

Arizona is the home for Mixed Nationals with the 18 & over 7.0 and 9.0 levels taking place in Tucson and the 40 & over 6.0 and 8.0 levels being played in Surprise.

Good luck to all!

Monday, October 31, 2016

USTA League rule changes for 2017

Every year, the USTA publishes a new set of regulations and usually makes a few tweaks or changes to some of the rules.  Here is a summary of what is changing for 2017.

To start, and this is not new news, but to reiterate, Early Start Ratings are gone.  They were not published in 2016 for 2017 early start leagues and players simply played on early start teams based on their 2015 year-end NTRP level.  However, these players will not be eligible to play at Nationals at that level if they are bumped up at the end of 2016.  Each section gets to decide how long a bumped up player may continue at the lower level and some will let them play through Sectionals and others won't.

Something I've written about before are the rules regarding seniors for being (or not as the case may be) bumped up.  The prior rules said players 65 year of age or more simply wouldn't be bumped up.  This was a bit crazy, it was arguably discrimination to not allow a player to have their improvement be recognized and thankfully for 2017 this has changed.  Now players will be bumped up, but allowed to appeal down rather than simply not being bumped up.  Note if they do appeal, they will be subject to strikes and disqualification now.

Also regarding appeals, in the past, anyone that played in a championship (playoffs, i.e. Districts, States, Sectionals, Nationals) was not eligible to appeal their rating down.  The rule has now changed to say that only players that play at Nationals will be ineligible to appeal down.  Players that played in earlier stages of playoffs will be eligible to appeal down, but of course must meet the appeal criteria for it to be granted.

Note that I gleaned these changes from a draft of the 2017 regulations from earlier this year, so this is not the final regulations, but it is the currently linked document on TennisLink.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

What sections did the best at 2016 USTA League Adult Nationals?

With the completion of Adult Nationals, we can now look at how the sections did.  I've kept track of of who won by division, gender, and level and tallied up points based on the semi-finalists and how they finished.

Southern easily won the 18 & over division more than doubling up the second place Pacific Northwest section.  And they did it in both men and women with two titles each.  Caribbean, Texas, Intermountain, and NorCal also did well.

In 40 & over, Florida accumulated the most points with three titles, with Middle States and Pacific Northwest a few points back.  Southern, Southwest, and Texas also did well.

The 55 & over division found Southern Cal running away with the points title nearly tripling Florida and Southern due to their four titles.

Putting it all together, the three leaders in each division also had the highest totals, Southern well ahead of Southern Cal and Florida very close.  Pacific Northwest and Texas complete the top-5 just a bit back.

The USTA uses the results of Nationals to try to normalize ratings between levels, so it is often the case that players from sections that do well get bumped up more than those that didn't.  So this may be an early warning that Southern, Florida, and Southern Cal may see a lot of bumps up this year.

And this weekend's new National Champions are?

The last weekend of Adult Nationals is complete and here are the new champs.

The 18 & over 4.5 women's champ is Intermountain with a 3-2 win over Southern, Caribbean winning third with a 4-1 win over Northern.

The 18 & over 4.5 men was won by Eastern with a tight 3-2 win over Southern Cal, third was won by Southwest with a 4-1 win over Mid-Atlantic.

The 40 & over 4.0 women found the Pacific Northwest beating Mid-Atlantic 3-2 for the title, while Middle States beat Northern Cal 3-2 for third.

The 40 & over 4.0 men's title was won by Florida with a 3-2 win over Middle States, Eastern took third beating Hawaii 3-2.

The 55 & over 7.0 women's champ is Southern Cal with a 2-1 win over Eastern, Florida beating Missouri Valley 2-1 for third.

The 55 & over 7.0 men saw Northern beat Southern Cal for the title 2-1 while Texas beat New England for third 3-0.

The 55 & over 9.0 women found Southern beating Texas 2-1 for the title and Eastern beating Missouri Valley 3-0 for third.

The 55 & over 9.0 men's title was won by Southern Cal over Mid-Atlantic 3-0 and New England beat Northern Cal 3-0 for third.

Congrats to all!

Saturday, October 29, 2016

This is the last weekend for matches to count for 2016

A common question I get this time of year is to ask when the cut-off for matches to count for year-end ratings is.  Well, the clock is ticking down, as this weekend is it!

I mention this in questions 4 and 5 on my FAQ, but here is how it works.

The USTA year typically ends when the Adult Nationals are completed.  This is normally the last weekend of October or the first weekend of November.  They use the last weekend of Nationals as the year-end calculations and benchmarking, and any adjustments they elect to make are based off the results at Nationals.

Now, the actually year-end ratings are typically released the week after Thanksgiving, I would expect November 28th or 29th this year.  Why the gap between the cut-off date and the release?  The USTA does need to perform their year-end calculations and I'm sure there is review done and consideration of doing any regional or national adjustments to ratings, and this takes a little time.

What the USTA does to make things a little interesting, is to associate the year-end ratings with a date of 12/31/2016, i.e. if you look up someone's rating on TennisLink and it is a year-end rating, it always has a 12/31 date.  That makes sense in that the rating is for the end of the 2016 year, but the rating comes out a month or so before that and is for matches played through a month earlier than that!  And matches played in November and December of this year will count towards the 2017 year-end rating.

Note that I don't think the Mixed exclusive ratings follow quite the same schedule.  They are typically released at the same time, the week after Thanksgiving, but their cut-off date is likely the end of Mixed Nationals which would be November 13th.  This only makes sense since you'd want Nationals results to be included!

So if you have a match this weekend or are playing at Nationals, make the most of it!  And of course, if you don't want to wait for the USTA to release ratings, I can do a report for you giving you an accurate estimate of where your year-end rating will end up.  Contact me if interested.

Friday, October 28, 2016

A preview of the last weekend of 2016 USTA League Adult Nationals

This weekend finds the last Adult Nationals for the 2016 USTA League being contested, here is a preview of a few levels.

As usual, the seeding I mention is all done based on the top-8 averages from my flight reports.  And I can still generate these for any teams/individuals that are interested.

The 40 & over 4.0 women has a tough flight in flight 4 having the 1, 3, 5, and 14 seeds, flights 2 and 3 are similar having the 4, 6, 7, 12 and 2, 8, 10, 15 seeds respectively, and flight 1 is the weakest with the 9, 11, 13, 16, and 17 seeds.

The USTA actually ended up with pretty balanced flights for the 40 & over 4.0 men.  Flight 5 is probably the toughest having the 1, 2, 8, 11, and 14 seeds, but flight 7 isn't far behind with the 3, 5, 9, and 17 seeds, flight 6 just a tick back with the 4, 10, 13, and 15, and flight 8 the weakest but still pretty balanced with 6, 7, 12, and 16.

The 18 & over division is playing the 4.5 level and the women's flights are pretty balanced, flight 3 perhaps being the toughest overall with the 1, 6, 8, and 11 seeds, but flight 1 being top-heavy with the 2, 3, 12, 15, and 16 seeds.  But flight 2 has the 5, 7, 9, and 13 seeds while flight 4 has the 4, 10, 14, and 17 seeds.

The 4.5 men are also reasonably balanced, but flight 8 will be hard fought at the top with the 1, 3, 12, and 13 seeds, flights 6 and 7 are similar with the 2, 6, 15, 17 and 4, 5, 9, 14 seeds.  Flight 5 is perhaps the weakest but very competitive with the 7, 8, 10, 11, and 16 seeds.  Just 0.06 covers the top-8 averages of the flight 5 teams.

Good luck to all!

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

The last weekend of 2016 USTA League Adult Nationals is nearly here - 18 & over 4.5, 40 & over 4.0, 55 & over 7.0 and 9.0

As we get to the end of October, we also get to the last weekend of Adult Nationals.  The 18 & over 4.5 men and women are in Rancho Mirage while the 40 & over 4.0 men and women are in La Quinta.  Arizona is where the 55 & over 7.0 and 9.0 levels wrap up in Surprise.

While the matches commence in just another day, it isn't too late to get reports to help scout opponents or plan your line-ups.  Contact me if interested.

On a personal note, my 40+ 4.0 team was beaten 3-2 at Sectionals by the PNW team headed to Nationals.  I'll be following them to see how they do and think "what if we'd won that last tie-break" :)

Good luck to all playing this weekend!

Monday, October 24, 2016

2016 USTA League Nationals Champions Crowned in 40 & over and 55 & over

Another weekend of Nationals is complete, just one to go for the Adult divisions.

This weekend, the 40 & over 3.5 men and women played along with the 4.5+ level, plus the 55 & over started with the 6.0 and 8.0 levels.

The 3.5 women saw Florida take the title beating Southwest 4-1, Southern taking third over Midwest.

For the 3.5 men, Hawaii beat Pacific Northwest 3-2, both making the final with 3-2 wins, Intermountain taking third over Southern.

The 4.5+ women saw a chorus of 3-2 wins with Southern beating New England, and Florida beating Middle States for third.

The 4.5+ men's champion is Southwest who beat Texas 4-1, Southern Cal beating Northern for third.

The 55+ 6.0 women's champ is Southern who beat Pacific Northwest 2-1, New England beating Florida for third.

The 6.0 men had Southern Cal beat Missouri Valley for the title 3-0, and Northern beat Midwest 3-0 for third.

The 8.0 women saw Intermountain win over Florida 2-1, and Southern Cal take New England 2-1 for third.

The 8.0 men's result had Southern Cal beat Midwest 3-0 and Florida beat Middle States 3-0 for third.

Congrats to all!

Thursday, October 20, 2016

2016 USTA League 40 & over Nationals continue with 3.5 and 4.5+ levels in the California desert and 55+ in Arizona

There are just two more weekends of Adult Nationals for 2016 and this weekend has the 40+ 3.5 and 4.5+ levels playing in Rancho Mirage and La Quinta.  Meanwhile the 55+ 6.0 and 8.0 levels are playing in Surprize, AZ.

Here is a quick preview of the 3.5 level.

The 3.5 women has flight 3 being the toughest with the #1, #2, #5, and #11 seeded teams.  The other flights are more balanced with flight 4 having the #3, #8, #9, and #16, flight 2 the #6, #7, #12, and #17, and flight 1 the #4, #10, #13, #14, and #15 teams.  Will all the top seeds make it through?  With the weakness of flight 1, could a bottom third team make the semis?

For the 3.5 men, flight 5 is by far the toughest with the #1, #3, #4, #6, and #14 seeded teams.  Not only do these teams have to play four matches, they have to do so against the toughest opponents.  Flight 8 is the next toughest with the #2, #5, #7, and #13 teams, which leaves flights 6 and 7 the easiest with no team seeded higher than #8 and flight 7 having #16 and #17.

Good luck to all!

Monday, October 17, 2016

Details on USTA League 55 & over and Mixed Nationals now available

The USTA has updated their Nationals pages with the flights for 55+ and Mixed Nationals that are a few weeks away.  See my Nationals Schedule page with links to the PDFs.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

And this weekend's 2016 USTA League 40+ 3.0 National Champions are ... Florida for the women and Middle States for the men

Another weekend of USTA League Nationals is in the books and we have the first two 40 & over National Champions crowned.  The 3.0 men and women played this weekend in Tucson and there was some good competition.

For the women, the semis found two close matches with Pacific Northwest beating Missouri Valley 3-2 and Florida beating Texas 3-2.  Both were minor upsets, Florida being ever so slight underdogs on 2D and 3D and PNW pulling an upset on 1D.  The final found Florida winning 3-2 as well, this one having one upset each way, and Texas getting third.

The men's semis found Intermountain pulling two upsets to win 4-1 over Florida and Middle States getting walloped on both singles courts but winning the doubles to win 3-2 over Texas.  Middle States used the same tactic in the final winning 3-2 all on the doubles courts and Texas getting third.

I've updated the tally of 2016 National Champions if you want to follow along.

2016 USTA League 40 & over 3.0 Nationals semi-finalists are set

The 2016 USTA League 40 & over 3.0 Nationals are taking place this weekend, and the semi-finalists are set.

For the women, Missouri Valley pulled a minor upset winning flight 1, and will play a Pacific Northwest team that also pulled a minor upset to make the semis.  Flight 2 winner was also an upset in Florida, and the pre-Nationals favorite Texas will face them in their semi being the only favorite to make it through.

The current ratings say the finalists should be Missouri Valley and Texas with Texas taking the title.

For the men, Florida won flight 5 in an upset and they will face Intermountain who won flight 7 as the favorite.  The other semi will see Texas play Middle States both favorites in their flights.

Texas remains the overall top seed in the current ratings and is expected to be in the final against Intermountain, but both matches are expected to be close so it could come down to who plays and match-ups.

Will Texas bring in two 40 & over titles to give the state the early lead in the 40+ standings?

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Checking USTA League self-rated men by section - Who sandbags or overrates?

I wrote a few days ago about trends with self-rated players being bumped up or down at a national level and also took a look at the trends for each section for the women.  Now it is time to look at the men in each section.

As a reminder, these charts are showing the number of players by level that self-rated in 2015 and stayed the same at year-end as well as are bumped up and down.  On each bar the number shows the percentage for each category by level.

As a refresher to start, here is the national chart for the men:

We see the trend of a lot more bumps up than down at the 2.5 thru 3.5 levels, and then it becomes balanced at 4.0 and a slight bias towards bump downs above that.  Based on this, one could observe that perhaps at lower levels, the men tend to underrate or sandbag a bit.

But do these same trends hold true at the section level?  Here are the same stats for each section in reverse alphabetical order.


Texas looks a lot like the National chart, except they have a few more bump ups at 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5.


At the 2.5 and 3.0 levels, Southwest pushing things a bit more with over 90% and 40% respectively being bumped up.


Southern actually has more balance at 3.5 than National averages or the two other sections above.

Southern Cal:

SoCal doesn't have a lot of players self-rate at 2.5 or 3.0, but a huge percentage of them get bumped up.  Do they just improve a lot playing in the California sun or is there some sandbagging going on?

Pacific Northwest:

PNW has looks like others and National at 2.5 and 3.0, but actually has more 3.5s bumped down than up!


This looks similar to National and others, except that there are more self-rated 4.0 men than any other level and more than twice as many were bumped up than down.


This looks a lot like the National chart, nothing really stands out.

New England:

Hardly any 2.5s aren't bumped up, but otherwise quite similar.

Missouri Valley:

Very similar to the National chart.


Again, very similar to the National chart.  Are men this consistent across sections unlike the women?

Middle States:

For the first time, more 2.5s stay 2.5 than are bumped up.  Otherwise, similar to National.


The 3.5 men are more balanced than more others, and a few more 4.0s are bumped down.


Intermountain men are balanced at 3.5 and quite a few more 4.0s are bumped down than up.


We finally have one that is significantly different.  All 2.5s are bumped up and nearly 2/3 of 3.0s and nearly a third of 3.5s and virtual no-one is bumped down!


Sort of back to normal, but there are a lot of 2.5s and 3.0s bumped up.


Eastern is also fairly normal although nearly all 2.5s are bumped up.


Similar to the Caribbean women, a lot of players self-rate at 2.5, and a ton of 2.5 and 3.0 self-rated men do get bumped up.  It is no surprise they do so well at Nationals at these levels.

Remarkably, the men do not show as much variation by section as the women do.  Apart from Hawaii and Caribbean, most look similar to the National averages.

What do you think?