Saturday, December 31, 2011

2012 Rose Bowl Preview - Oregon to win, Wisconsin to cover

The Rose Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Wisconsin against Oregon. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Wisconsin is ranked #8 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 82.939 against a schedule strength of 66.590. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good other than mid-season, their worst game being at Ohio State and best game being against Nebraska. They are 5-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 3-5 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



Oregon is ranked #4 by the computer with a 11-2 record and a rating of 85.534 against a schedule strength of 69.883. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were good to great but falter in a couple games, their worst game being against Southern Cal and best game being at Stanford. They are 4-2-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-3-1 picking their games against the spread and 6-2 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through Oregon State and 3 degrees as follows:


2 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Minnesota-->Southern_Cal-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Nebraska-->Washington-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Ohio_State-->Colorado-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Arizona-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Arizona_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->California-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Stanford-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->UCLA-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Washington-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->Washington_St-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->UNLV-->Nevada-->Oregon
3 Wisconsin-->UNLV-->Washington_St-->Oregon


Against Oregon State, Wisconsin won 35-0 at home and Oregon won 49-21 at home.

The spread is Oregon by 6.5 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.6. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.Wisconsin +6.5 over *. Oregon 2.6 3.9 0.592 0.637

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment