2024 Seattle Area 40 & Over Playoffs - Any 4-court 2-2 ties?

The past two weekends saw the Seattle area 40 & Over local playoffs take place.  While the National format for 40 & Over has gone back to a 5-court format (1 singles and 4 doubles), the Pacific Northwest Section is sticking with the prior 4-court format for this year at least.

That means we continue to live with the possibility of 2-2 ties, and with playoffs, important matches that decide who will advance are being decided by the tie-breakers.  How many did we have the past few weekends?

There were a total of 46 team matches played over the two weekends, and of those, 14 (30%) were tied on courts.  Of those 14, five (36%) were tied on sets.

Taking a look at those five:

• Women's 3.0 - Each team won a match in straights and a match in a super tie-break.  There was a single game difference, a 6-2 vs a 6-3 set.  Had both of those been 6-3, it would have gone to the court 1 doubles winner and the team win would have swapped.
• Women's 3.0 - All courts in straights, two for each team, singles won 6-1,6-1 which resulted in a 6 game difference.
• Women's 4.0 - All courts in straights, two for each team, one team (A) had a 6-1 set, the other (B) had a 6-0 set, but the 6-0 set wasn't enough for team B as they had a 7-6 set vs team A having a 6-3 set to counter it, one game better for team A and the win.  Had team B won one more game, it would have gone to the court 1 doubles winner and team B would have won.
• Women's 4.0 - Each team won a match in straights and a match in a super tie-break.  Singles was won 6-1,6-1 by one team and that contributed to a three game difference giving them the win and a spot at Sectionals.
• Men's 4.0 - Each team won a match in straights and a match in a super tie-break.  Team A had an advantage in the straight set comparison being a game better, but team B won a 6-0 set and a 6-1 set to contribute to a four game difference and the team win.  This match decided the wildcard winner and a spot at Sectionals.

Some very close matches, two were just one game away from the result being reversed.  And two of these 2-2 ties were for a spot to advance to Sectionals.

Sectionals will continue to use the 4-court format, we'll see how things go there.

Simulating 2023/2024 USTA League Tri-Level National Invitational - 3.5/4.0/4.5 Women

This weekend is the 2023/2024 Tri-Level Invitational and this year I'm giving my simulations a go.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

As I did for Nationals in the Fall, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.  Doing Tri-Level is new for me so we'll see how this goes.

On to the projections from the simulation, continuing with the 3.5/4.0/4.5 Women after doing the Men a bit ago.

Teams: 16 (Caribbean missing)

Chance of 3 undefeated: 9%

Chance of 4 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 81% / 4

Favorites: Mid-Atlantic, New England, Northern

Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal, SoCal, Texas

Fringe: Intermountain, Florida, Southern

One team is a favorite over the others and the only team forecast to go 4-0, but 3-1 and perhaps even 2-2 could make the semis as it is competitive behind the big favorite.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

Simulating 2023/2024 USTA League Tri-Level National Invitational - 3.5/4.0/4.5 Men

This weekend is the 2023/2024 Tri-Level Invitational and this year I'm giving my simulations a go.

I've been doing these simulations since 2018 and have found that the four semi-finalists are usually in the top six to seven projected teams, and more often than you might think, I project the four semi-finalists perfectly.  There are surprises sometimes and a mid-pack team overachieves and advances, that is why the matches are played on the courts and not on a computer.  Still, it is interesting to do these simulations and see how the projections do.

Why do these simulations you ask?  The primary reason is that the format for USTA League Nationals is now a flight-less random round-robin where each team plays four other random opponents.  This introduces significant variations in schedule strength, the possibility of an undefeated team not making the top-4, and teams vying for the top-4 perhaps not having played head-to-head and unfortunate tie-breakers being used.  The simulations aim to educate folks on how it all works and look at what may happen.  Also see this write-up for some things to know about Nationals.

As I did for Nationals in the Fall, I'll be primarily just giving the data from the simulation and not writing a bunch of words.  Most of it is self-explanatory, but the favorites and contenders will be listed in alphabetical order.  If you want more details, I can do my simulation report for you.  Doing Tri-Level is new for me so we'll see how this goes.

On to the projections from the simulation, starting with the 3.5/4.0/4.5 Men.

Note: This was updated an hour after originally posting with improvements to the simulation

Teams: 17

Chance of 3 undefeated: 15%

Chance of 4 undefeated: 3%

Chance of 5 undefeated: <1%

Chance of 6 undefeated: <1%

Chance of tie for last spot / most likely size: 90% / 4

Favorites: Caribbean, Mid-Atlantic, MOValley, SoCal, Southern

Contenders: Middle States, Midwest, NorCal

Fringe: Texas

This looks fairly competitive with five teams having a >50% of making the semis, and three more contending for a spot.  And no team has a most likely record of 4-0 and six having 3-1 records most likely.  With just three courts a match, the chances of tie-breakers going to sets and games is pretty high.

For those interested, I offer a variety of reports to make Nationals more fun and help captains prepare.  I have a Simulation Report that has all of the details of the simulation including the average ratings for each team, each team's schedule strength, the most likely record for each team, and the chance of each possible record for each team.  I also offer reports to help teams scout opponents in more detail, both a Flight Report with full roster averages, top-8 averages and played by court averages for each team, as well as full Team Reports with detailed ratings for each rostered player and stats who who plays with who and on which court and how they do together.  Contact me if interested in any of these reports.

2023 Tri-Level Nationals is in San Diego this weekend!

USTA League Nationals are generally all held in October and November each year, but several of the Nationals events find themselves being played early in the year.  One of those is Tri-Level Nationals.

Technically, the event is called the Tom Fey Tri-Level Nat'l Invitational as for many years, it wasn't a USTA sponsored event but instead was run by Tom Fey, the Tennis Director at Indian Wells Tennis Garden for many years, and done as an Invitational.  Tom passed away far too soon a few years ago, and the event now bears his name, but now the USTA runs the it as a National Invitational.

The timing of the event remains the same, right around the time of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, but this year it is in San Diego.  Also, for many years the Invitational invited teams playing in the 3.5/4.0/4.5 division to play, but now the USTA holds the event for three different divisions for both genders, 3.0/3.5/4.0, 3.5/4.0/4.5, and 4.0/4.5/5.0.

The stature of the event has grown as a result with teams from all of the sections participating in at least one event.

• Women's 3.0/3.5/4.0 has 14 teams (Hawaii, Intermountain, and Midwest missing)
• Men's 3.0/3.5/4.0 has 14 teams (Hawaii, Caribbean, and Intermountain missing)
• Women's 3.5/4.0/4.5 has 16 teams (Caribbean missing)
• Men's 3.5/4.0/4.5 has the full 17 teams
• Women's 4.0/4.5/5.0 has 9 teams
• Men's 4.0/4.5/5.0 has 9 teams

That is a whopping 79 teams all playing over the weekend, which it appears necessitates some different scheduling to what we normally see for a Nationals.  Normally it is a Friday to Sunday event, but this weekend has:

• 3.5/4.0/4.5 division being played 3/7 thru 3/9
• 4.0/4.5/5.0 division being played 3/8 thru 3/10
• 3.0/3.5/4.0 division being played 3/9 thru 3/11

Even with the staggered schedule, it is too big for one venue so the event is being co-hosted by Barnes Tennis Center and Balboa Tennis Club.

Given all the rain in California this year, a weather check is in order and the start of the event looks in a little danger as there are thunderstorms forecast for the 6th with hail possible and rain showers lingering into the morning of the 7th, but after that all looks fine with cloudy to partly cloudy skies the rest of the days.

Good luck to all the teams!