Saturday, December 31, 2011

2012 TicketCity Bowl Preview - Houston to win, Penn State to cover

The TicketCity Bowl will take place on 1/2 pitting Houston against Penn State. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Houston is ranked #20 by the computer with a 12-1 record and a rating of 76.554 against a schedule strength of 61.391. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty good all year, improving towards the end until their last game, their worst game being against Southern Miss and best game being at Tulsa. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



Penn State is ranked #28 by the computer with a 9-3 record and a rating of 74.151 against a schedule strength of 69.941. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being at Wisconsin and best game being at Northwestern. They are 2-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 5-3 picking winners in their games.



The teams are not separated by 2 degrees but are by 3 degrees as follows:


3 Houston-->North_Texas-->Alabama-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->North_Texas-->Indiana-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->Rice-->Northwestern-->Penn_State
3 Houston-->Rice-->Purdue-->Penn_State


The spread is Houston by 6 and the computer agrees but by less picking them by 2.4. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

..Penn State +6.0 over * Houston 2.4 3.6 0.584 0.625

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.

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