Monday, August 31, 2009

2009 NFL Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for the NFL.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no real surprise that Pittsburgh is projected to have the best record at 12-4.  And there is an 18.6% chance they finish 13-3.  And if you are wondering about an undefeated season, the computer gives that a 0.5% chance.  It is a bit of a surprise that the best record from the NFC is only 10-6 and that is for Philly and the Giants.

Detroit should be glad that they (and no other team) are projected to be winless.  In fact Detroit is projected to have 3 wins.  This is indicative of the NFL's scheduling giving Detroit an easier schedule.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Pittsburgh12-423.118.620.5
Baltimore11-522.320.917.5
Tennessee10-620.920.715.9
Philadelphia10-620.720.216.2
Indianapolis10-621.119.317.6
NY Giants10-620.718.118.2
Minnesota9-720.820.815.7
San Diego9-720.620.316.0
Arizona9-720.020.015.5
New England9-720.119.016.6
Atlanta9-720.216.619.0
Green Bay9-720.416.019.9
Carolina9-719.815.719.4
Chicago9-720.215.520.1
New Orleans8-820.019.515.9
Dallas8-819.919.216.1
Houston8-820.419.116.8
Washington8-820.916.220.4
NY Jets8-819.815.819.3
Tampa Bay8-819.715.819.1
Miami8-819.915.719.6
San Francisco7-921.419.118.0
Seattle7-920.516.120.0
Cincinnati6-1021.320.316.7
Jacksonville6-1021.120.016.8
Cleveland6-1020.620.016.0
Oakland6-1020.919.517.0
Buffalo6-1020.619.416.7
Denver6-1021.118.518.3
St Louis5-1121.518.119.3
Kansas City5-1122.017.920.3
Detroit3-1324.522.617.8

2009 College Football Projected Records

As promised, here are the projected records for the upcoming 2009 season for college football.  These projections are based on the final ratings from last year and each teams schedule this year.  Yes, I know each team is not going to be the same as last year, but it is still interesting to see what they project.  I will update these projections each week.

In the table below, the record is the most likely record the team will end up with, % chance is the chance of that record occurring, and then the % chance of a record 1 game better and 1 game worse is listed.

It is no surprise that Florida is given the best chance to be undefeated, but it is a bit of a surprise that they are the only team.  There are 6 teams projected to have 1 loss and 4 of those have a greater than 20% of doing 1 game better so it is likely that one of them might.  And there is a 30% chance that Florida loses a game so that isn't a slam dunk.

And on the opposite side of things, no team is presently projected to go winless.  Washington should appreciate that!

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Florida12-070.00.025.8
Boise St12-141.327.523.5
Penn State11-140.835.818.5
Southern Cal11-138.922.926.5
Oklahoma11-139.321.727.3
Alabama11-140.319.028.5
Texas11-136.313.133.3
TCU10-232.432.216.8
Utah10-237.431.517.9
Mississippi10-232.329.518.9
Ohio State10-239.621.425.9
Ball St10-227.815.727.4
Rutgers9-328.323.121.5
Texas Tech9-330.820.824.9
West Virginia9-328.120.423.6
Missouri9-328.320.323.8
Georgia9-329.917.926.9
Iowa9-329.717.926.9
Oregon9-328.217.826.1
Pittsburgh9-326.817.625.0
Oregon St8-429.228.017.4
Troy8-428.426.818.2
Oklahoma St8-429.026.418.8
Northwestern8-431.425.520.9
Michigan St8-427.024.818.7
Buffalo8-427.124.618.9
California8-427.524.419.4
Virginia Tech8-426.023.818.8
Cincinnati8-429.523.321.9
North Carolina8-426.623.120.0
Arizona8-430.322.823.0
Tulsa8-427.619.624.0
Nebraska8-429.318.926.1
Florida St8-426.418.224.3
Western Michigan8-425.917.524.5
Brigham Young8-427.017.425.4
LSU8-435.017.328.5
Boston College8-425.917.125.1
Clemson8-424.416.723.8
Nevada8-426.016.125.7
Navy8-529.425.719.3
Houston7-526.025.716.7
Southern Miss7-525.824.018.1
Rice7-526.523.819.0
Kansas7-529.523.521.7
Wake Forest7-524.822.918.2
Northern Illinois7-526.222.020.4
Connecticut7-526.321.820.8
Air Force7-530.821.524.5
South Florida7-527.221.521.9
Wisconsin7-526.121.221.2
Temple7-527.319.923.4
Georgia Tech7-524.219.820.8
Notre Dame7-525.818.423.6
East Carolina7-526.118.323.9
Hawaii7-624.821.919.2
Bowling Green6-626.726.316.8
Louisiana-Lafayette6-626.025.317.1
Arkansas St6-626.724.918.1
Akron6-628.224.819.3
Tennessee6-630.124.720.9
Fresno St6-628.624.320.0
South Carolina6-627.223.619.7
Florida Atlantic6-627.323.020.5
Arizona St6-630.522.823.1
North Carolina St6-626.721.721.2
Kentucky6-632.121.425.2
Vanderbilt6-628.620.923.8
Colorado St6-626.518.923.8
Miami FL6-627.218.724.7
Virginia6-624.618.622.3
Louisiana Tech6-629.218.026.9
UTEP6-624.717.823.2
Arkansas6-630.317.528.0
Stanford6-627.117.325.9
Marshall6-625.216.924.6
Kansas St5-726.726.616.3
Baylor5-729.026.018.5
Auburn5-727.325.317.9
Illinois5-728.124.219.8
Central Michigan5-732.524.022.5
Maryland5-723.523.416.1
Duke5-725.723.018.8
New Mexico5-726.222.120.4
Florida Int'l5-727.621.422.4
Purdue5-725.621.420.5
Middle Tennessee St5-726.320.921.8
Minnesota5-727.120.722.6
Louisiana-Monroe5-729.420.524.7
Colorado5-727.620.023.6
Utah St5-726.718.924.1
Memphis5-726.117.425.2
Ohio U.5-728.117.027.4
Central Florida5-725.816.525.8
Michigan4-829.729.315.5
UCLA4-828.724.120.2
San Jose St4-829.822.423.1
San Diego St4-828.022.321.7
Army4-831.321.824.4
Louisville4-830.121.424.3
UNLV4-829.321.423.7
Kent St4-829.521.224.2
Alabama-Birmingham4-826.320.722.0
Texas A&M4-829.720.325.0
Iowa St4-829.019.825.2
New Mexico St4-928.318.326.7
Mississippi St3-930.325.919.4
Toledo3-927.623.819.7
SMU3-932.720.227.4
Indiana3-929.718.028.6
Eastern Michigan3-927.817.627.1
Wyoming3-927.917.327.5
Syracuse2-1030.028.915.6
Tulane2-1030.025.619.5
Washington St2-1032.025.121.5
North Texas2-1031.923.124.0
Western Kentucky2-1031.422.824.1
Idaho2-1030.919.228.6
Washington2-1044.116.131.2
Miami OH1-1140.625.124.5

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Final 2008 NFL Ratings

Before we start the 2009 NFL season, let's take a look back at 2008.

Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl last year but my ratings insist that Baltimore was the best team due to a strong finish to the season and their loss to Pittsburgh in the playoffs being on the road. It doesn't pass my gut check but the computer's performance against the spread (see below) is hard to argue with.

For those interested in such things, my computer was a very good 152-107-5 against the spread in all the games I had spreads for.  Those games matching my best pick criteria were an outstanding 38-18-3.  And while only 9 games matched my "lock" criteria last year, those games did go 7-2.

Projections for 2009 based on these ratings coming soon.

RankTeamRatingRecordSchedule
RankTeamRatingRecordSchedule
1Baltimore88.75213-6-083.337
2Pittsburgh88.68615-4-083.027
3Philadelphia87.55811-7-182.823
4Tennessee86.79813-4-081.314
5NY Giants86.75912-5-082.292
6Indianapolis86.13512-5-082.296
7New England85.01811-5-080.165
8San Diego84.2049-9-081.310
9Carolina84.12112-5-081.130
10Atlanta83.89411-6-080.937
11Arizona83.51412-8-081.506
12Minnesota83.32410-7-081.711
13Dallas82.9029-7-082.385
14New Orleans82.7788-8-080.842
15Tampa Bay82.0069-7-080.783
16Miami81.97111-6-080.575
17Chicago81.7829-7-081.117
18Green Bay81.4806-10-081.114
19Houston81.3578-8-081.964
20NY Jets80.8459-7-080.034
21Washington80.7058-8-082.076
22San Francisco78.6497-9-080.330
23Buffalo78.4817-9-079.769
24Jacksonville77.9075-11-082.170
25Cincinnati77.5864-11-183.457
26Cleveland77.5114-12-083.489
27Oakland77.2915-11-081.305
28Denver77.1748-8-080.401
29Seattle76.9684-12-081.124
30Kansas City74.4502-14-081.302
31St Louis72.9682-14-081.761
32Detroit71.3690-16-082.345

Final 2008 College Football Ratings

Before we start the 2009 college football season, let's take a look back at 2008.

Florida won the national championship and my computer ultimately rated them #1, but there was plenty of fodder for those that felt USC or Texas deserved a shot in the championship game.  In fact, before the bowl games Oklahoma was my computer's clear #1 with Texas #2.  By the time of the BCS Championship game Florida was a close #2 and proved themselves the better team in the game.

For those interested in such things, my computer was 332-271-10 against the spread in all the games I had spreads for.  Those games matching my best pick criteria were an even better 51-25-1.

The ratings below will serve as the starting point for this coming season and for the sake of not having over 700 lines of teams, I've listed just the division I-A teams.

RankTeamRatingRecordSchedule
RankTeamRatingRecordSchedule
1Florida96.62013-175.935
2Oklahoma94.80212-276.260
3Southern Cal93.01112-174.821
4Texas92.28412-176.186
5Penn State88.83111-271.759
6Texas Tech86.17111-274.839
7Alabama85.98212-273.488
8Utah85.71413-071.052
9TCU85.56611-270.557
10Boise St85.29612-167.043
11Ohio State84.75210-373.539
12Mississippi83.9099-474.412
13Oregon83.83910-374.133
14Oklahoma St82.8929-473.682
15Missouri82.62910-473.631
16Georgia81.99810-375.391
17Florida St81.9669-472.291
18Iowa81.0189-471.045
19Virginia Tech80.69210-473.800
20Oregon St80.4989-475.851
21North Carolina80.3118-574.552
22California80.2859-473.659
23Arizona80.2328-570.608
24Nebraska80.1919-473.860
25Clemson79.5337-673.581
26Kansas78.7378-573.824
27Georgia Tech78.4829-473.041
28Boston College78.4329-573.519
29LSU78.1668-573.001
30West Virginia78.0979-471.934
31Pittsburgh77.9719-473.802
32Wake Forest77.8728-576.005
33Rutgers77.7118-569.954
34Michigan St77.3939-473.301
35South Carolina76.8627-676.301
36Brigham Young76.77910-369.479
37Miami FL76.6387-675.450
38Tulsa76.40111-365.488
39Cincinnati76.31511-371.261
40Connecticut75.6108-572.109
41Northwestern75.3749-470.477
42North Carolina St74.9706-775.656
43Virginia74.9105-777.459
44Vanderbilt74.8097-675.307
45Maryland74.7238-573.437
46Baylor74.4364-875.847
47Rice74.38610-367.841
48South Florida74.3568-570.339
49Ball St73.97812-263.590
50Notre Dame73.9147-672.127
51Navy73.4868-569.642
52Houston73.3168-567.531
53Tennessee73.1085-773.299
54Wisconsin73.1017-672.574
55Arizona St73.0545-772.744
56Duke72.7694-876.088
57Troy72.6868-565.148
58Arkansas72.4005-776.517
59Nevada72.3127-668.549
60Air Force72.3038-569.335
61Auburn72.2335-772.924
62Stanford72.2195-775.319
63East Carolina72.1949-570.620
64Southern Miss71.7487-668.492
65Kentucky71.3717-670.880
66Illinois70.5465-771.554
67Minnesota70.3057-670.283
68Buffalo70.1238-668.308
69Colorado69.5415-775.375
70Kansas St69.4345-771.767
71Purdue68.8744-872.917
72Western Michigan68.8359-465.216
73Colorado St68.8147-670.812
74Bowling Green68.6976-666.909
75Fresno St68.5967-668.133
76Temple67.9605-767.948
77New Mexico67.8834-871.432
78Hawaii67.7607-770.075
79Louisiana Tech67.6878-566.005
80UCLA67.1524-874.301
81UTEP67.0335-769.363
82Mississippi St66.9394-872.572
83Northern Illinois66.8606-764.166
84Central Michigan66.8398-566.182
85Texas A&M66.5374-875.003
86Michigan66.3113-973.223
87Louisville66.2855-768.127
88Louisiana-Lafayette65.7036-665.584
89Akron65.7015-767.028
90Arkansas St65.6816-663.834
91Marshall65.4744-869.757
92Florida Atlantic65.0967-667.304
93Memphis65.0026-766.043
94Iowa St64.8812-1072.442
95UNLV64.7375-770.619
96San Jose St64.2886-667.005
97Central Florida64.2484-868.651
98Utah St64.2233-970.668
99Ohio U.63.5964-866.704
100Syracuse63.3203-973.546
101Florida Int'l63.2265-766.287
102Alabama-Birmingham63.0554-866.933
103Middle Tennessee St62.0725-765.369
104Wyoming61.7124-869.996
105Army61.3913-968.017
106Louisiana-Monroe61.0194-864.288
107Kent St60.5854-865.669
108Indiana60.4763-969.312
109Toledo60.3823-966.971
110San Diego St60.1902-1070.217
111Eastern Michigan58.8823-966.220
112Washington58.3740-1277.283
113New Mexico St58.2003-966.079
114Washington St57.6142-1174.407
115SMU57.4021-1170.816
116Tulane56.3572-1069.612
117Miami OH55.4932-1066.734
118Western Kentucky53.8092-1065.709
119Idaho52.8072-1066.955
120North Texas51.8851-1167.807

My New Computer Ratings Blog

As we get close to the start of the 2009 football season, it is time to get my computer ratings primed and going again, and this year I've decided to create this blog to use to publish the ratings and share some insights from the ratings each week.

To start, I'll post the final College and NFL ratings from last year, and for historical purposes may get prior years posted too. Using last years final ratings I'll also provide projections for season ending records for the upcoming year. Of course, since most teams, college and pro, change significantly, these will probably not be that accurate, but it gives a decent basis to start from and you can apply if you think a team has improved or not. The key thing in my projections is that they do take each teams individual schedule into account.

Then each week of the season, I'll post the ratings for the week along with updated projections and predictions for the upcoming week. As I do use the final ratings from last season as the starting point for this season, the first few weeks are a bit iffy on the projections and predictions, but I've found that is a much better starting point than treating each team as equal to start the year. And by mid-season what each team started the season at is pretty much full dampened out. But I'll also give an explanation for why the ratings do what they do.

In the past I've offered a service where I provide some additional details on trends against the spread that folks can use for "entertainment purposes" and I'll get that going again if there is interest.

I welcome comments and feedback so leave comments and I'll read them all.