Thursday, December 29, 2011

2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Preview - UCLA in the upset

The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl will take place on 12/31 pitting Illinois against UCLA. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Illinois is ranked #64 by the computer with a 6-6 record and a rating of 66.954 against a schedule strength of 67.967. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they declined a bit all year, their worst game being at Minnesota and best game being against Arkansas State. They are 3-4 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



UCLA is ranked #62 by the computer with a 6-7 record and a rating of 67.517 against a schedule strength of 72.215. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were wildly inconsistent, their worst game being at Arizona and best game being against California. They are 4-5 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-5 picking their games against the spread and 6-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 2 degrees through ASU and 3 degrees as follows:


2 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Arizona-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->California-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Colorado-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Oregon-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Utah-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Arizona_St-->Washington_St-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Minnesota-->Southern_Cal-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Ohio_State-->Colorado-->UCLA
3 Illinois-->Wisconsin-->Oregon_St-->UCLA


Against ASU, Illinois won 17-14 at home and UCLA won 29-28 at home.

The spread is Illinois by 3 and the computer disagrees picking UCLA by 0.6.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*.UCLA +3.0 over . Illinois 0.6 3.6 0.519 0.618

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.