Sunday, December 25, 2011

2011 AdvoCare Independence Bowl Preview - Missouri to win and cover

The Independence Bowl will take place on 12/26 pitting Missouri against North Carolina. A subscription for all previews a week in advance of the games is available.

Missouri is ranked #18 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 77.245 against a schedule strength of 71.774. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were fairly consistent, their worst game being at Arizona State and best game being against Iowa State. They are 3-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 5-2 picking their games against the spread and 4-3 picking winners in their games.



North Carolina is ranked #47 by the computer with a 7-5 record and a rating of 70.408 against a schedule strength of 67.387. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were consistent early, then a bit up and down, their worst game being at Clemson and best game being against Wake Forest. They are 4-3 against the spread this year and the computer is 4-4 picking their games against the spread and 7-1 picking winners in their games.



The teams are separated by 3 degrees in only 2 ways as follows:


3 Missouri-->Kansas-->Georgia_Tech-->North_Carolina
3 Missouri-->Kansas_St-->Miami_FL-->North_Carolina


The spread is Missouri by 4 and the computer agrees picking them by 7. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*Missouri -4.0 over .. North Carolina 7.0 3.0 0.795 0.638

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.