Monday, February 22, 2010

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 2/21/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 21st.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Projected 65 team college basketball tournament teams

The College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 14th.

And rather than just post the rankings here, instead, the list below are the current teams that would make the 65 team tourney using the highest ranked team from the 31 conferences and the next 34 highest rated teams to fill out the bracket.  Those teams with an asterisk are the highest rated from their conference and thus the projected automatic bid.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Kansas*95.93124-180.158+0, +0.590
2Duke*94.44521-481.311+1, +0.562
3Syracuse*92.93224-279.593-1, -2.061
4Villanova92.67422-281.183+2, +0.701
5Kansas St92.25419-481.665+0, +0.010
6Purdue*91.81521-380.066+3, +0.725
7West Virginia91.67719-582.987-3, -0.933
8Kentucky*91.22024-178.458+0, -0.243
9Wisconsin90.59119-681.269-2, -0.959
10Ohio State90.39020-679.141+6, +0.924
11Baylor90.29218-579.880-1, -0.435
12Brigham Young*90.13622-377.564+1, -0.185
13Texas90.09320-579.684-2, -0.298
14Georgetown DC89.98218-682.220-2, -0.355
15Marquette89.60116-879.541-1, -0.070
16Missouri89.42518-778.441-1, -0.068
17Gonzaga*89.28220-479.566+2, +0.722
18California*88.66717-881.593+2, +0.231
19Maryland88.44615-779.684-2, -0.710
20Xavier OH*88.32517-781.190+11, +0.855
21Dayton87.96117-779.456+6, +0.282
21Michigan St87.96120-680.675-3, -0.764
23New Mexico87.81223-379.143+10, +0.477
24Butler*87.80623-479.669+2, +0.126
25Pittsburgh87.77419-680.522+3, +0.134
26Louisville87.75416-981.017-5, -0.389
27Vanderbilt87.62418-580.500+5, +0.235
28Utah St*87.60019-678.090+1, +0.059
29Texas A&M87.56817-680.880+1, +0.033
30Wake Forest87.44718-580.998+4, +0.176
31Temple87.35020-580.246+7, +0.896
32Clemson87.07118-779.815+4, +0.112
33Georgia Tech87.00716-880.771-9, -0.847
34Virginia Tech86.95820-477.091+14, +1.036
35Mississippi86.65717-779.596+0, -0.507
36St Mary's CA86.61720-578.039-13, -1.344
37Old Dominion*86.47120-778.742+7, +0.418
38UTEP*86.43719-575.866+2, +0.232
39Tennessee86.40918-680.105-14, -1.305
40UNLV86.35018-680.056-18, -1.628
41Mississippi St86.09618-777.793+6, +0.142
42Richmond85.96720-679.074+19, +0.912
42Washington85.96717-879.966+7, +0.092
44Oklahoma St85.96317-778.753+9, +0.368
45San Diego St85.94616-779.631+9, +0.358
46Northern Iowa*85.75322-377.804-9, -0.783
47Florida St85.55818-779.827+4, -0.141
48Arizona St85.50718-878.618+4, -0.182
57Siena*84.89022-576.733-12, -1.114
59Murray St*84.70922-372.453+7, +0.529
68Cornell NY*83.64519-476.179-25, -2.451
84Kent St*82.51417-878.003-6, -0.464
90Wofford*81.66418-876.071+5, +0.117
91Montana*81.56916-875.902-3, -0.707
98Sam Houston St*81.22814-575.901+6, +0.235
117IUPUI*79.64316-976.133+4, +0.274
125Coastal Carolina*78.94818-571.473-11, -0.855
139Belmont*78.52616-1075.616+3, +0.242
141Morgan St*78.50619-773.824-17, -0.747
147Western Kentucky*78.06715-1275.647+10, +0.521
151Long Beach St*77.79710-1379.964+5, +0.162
161Stony Brook*77.30517-771.832+21, +1.001
181Quinnipiac*76.07118-769.348-1, -0.317
199Lehigh*75.14116-971.702-13, -0.667
244Texas Southern*71.76410-1172.578+5, +0.129

Monday, February 8, 2010

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 2/7/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 7th.

In the NBA, the top-3 are the same, but Utah swaps spots with the Lakers.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Cleveland90.41441-1183.521+0, +0.169
2Utah88.47231-1883.598+1, +0.538
3LA Lakers88.29639-1383.346-1, -0.313
4Orlando87.43734-1783.673+1, +0.001
5Denver87.22334-1783.541-1, -0.411
6Oklahoma City86.86229-2183.902+1, +0.445
7Atlanta86.42432-1783.614-1, -0.124
8San Antonio86.19129-2082.893+1, +0.265
9Phoenix85.76431-2184.043+6, +1.121
10Boston85.67832-1783.494-2, -0.321
11Portland85.07030-2383.826+0, -0.222
12Charlotte85.05824-2584.031-2, -0.794
13Dallas84.35731-1984.135-1, -0.760
14Milwaukee84.21423-2683.862+6, +0.785
15Houston84.18627-2384.249+4, +0.378
16Toronto84.10128-2383.732+0, -0.538
17Miami83.88424-2784.242-3, -0.789
18Memphis83.87926-2484.005-5, -0.929
19Chicago83.76824-2584.121-2, -0.702
20New Orleans83.43727-2483.575-2, -0.663
21Philadelphia82.42619-3183.421+1, +1.099
22LA Clippers81.63321-2984.048-1, +0.200
23New York81.07519-3183.090+0, +0.291
24Indiana80.53318-3383.444+3, +0.846
25Washington79.88517-3283.505+1, -0.174
26Sacramento79.78616-3484.316-1, -0.312
27Golden State79.61113-3684.156-3, -0.574
28Minnesota79.50913-3883.862+1, +1.112
29Detroit78.42717-3283.605-1, -0.410
30New Jersey74.8424-4684.197+0, +0.181

The college top-25 is listed below and show the top-3 staying the same but WVU and Wisconsin making the big leaps up to #4 and #7 respectively.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Kansas 95.341 22-1 79.714 +0, -0.919
2 Syracuse 94.993 23-1 79.554 +0, +0.697
3 Duke 93.883 19-4 81.081 +0, -0.061
4 West Virginia 92.610 19-3 82.086 +7, +1.486
5 Kansas St 92.244 18-4 81.926 +0, +0.274
6 Villanova 91.973 20-2 80.641 -2, -1.273
7 Wisconsin 91.550 18-5 81.539 +6, +1.320
8 Kentucky 91.463 22-1 78.560 -1, +0.213
9 Purdue 91.090 19-3 80.112 +1, -0.096
10 Baylor 90.727 16-5 79.236 -1, -0.463
11 Texas 90.391 19-4 79.524 +1, -0.510
12 Georgetown DC 90.337 17-5 81.900 -4, -0.871
13 Brigham Young 90.321 21-3 78.098 -7, -1.044
14 Marquette 89.671 15-8 79.708 +0, -0.538
15 Missouri 89.493 17-6 77.979 +2, -0.146
16 Ohio State 89.466 18-6 78.730 +0, -0.249
17 Maryland 89.156 15-6 78.909 +4, +0.863
18 Michigan St 88.725 19-5 80.402 -3, -1.084
19 Gonzaga 88.560 18-4 79.987 +16, +1.638
20 California 88.436 15-8 82.062 +3, +0.174
21 Louisville 88.143 15-8 80.153 +5, +0.460
22 UNLV 87.978 18-4 79.668 +18, +1.514
23 St Mary's CA 87.961 20-3 77.191 -2, -0.332
24 Georgia Tech 87.854 16-6 80.247 -6, -1.145
25 Tennessee 87.714 18-4 79.271 +4, +0.261

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Congratulations New Orleans

And then there were the Saints.  The team that was #1 every week of the year since week 2 and the team that the computer picked to win the Super Bowl despite Vegas having the Colts by 6 won the Super Bowl to bring the first championship to New Orleans.

As can be seen in the final ratings/rankings, the win extends the Saints lead to over 2 ratings points over new #2 Minnesota.  Interestingly, the Colts fall all the way to #4 as the computer has to use the 31-17 final score even though that isn't indicative of how close the game was.  Had the game finished at 24-17 the Colts would have stayed #2 narrowly ahead of Minnesota.

For the post season, the computer did well going 6-4-1 against the spread and 8-3 picking winners.  Coupled with the 148-102-6 against the spread and 166-90 picking winners in the regular season, all in all a good year in the picking department.

Super Bowl XLIV Preview

Here is the full Super Bowl XLIV preview that was sent to newsletter subscribers awhile ago and is now on the web-site.  Previews for all of the 2010 NFL playoffs here.

The Saints and Colts will meet in the Super Bowl on February 7 in Miami.

The Saints are ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-3 record and a rating of 87.906 against a schedule strength of 80.664.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows that apart from the 3 game stretch where they were perhaps not playing to win they were pretty consistent and were the clear #1 all year.  However, the Arizona game rated up where they'd been all year but the game against Minnesota didn't as much.  They are 9-8-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 9-8-1 picking their games against the spread and 14-4 picking winners in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000&chxt=x,y&chls=0,1,0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss&chdlp=t&chds=50,110&chtt=1 New_Orleans 87.906&chd=t:-1,82.559,100.240,96.004,96.085,-1,94.417,93.932,89.826,91.529,78.682,93.884,99.777,83.831,90.626,75.850,70.826,73.929,-1,97.934,86.971|82.778,83.176,90.354,95.099,96.652,95.581,95.163,95.306,94.940,93.846,91.091,91.421,92.317,91.565,91.529,90.327,88.801,87.593,87.461,88.060&chxl=0:||DET|@PHI|@BUF|NYJ|bye|NYG|@MIA|ATL|CAR|@STL|@TAM|NWE|@WAS|@ATL|DAL|TAM|@CAR|bye|ARI|MIN|1:|50|60|70|80|90|100|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,22,1|o,00FF00,0,02,42,1|o,00FF00,0,03,38,1|o,00FF00,0,04,38,1|o,00FF00,0,06,32,1|o,00FF00,0,07,39,1|o,00FF00,0,08,36,1|o,00FF00,0,09,36,1|o,00FF00,0,10,28,1|o,00FF00,0,11,36,1|o,00FF00,0,12,38,1|o,00FF00,0,13,35,1|o,00FF00,0,14,42,1|o,FF0000,0,15,43,1|o,FF0000,0,16,43,1|o,FF0000,0,17,43,1|o,00FF00,0,19,34,1|o,00FF00,0,20,38,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|t12,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t1,0000FF,1,19,15,1|h,000000,0,0.63,1,1

The Colts are ranked #2 with a 16-2 record and a rating of 86.548 against a schedule strength of 80.619.  Their performance chart can be found below and shows they too, except for the dip when they rested players, were consistently very good and ranked #2 much of the year.  They are 11-5-2 against the spread and the computer is 9-7-2 predicting them against the spread and 14-4 picking the winner in their games.

chart?chs=800x375&cht=lc&chco=000000,0000FF,00FF00,FF0000&chxt=x,y&chls=0,1,0&chdl=Current|Weekly|Win|Loss&chdlp=t&chds=50,110&chtt=2 Indianapolis 86.548&chd=t:-1,77.400,88.532,97.648,86.858,96.644,-1,86.682,83.323,83.794,84.577,90.833,93.394,88.244,89.323,85.000,71.685,65.404,-1,97.233,95.485|86.135,84.077,83.051,86.074,89.427,90.919,91.548,91.372,89.373,89.121,89.265,89.560,89.780,89.614,90.044,89.288,87.074,84.925,84.953,85.885&chxl=0:||JAC|@MIA|@ARI|SEA|@TEN|bye|@STL|SFO|HOU|NWE|@BAL|@HOU|TEN|DEN|@JAC|NYJ|@BUF|bye|BAL|NYJ|1:|50|60|70|80|90|100|110&chm=o,00FF00,0,01,31,1|o,00FF00,0,02,40,1|o,00FF00,0,03,41,1|o,00FF00,0,04,28,1|o,00FF00,0,05,40,1|o,00FF00,0,07,30,1|o,00FF00,0,08,35,1|o,00FF00,0,09,36,1|o,00FF00,0,10,39,1|o,00FF00,0,11,43,1|o,00FF00,0,12,42,1|o,00FF00,0,13,34,1|o,00FF00,0,14,34,1|o,00FF00,0,15,37,1|o,FF0000,0,16,43,1|o,FF0000,0,17,43,1|o,00FF00,0,19,38,1|o,00FF00,0,20,39,1|x,0000FF,1,-1,8,1|t11,0000FF,1,01,15,1|t13,0000FF,1,02,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,03,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,04,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,05,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,06,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,07,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,08,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,09,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,10,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,11,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,12,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,13,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,14,15,1|t2,0000FF,1,15,15,1|t3,0000FF,1,16,15,1|t8,0000FF,1,17,15,1|t7,0000FF,1,18,15,1|t5,0000FF,1,19,15,1|h,000000,0,0.60,1,1

The teams did not play head to head but are separated by 2 degrees in 6 ways as follows:

2 New_Orleans-->Arizona-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->Buffalo-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->Miami-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->New_England-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->NY_Jets-->Indianapolis
2 New_Orleans-->St_Louis-->Indianapolis

Against Arizona, Indy won early in the year 31-10 on the road (when the Cardinals were playing better on the road than at home) and the Saints won 45-14 just last week at home.  The Saints beat Buffalo 27-7 on the road early and the Colts lost 30-7 on the road when mailing it in week 17.  Against Miami Indy won 27-23 early on the road and New Orleans won 46-34 also on the road mid-season.  The Colts eked out the 35-34 win at home over the Patriots while the Saints won 38-17 at home.  Indy played the Jets twice losing 29-15 when mailing it in but winning 30-17 when it mattered while the Saints won 24-10 early.  And the Colts beat the Rams 42-6 on the road mid-season and the Saints won narrowly 28-23 a few weeks later.

From the results alone, edge would seem to be the Saints just because they won every one of the common opponents games and the Colts lost 2.  But those 2 were when the Colts rested players and the Saints bad games just weren't against common opponents.  Apart from those 2 losses, the common opponents is pretty close with NO an edge with Miami and the Pats and Indy the edge with the Rams.

The early spread is all over the place, all picking the Colts, but ranging from 2.5 to 6 points.  With the computer picking the Saints by 1.4 the pick on the surface would be to get grab the +6 right away.  Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

*New_Orleans           +6.0 over ..         Indianapolis  1.4  7.4 0.541 0.712

However, if we dig a bit, we can look at a few scenarios.  First, we clearly know that the Colts rested players the last 2 weeks.  What effect would winning those 2 games of had on their rating?  Let's make both games 20-17 wins for the Colts.  That would have put the Colts #1 and the pick by 1.7.  Had they won each game 27-17 instead, the pick would be Colts by 2.5 which reaches the lower end of the current spread range.

But, perhaps the Saints were resting too.  Let's assume the Dallas game was valid but then they rested the last 2 weeks and would have won 20-17 in each game.  Coupled with the larger Colts wins scenario above, this would shrink the pick to Colts by 0.5.

So, even with the scenarios, the strongest pick would continue to be Saints plus the 6, although some scenarios clearly have the Colts the pick to win rather than the Saints.  Use the information as you will, and let me know if you have any questions or other scenarios you'd like run.

Enjoy!

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

NBA and College Basketball Rankings through 1/31/2010

The NBA and College basketball ratings and rankings have been updated on the web-site through games played Sunday the 31st.

In the NBA, the top-3 remain the same with Cleveland, the Lakers, and Utah, and only Denver moving past Orlando is the only change in the top-7.  All these teams are close though so a loss or big win here and there can cause movement.

In College, Kansas remains #1 and Syracuse moves to #2.  Duke goes 1-1 during the week and drops to #3, Villanova stays at #4, and KState moves up 2 spots to #5 dropping BYU who had a loss to #6.