Sunday, February 5, 2012

Giants vs Patriots Superbowl Preview

The Giants play New England on 2/5 in the Superbowl.

New York is ranked #5 by the computer with a 12-7 record and a rating of 85.925 against a schedule strength of 83.375. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were up and down but finished very strong, their worst game being against Washington and best game being at Green Bay. They are 11-7-1 against the spread this year and the computer is 8-9-1 picking their games against the spread and 7-11 picking winners in their games.



New England is ranked #1 by the computer with a 15-3 record and a rating of 89.244 against a schedule strength of 80.935. Their performance chart can be found below and shows they were pretty consistent, their worst game being at Buffalo and best game being at Philadelphia. They are 10-8 against the spread this year and the computer is 6-11 picking their games against the spread and 13-4 picking winners in their games.



The teams played head to head and are separated by 2 degrees through ? as follows:


2 NY_Giants-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Buffalo-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Dallas-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Miami-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Miami-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->NY_Jets-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Philadelphia-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->New_England
2 NY_Giants-->Washington-->New_England


The spread was New England by 3.5 and has moved to around 3 and the computer agrees picking them by 3.3. Here is the pick using the format from the newsletter:

.NY Giants +3.5 over *. New England 3.3 0.2 0.603 0.506

Enjoy!


Newsletter pick format:

The x denotes the home team. The * denotes the pick to win the game. The . is just a place holder. The number before "over" is the best line I've found typically from Maddux Sports. The team on the left is the pick against the spread. The first column after the second team is what the computer predicts the winning team will win by. The next column is the difference between the Vegas line and that prediction. The next column is the confidence of my pick to win. The last column is the confidence of the pick against the spread.