Week 8 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

Starting with this post, I will be projecting the 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings.  My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams.  As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.  Note that I'm doing this a bit late this week and so the ratings used are as of last Sunday so some teams will not have their latest games reflected.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Purdue, Oregon State, St. Joe's, and Virginia Tech.  The first 4 left out are Illinois, Minnesota, Wyoming, and Pitt.  The ratings are very close though and with most of the meaningful games left to be played, much could change.  But the key thing is that some teams you might think will make it comfortably like a 10-3 Purdue, 11-2 Illinois, or 11-2 Pitt, are currently right around the bubble due to weaker early schedules (#'s 263, 257, and 290 of 345).

What may also be a surprise is that some teams, like 7-5 Belmont or 7-4 New Mexico State are ranked high enough that they would be in even if they weren't the highest ranked team in their conference.  This is because they have played much tougher schedules early in the year (#'s 58 and 90).

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Missouri*	87.667	12-0	64.260	+0, -3.003
2	Baylor	87.426	11-0	69.896	+2, +0.765
3	Ohio State*	87.188	12-1	68.827	+2, +0.835
4	Syracuse*	87.097	13-0	69.565	-2, -0.672
5	Wisconsin	86.994	11-2	70.326	-2, -0.092
6	North Carolina*	86.629	11-2	72.725	+1, +1.034
7	Kentucky*	86.155	11-1	68.109	-1, +0.265
8	Florida	85.609	10-2	70.241	+6, +1.244
9	Indiana	85.066	12-0	66.027	+2, -0.061
10	UNLV*	84.830	11-2	73.853	+7, +1.515
11	Marquette	84.658	11-1	70.928	+1, -0.284
12	Kansas St	83.968	10-1	70.775	+16, +2.047
13	Michigan St	83.869	11-2	70.225	+0, -0.638
14	Murray St*	83.829	10-0	71.436	-5, -1.351
15	Duke	83.730	10-1	74.494	+0, -0.078
16	Louisville	83.426	12-0	69.137	-8, -1.828
17	Kansas	83.418	8-3	74.405	+4, +0.704
18	Georgetown DC	83.310	9-1	68.083	+4, +0.605
19	Ohio U.*	83.201	10-1	72.170	+10, +1.478
20	Creighton*	82.865	10-1	69.236	-4, -0.779
21	St Louis U.*	82.749	10-1	67.706	-1, +0.030
22	California*	82.699	10-3	70.550	-12, -2.437
23	Wichita St	82.638	8-2	70.955	+2, +0.234
24	St Mary's CA*	82.353	9-2	70.123	-6, -0.888
25	Virginia	81.881	10-1	67.614	-6, -1.139
26	Brigham Young	81.805	9-3	70.255	+8, +0.505
27	Connecticut	81.656	10-1	70.357	-4, -1.012
28	Marshall*	81.435	8-2	71.529	+3, -0.103
29	Alabama	80.793	9-3	72.990	+12, +0.645
30	Long Beach St*	80.235	5-6	79.785	+7, -0.535
31	Harvard*	80.224	9-1	71.502	+1, -1.206
32	Gonzaga	80.204	9-2	71.370	+8, -0.028
33	Seton Hall	80.135	11-1	68.757	+11, +0.310
34	Northern Iowa	80.114	9-2	73.021	-8, -2.202
35	Oklahoma	80.093	9-1	67.831	+0, -0.795
36	Florida St	79.995	8-4	71.742	-6, -1.610
37	Southern Miss	79.865	9-2	73.971	-10, -2.118
38	West Virginia	79.778	9-3	71.407	+4, -0.121
39	Middle Tennessee St*	79.703	10-2	69.828	+11, +0.479
40	Memphis	79.666	6-5	75.447	-1, -0.697
41	Michigan	79.615	9-2	69.338	-5, -1.166
42	Denver	79.558	10-2	71.156	-9, -1.822
43	Texas	79.439	9-3	68.362	-5, -1.238
44	Mississippi St	79.226	12-1	66.939	+2, -0.312
45	Iona*	79.147	10-2	72.435	-2, -0.711
46	New Mexico	79.082	9-2	68.894	+5, -0.099
47	Temple	79.002	7-3	74.710	+11, +0.132
48	San Diego St	78.981	11-2	69.660	+0, -0.453
49	Northwestern	78.971	10-2	70.236	+0, -0.342
50	Belmont*	78.935	7-5	73.047	+5, -0.046
51	Stanford	78.927	10-2	67.164	-27, -3.636
52	Virginia Tech	78.926	10-3	69.102	+1, -0.176
53	St Joseph's PA	78.633	9-3	71.772	-8, -1.132
54	New Mexico St*	78.454	7-4	71.860	-2, -0.688
55	Oregon St	78.348	10-2	65.280	+1, -0.580
56	Purdue	78.296	10-3	68.606	+10, +0.825
59	VA Commonwealth*	77.724	9-3	69.554	+4, -0.198
65	Wagner*	77.169	8-3	70.464	+15, +1.023
67	North Dakota St*	76.936	7-3	70.443	+0, -0.520
68	Lamar*	76.829	7-4	73.732	-4, -0.776
76	Lehigh*	75.821	8-4	69.244	+7, -0.066
87	Cleveland St*	74.995	10-2	71.858	+7, -0.277
89	Davidson*	74.975	6-4	74.044	-13, -1.483
112	Charleston Southern*	73.135	5-4	71.328	+19, +0.919
121	Morgan St*	72.610	2-7	75.871	+35, +1.420
122	Weber St*	72.559	6-3	71.089	-6, -0.449
180	Vermont*	69.225	6-7	69.591	+21, +0.372
264	Mississippi Valley St*	64.385	1-10	80.496	+8, -0.193