Thursday, December 29, 2011

Week 8 NCAA College Basketball Tournament Teams Projection

Starting with this post, I will be projecting the 68 NCAA tournament teams using my rankings.  My methodology, for now at least, is to take the highest ranked team from each of the 31 conferences and select them as the automatic qualifier, and then select the next 37 highest ranked teams.  As teams actually automatically qualify, they will be used instead.

The list is below, but will also be posted on the web-site each week.  Note that I'm doing this a bit late this week and so the ratings used are as of last Sunday so some teams will not have their latest games reflected.

With this list, we can take a look at the last 4 in, first 4 left out, and other observations.

The last 4 at large teams making this list are Purdue, Oregon State, St. Joe's, and Virginia Tech.  The first 4 left out are Illinois, Minnesota, Wyoming, and Pitt.  The ratings are very close though and with most of the meaningful games left to be played, much could change.  But the key thing is that some teams you might think will make it comfortably like a 10-3 Purdue, 11-2 Illinois, or 11-2 Pitt, are currently right around the bubble due to weaker early schedules (#'s 263, 257, and 290 of 345).

What may also be a surprise is that some teams, like 7-5 Belmont or 7-4 New Mexico State are ranked high enough that they would be in even if they weren't the highest ranked team in their conference.  This is because they have played much tougher schedules early in the year (#'s 58 and 90).

Stay tuned for more updates as the season progresses.

1Missouri*87.66712-064.260+0, -3.003
2Baylor87.42611-069.896+2, +0.765
3Ohio State*87.18812-168.827+2, +0.835
4Syracuse*87.09713-069.565-2, -0.672
5Wisconsin86.99411-270.326-2, -0.092
6North Carolina*86.62911-272.725+1, +1.034
7Kentucky*86.15511-168.109-1, +0.265
8Florida85.60910-270.241+6, +1.244
9Indiana85.06612-066.027+2, -0.061
10UNLV*84.83011-273.853+7, +1.515
11Marquette84.65811-170.928+1, -0.284
12Kansas St83.96810-170.775+16, +2.047
13Michigan St83.86911-270.225+0, -0.638
14Murray St*83.82910-071.436-5, -1.351
15Duke83.73010-174.494+0, -0.078
16Louisville83.42612-069.137-8, -1.828
17Kansas83.4188-374.405+4, +0.704
18Georgetown DC83.3109-168.083+4, +0.605
19Ohio U.*83.20110-172.170+10, +1.478
20Creighton*82.86510-169.236-4, -0.779
21St Louis U.*82.74910-167.706-1, +0.030
22California*82.69910-370.550-12, -2.437
23Wichita St82.6388-270.955+2, +0.234
24St Mary's CA*82.3539-270.123-6, -0.888
25Virginia81.88110-167.614-6, -1.139
26Brigham Young81.8059-370.255+8, +0.505
27Connecticut81.65610-170.357-4, -1.012
28Marshall*81.4358-271.529+3, -0.103
29Alabama80.7939-372.990+12, +0.645
30Long Beach St*80.2355-679.785+7, -0.535
31Harvard*80.2249-171.502+1, -1.206
32Gonzaga80.2049-271.370+8, -0.028
33Seton Hall80.13511-168.757+11, +0.310
34Northern Iowa80.1149-273.021-8, -2.202
35Oklahoma80.0939-167.831+0, -0.795
36Florida St79.9958-471.742-6, -1.610
37Southern Miss79.8659-273.971-10, -2.118
38West Virginia79.7789-371.407+4, -0.121
39Middle Tennessee St*79.70310-269.828+11, +0.479
40Memphis79.6666-575.447-1, -0.697
41Michigan79.6159-269.338-5, -1.166
42Denver79.55810-271.156-9, -1.822
43Texas79.4399-368.362-5, -1.238
44Mississippi St79.22612-166.939+2, -0.312
45Iona*79.14710-272.435-2, -0.711
46New Mexico79.0829-268.894+5, -0.099
47Temple79.0027-374.710+11, +0.132
48San Diego St78.98111-269.660+0, -0.453
49Northwestern78.97110-270.236+0, -0.342
50Belmont*78.9357-573.047+5, -0.046
51Stanford78.92710-267.164-27, -3.636
52Virginia Tech78.92610-369.102+1, -0.176
53St Joseph's PA78.6339-371.772-8, -1.132
54New Mexico St*78.4547-471.860-2, -0.688
55Oregon St78.34810-265.280+1, -0.580
56Purdue78.29610-368.606+10, +0.825
59VA Commonwealth*77.7249-369.554+4, -0.198
65Wagner*77.1698-370.464+15, +1.023
67North Dakota St*76.9367-370.443+0, -0.520
68Lamar*76.8297-473.732-4, -0.776
76Lehigh*75.8218-469.244+7, -0.066
87Cleveland St*74.99510-271.858+7, -0.277
89Davidson*74.9756-474.044-13, -1.483
112Charleston Southern*73.1355-471.328+19, +0.919
121Morgan St*72.6102-775.871+35, +1.420
122Weber St*72.5596-371.089-6, -0.449
180Vermont*69.2256-769.591+21, +0.372
264Mississippi Valley St*64.3851-1080.496+8, -0.193